UK: Results From REACT (Real-Time Assessment Of Community Transmission of COVID-19) Study - Feb 2021

Credit Imperial College London

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In addition to its accelerated genomic sequencing of COVID 19, the UK has been conducting massive randomized antibody and PCR testing of the public - using at-home antibody tests and/or swabs - which are collected from more than 100,000 people for each testing period.

We've looked at results from past REACT studies (see here, here, and here).

Today we've the result of the second broad assessment of the community's infection rate (by PCR) since the new, more transmissible, B.1.1.7 variant became dominant. Swabs were collected between Feb 4th and 13th - roughly 7 to 8 weeks into the UK's heightened lockdown - and showed a substantial decline in positive tests over the previous month.

These results would seem to support the belief that the enhanced lockdown, announced 10 days before Christmas, has had a positive effect in reducing transmission of the variant. 

Two reports, first this summary followed by a press release from the Department of Health and Social Care. 

REACT-1: real-time assessment of community transmission of coronavirus (COVID-19) in February 2021

Published 18 February 2021

Methodology

A representative cross-section of volunteers tested themselves with swabs from 4 February to 13 February inclusive. Swabs were analysed using polymerase chain reaction (PCR).

Results

Swab results reported for the period 4 February to 13 February are referred to as round 9a. Swab results reported for the period 6 January to 22 January are referred to as round 8.

Over the 10 days of the partially completed round of testing, out of 85,473 swab results, 378 were positive, giving an overall weighted prevalence of 0.51% (95% CI, 0.45%, 0.59%) or 51 people per 10,000 infected. This represents a fall of more than two thirds since the previous (round 8 final) report where 1.57%, or 157 per 10,000 people were infected. Prevalence fell in the last half of the previous round, and this decline has continued into this current round.

Across the results for the latter half of round 8 (16 January to 22 January) and round 9a, a halving time of 14.6 (12.7, 17.1) days has been estimated, corresponding to R of 0.72 (0.69, 0.76)

Regional prevalence fell in all areas compared to the previous report in January. It was highest in the North West [1.38% to 0.91%] and North East (1.22% to 0.82%).There were substantial falls in prevalence compared to the last report in January in London (2.83% to 0.54%), West Midlands (1.66% to 0.33%), East of England (1.78% to 0.54%), South East (1.61% to 0.30%), East Midlands (1.16% to 0.51%). There was smaller fall in Yorkshire and The Humber (0.80% to 0.61%). Falls in regional prevalence are reflected in the regional R numbers, which are robustly below 1 in all regions other than the North East, North West and Yorkshire and The Humber.

There have been substantial falls in prevalence across all age groups between rounds 8 and 9a. The results now indicate that highest weighted prevalence is currently among 18 to 24 year olds at 0.89% (0.47%, 1.67%) and ages 5 to 12 years at 0.86% (0.60%, 1.24%). Lowest prevalence is among those 65 years and older at 0.30% (0.22%, 0.41%).

Large household size, living in a deprived neighbourhood and Asian ethnicity continue to be associated with increased prevalence, as do working in healthcare or care homes.

Conclusion

During the period 4 February to 13 February, SARS-CoV-2 virus was circulating with a lower prevalence than between 6 January to 22 January with 51 in 10,000 infected. There was strong evidence for a decline in prevalence averaged across the period 16 January to 22 January and 4 February to 13 February, with the most marked drop in regional prevalence evidenced in London.

Subsequent rounds of REACT-1 will allow further accurate assessment of trends in prevalence and transmission.

February interim findings from COVID-19 REACT-1 study published

Interim report findings show infections in England have fallen significantly since the last report in January.

Published 18 February 2021

From:Department of Health and Social Care

• Over 85,400 volunteers tested in England between 4 and 13 February 2021 as part of one of the largest COVID-19 studies
• Initial findings from Imperial College London and Ipsos MORI show infections fell by more than two-thirds from the last REACT report, with 1 in 196 people infected
• Infection levels remain high and it is critical everyone continues to follow the rules to help bring down infections even further and reduce pressure on the NHS

The interim findings from the ninth report of REACT-1, one of the country’s largest studies into COVID-19 infections in England, have been published today by Imperial College London and Ipsos MORI.

Over 85,400 volunteers were tested in England between 4 and 13 February to examine the levels of infection in the general population. The findings show infections in England have fallen significantly since the last report in January.

These latest findings demonstrate the impact lockdown restrictions are having on reducing infections across the country. Infections still remain high with more people in hospital than at the peak last April and hospital admissions for COVID-19 are at around 1,600 a day. It is vital everyone continues to play their part by staying at home and getting vaccinated when invited.

The main findings from the ninth REACT study show:

• national prevalence fell by two thirds from 1.57% to 0.51%, or 51 per 10,000 infected, compared to the last REACT report from 6 to 22 January
• a halving time of 15 days and an R number of 0.72, based on the prevalence observed at the end of the last report and today’s interim findings
• regional prevalence fell in all areas compared to the last REACT report from 6 to 22 January. It was highest in the North West (1.38% to 0.91%) and North East (1.22% to 0.82%).There were substantial falls in prevalence compared to the last report in January in London (2.83% to 0.54), West Midlands (1.66% to 0.33%), East of England (1.78% to 0.54%), South East (1.61% to 0.30%), East Midlands (1.16% to 0.51%). There was a smaller fall in Yorkshire and the Humber (0.80% to 0.61%)
• prevalence fell substantially across all age groups compared to the last REACT report from 6 to 22 January. Prevalence fell from 0.93% to 0.30% among the over-65s. Highest prevalence is among 18 to 24-year-olds at 0.89% and those aged 5 to 12 at 0.86%
• large household size, living in a deprived neighbourhood, and areas with higher numbers of Asian ethnicity individuals were associated with increased prevalence
• healthcare and care home workers were more likely to test positive compared to other workers

Health and Social Care Secretary Matt Hancock said:

“These findings show encouraging signs infections are now heading in the right direction across the country, but we must not drop our guard.

“Cases and hospital admissions remain high – over 20,000 COVID-19 patients are in hospital – so it is vital we all remain vigilant and follow the rules as our vaccination rollout continues at pace.

“I urge everyone to continue to stay at home – remember hands, face, space – and get your jab when you receive your invite.” 

 

While the vaccine programme continues to expand to protect as many people as possible, with over 15 million people vaccinated, we do not yet know whether being vaccinated stops someone from passing the virus on to others. It will also be some time before the impact of the vaccination programme reduces pressures on hospitals.

It is critical everyone continues to follow the rules, stays at home, reduces contact with others and maintains social distancing – remembering hands, face, space.

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