Matt Hancock Press Conference - May 27th
#15,984
Just 6 weeks ago the `UK' B1.1.1.7 variant seemed completely dominant in the UK and their PHE announced their detection of the country's first (77) cases of the B.1.617 variant, and added it to their watch list as a VUI (Variant under Investigation).
Two weeks later, the PHE added two sublineages (B.1.617.2 & B.1.617.3), and the total number of B.1.617.x cases identified in the UK sat at about 400. Since then, more than 7,000 new cases have been identified, with B.1.617.2 making up about 95% of the mix.
Based on these testing results, it is apparent that the B.1.617.2 variant has easily caught up with, and has likely surpassed, the B.1.1.7 variant on its home soil. This has been a remarkably rapid dethroning of the highly transmissible `UK' variant, and should be warning to other nations of what they may face in the near future.
Late yesterday UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock gave a press briefing where he announced that 1/3 to 3/4th of all new cases are likely due to the B.1.617.x variant (video link). A small excerpt from his opening remarks follow:
". . . The latest data show that the number of cases of coronavirus are rising. Yesterday, we saw 3,542 new cases, the highest since the 12th of April. The variant first identified in India, so-called B1617.2 is still spreading. And the latest estimates are that more than half and potentially as many as three quarters of all new cases are now of this variant.
As we set out our roadmap, we always expected cases to rise. We must remain vigilant. The aim of course, is to break the link to hospitalizations and deaths, so that cases alone no longer require stringent restrictions on people’s lives. The critical thing to watch is the link from the number of cases to how many people end up in hospital. +
The increase in cases remains focused in hotspots, and we’re doing all we can to tackle this variant, wherever it flares up. Over the past six months, we now have built a huge testing capacity at our disposal, and we’re using this to surge testing into the eight hotspot areas. And in other places where cases are lower, but rising."
(Continue . . . )
As the following expert reaction, posted on the Science Media Centre website, makes clear - there is a lot about this variant we don't know yet.
Expert reaction to comments from matt hancock that more than half and up to three quarters of new uk covid-19 cases could be of the b.1.617.2 ‘indian’ variant
MAY 27, 2021
The Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, told a Downing Street press briefing this afternoon that up to three quarters of new COVID-19 cases in the UK could be of the B.1.617.2 variant first identified in India.
Prof Rowland Kao, the Sir Timothy O’Shea Professor of Veterinary Epidemiology and Data Science, University of Edinburgh, said:
“The higher proportion of the variant cases is at least in part due to the very low numbers of cases overall, that have resulted in the very low overall disease burden we see today. Thus even small outbreaks would produce a much higher proportion. It also reflects, at least in part, the fact that many of the communities into which it was first introduced are ones where conditions for higher rates of transmission (with higher density households, people working in jobs that make physical distancing difficult).Given that current estimates suggest the vaccine is less effective against this variant (particularly for those with only one dose), and that many working age adults are still unvaccinated or have had only one dose, then continued spread of this variant can only be expected. Evidence that it may also be inherently more transmissible must be monitored closely but is not yet definitive. Importantly we do not yet have evidence that suggests that this variant causes substantially more severe disease in vaccinated individuals. We must still be wary of contacts between the many who are still unvaccinated, especially those who are at higher risk of severe COVID – this is only likely to become more of a problem if cases do continue to rise, increasing the probability that they become infected.”
The rapid spread - and still unknown risks - of this variant explain why yesterday, in Australia: Greater Melbourne Declared COVID Hotspot - Enters New Lockdown, we saw such a robust response to a small number of community cases reported in Victoria, Australia.
Two days ago, in CDC U.S. Variant Update: B.1.1.7 Dominates While P.1 & B.1.617.2 Continue To Rise, we looked at the CDC's second biweekly update on the B.1.617.2 variant, and saw that - while still only making up about 1.3% of cases - that represents a 260% rise in just two weeks.
While US daily COVID cases - much like in the UK - have declined sharply over the past month or so, the spread of B.1.617.2 in the United States is something we'll have to watch closely in the weeks and months to come.
