Credit Imperial College London
#15,846
Three weeks ago (link) we looked at the encouraging results of the second broad assessment of the community's infection rate (by PCR) since the new, more transmissible, B.1.1.7 variant became dominant.
Swabs for round 9a were collected between Feb 4th and 13th - roughly 7 to 8 weeks into the UK's heightened lockdown - and showed a substantial decline in positive tests over the previous month.
A second round of tests were collected between February 13 and February 23rd (round 9b) and compared to both round 9a and the previous round 8. While the number of cases remained substantially lower than in round 8, the rate of decrease appears to have slowed.
First a press release from the UK's Department of Health and Social Care, followed by a link to the latest results.Final findings from February COVID-19 REACT-1 study published
Findings from Imperial College London and Ipsos MORI show infections fell by two-thirds from the last REACT-1 report in January, with 1 in 204 people infected
From:Department of Health and Social Care Published:4 March 2021
- 165,456 volunteers tested in England between 4 and 23 of February 2021 as part of one of the largest COVID-19 studies
- The rate of decline in infections has slowed since the interim findings were published in February, showing it is critical everyone continues to follow the rules to help bring down infections
The final findings from the ninth report of REACT-1, one of the country’s largest studies into COVID-19 infections in England, have been published today by Imperial College London and Ipsos MORI. It follows the interim findings published in February.
The data shows infections in England have fallen by two-thirds since the last REACT report published in January.
Over 165,400 volunteers were tested in England between 4 and 23 of February to examine the levels of infection in the general population.
While there has been another fall in the number of cases in England, the speed of this decline is slowing. When compared to the interim findings published in February, there has been no change in prevalence in Yorkshire and The Humber and prevalence has risen slightly in London, the South East, East Midlands and West Midlands but has fallen in all other regions.
While the vaccination programme continues at pace, it is critical everyone continues to follow the rules, stays at home, reduces contact with others and maintains social distancing – remembering hands, face, space.
The main findings from the ninth REACT study show:Health and Social Care Secretary Matt Hancock said:
- national prevalence fell by two-thirds from 1.57% to 0.49%, or 49 per 10,000 people infected, compared to the last REACT report from 6-22 January
- a halving time of 31 days for prevalence and an R number of 0.86
- when comparing the first half of the reporting period (4 to 12 February) to the second half (13 to 23 February) there were apparent falls in: North East from 0.80% to 0.58%, North West from 0.89% to 0.48%, East of England from 0.53% to 0.40% and South West from 0.27% to 0.19%, and no apparent change in Yorkshire and The Humber. There were apparent rises in London from 0.53% to 0.66%, South East from 0.33% to 0.39%, East Midlands from 0.50% to 0.69% and West Midlands from 0.34% to 0.39%
- prevalence fell by 50% across all age groups compared to the REACT report for 6 to 22 January
- a substantial reduction in prevalence, compared to the last REACT report from 6 to 22 January, among those who work in health and social care and among those with public-facing roles, including delivery, transport and hospitality. It was higher among those who worked in education, school, nursery or childcare at 0.73% compared to 0.46% in those who did not
- prevalence was highest among Pakistani participants at 2.1% compared to white participants at 0.45% and Black participants at 0.83%
It is encouraging to see continued evidence of cases falling overall, and I want to thank everyone for sticking to the rules and supporting each other through this pandemic.
There is some cause for concern that our hard-won progress may be slowing down, and even reversing in some regions so it is important we remain vigilant – this is on all of us.
We have set out a cautious, but irreversible approach to easing restrictions but until we reach each milestone, we must all remember the virus is still here, and still dangerous. Please continue to stay at home – practice hands, face, space – and get your jab when you receive your invite so we can bring down infections further.
The vaccine programme continues to expand to protect as many people as possible, with over 20 million people vaccinated across the country. We are already seeing a significant impact of the vaccination programme on reducing hospitalisations and deaths, and it is vital people come forward for their vaccine when invited.
The latest study is published by the UK's Office of Statistics.
Official Statistics
REACT-1 study of coronavirus transmission: February 2021 final results
Published 4 March 2021
While the recent substantial reduction in COVID cases in the UK is certainly good news, earlier today WHO Europe's regional director Hans Kluge tweeted the following information, that cases are once again on the rise across Europe.
A reminder that short term successes should not lull us into complacency.
