Avian Flu Diary: NHC: 90% Chance Of Tropical Development In GOM Over Next 48 Hours

#16,024

The disturbed weather we've been watching in the Bay of Campeche (see NHC Keeping An Eye on Two Areas of Possible Tropical Development) is showing greater signs of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm, over the next 48 hours as it drifts north into the Gulf of Mexico.

From the 8am update from the National Hurricane Center.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread but disorganized cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move northward, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form over the west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next few days. Heavy rains should also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

While the intensity models don't currently do much with this system - other than a rainmaker - they aren't terribly reliable until after the system becomes better organized. Residents along the Texas and Northern Gulf coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system over the weekend.

Initial forecast track models (below) show it moving as far west as Brownsville, Tx and as far east as the panhandle of Florida, but that track should tighten up considerably once the system intensifies.

Regardless of this systems development and impact, we are just barely into the 6-month Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the closer we get to August-September-October, the stronger and more frequent these tropical threats will become.

This year's busy forecast, released in late May by NOAA (see NOAA predicts another active Atlantic hurricane season), calls for between 13 and 20 named storms. How many of those might impact the United States, and of what severity, is unknown.

So if you haven't done so already, plan a visit to NOAA's National Hurricane Preparedness web page, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe during the coming tropical season.