SARS-CoV2 Variants of Concern - ECDC
#15,760
Just over a month ago, on December 29th, Colorado's governor announced the 1st detection of the more transmissible B.1.1.7 COVID variant in the United States - a variant which first began raising alarm bells in the UK in mid-December.
While surveillance and genomic testing for COVID variants remains severely limited in the United States, in just over 30 days two more variants (South African B.1.351 and Brazil's P.1) have been detected (in South Carolina & Minnesota), along with 435 B.1.1.7 (aka `UK' variants) spread across 30 states.
These numbers undoubtedly massively under represent the presence of COVID variants circulating in this country, and don't (yet) count homegrown variants such as the CAL.20C (see PrePrint: Emergence of a novel SARS-CoV-2 strain (CAL.20C) in Southern California, USA) that is rapidly gaining ground in California.
Despite these surveillance shortcomings, the number of variants reported has more than doubled over the past 7 days (see last weekend's CDC: Updated B.1.1.7 COVID Variants In The United States (n=195)).
Two weeks ago, in MMWR: Emergence Of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, Dec 29, 2020–Jan 12, 2021, we looked at forecasts that the highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant could become dominant in the United States by March.
When coupled with last week's announcement from the UK government that B.1.1.7 might be be linked to 30%-40% higher mortality (see UK: NERVTAG paper on COVID-19 variant of concern B.1.1.7), the UK variant is rightfully viewed as the most immediate threat.
But longer-term, the South African and Brazilian variants - which carry the E484K mutation - may prove the bigger problem, as early reports suggest they may partially negate the impact of current vaccines and antibody therapies.
Even longer-term, the rise of additional variants of concern would not be unexpected. Viruses evolve in order to survive. We should expect no less from SARS-CoV-2.
Overnight the CDC published their updated COVID Variant interactive map. Once again, Florida and California are reporting the lion's share of B.1.1.7 variants.
That said, some states are looking harder for variants than others, and no one should assume that states reporting zero (or very low) numbers that these variants are not present.
