#15,818
The welcomed drop in COVID cases in the United States (see chart above), and around the globe, over the past month is a welcomed - but uncertain - indicator of what lies ahead with our coronavirus pandemic.
We've seen peaks, followed by lulls, before. But this time, we've several viral X factors - in the form of emerging COVID variants - that we haven't had to deal with before.
As much as I'd like to start planning for a return to normalcy later this spring, it is far too soon to pop any champagne corks. Just over a month ago, in MMWR: Emergence Of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, Dec 29, 2020–Jan 12, 2021, the CDC warned that this more transmissible COVID variant was on track to become dominant in the United States in the next couple of months.
Since then, we've seen evidence that B.1.1.7 is not only 70% more transmissible, it may also produce more severe illness and more deaths than the previous `wild type' COVID (see UK: Updated NERVTAG Report On Increased Severity With COVID Variant B.1.1.7).
Yesterday we looked at two new cautionary MMWR reports on COVID Variants (see CDC MMWR: 2 Early Releases On COVID Variants (B.1.1.7 in Minnesota & B.1.351 In Zambia), while elsewhere we've seen worrisome reports on at least a half dozen other variants around the globe.
While no one can predict with any certainty what lies ahead, it seems likely that COVID has more than a few more cards to play. Viruses survive because they can evolve and adapt to a changing environment. A trait we'd do well to emulate.
The CDC has been posting updated interactive maps of the detection of COVID Variants within the United States since the first week of January, and updated those numbers against last night.
For now, these maps continue to focus on the `big three' variants of greatest concern.
- B.1.1.7 aka `UK' variant
- B.1.351 aka `South African' variant
- P.1 ak `Brazilian' variant
As the field becomes more crowded, and the significance of additional variants becomes clearer, we may see others included. The latest national update (below) reports 1549 variants detected across 43 states, an increase of 250 cases over the past 48 hours.
Since genomic sequencing is done on less than 1% of COVID positive cases, these numbers likely only represent a tiny fraction of the variants that are in circulation around the country. In some states, fewer than 1 in 1,000 cases are sequenced, meaning you should take the fact that 7 states are still reporting zero variants with a very large grain of salt.
While there are other variants - like CAL.20C, and 7 recently announced lineages with AA changes at Position 677 - which are known to circulate within the United States, for now the CDC only tracks the B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1 variants on this map.
Three days ago the ECDC issued an updated Rapid Risk Assessment On Increased Circulation Of COVID Variants of Concern (VOC) that warns that despite the recent drop in cases across Europe, these new variants pose a substantial risk of exacerbating the pandemic.
As weary as we may be of it, it is entirely possible that COVID is on the verge of finding its second wind.
