Avian Flu Diary: NHC Keeping An Eye on Two Areas of Possible Tropical Development

June 14th 5 am 5-Day Tropical Outlook

#16,016

Although it is still a bit early in the Atlantic Hurricane season to worry about major storms, last week - in June Tropical Climatology - NOAA Tropical Atlantic Forecast 2021 - we looked at the most likely regions (see map below) to generate tropical systems this time of year.

June Areas of Tropical Storm Genesis - Credit NOAA

True to form, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring 2 areas of activity that are each given a 50% chance to develop into a tropical system in the next few days. One off the Carolina coast, and the other in the Bay of Campeche.

The most immediate threat comes from the northernmost system off the Atlantic seaboard, which could produce some short-lived tropical weather - particularly for the Outer Banks - before it moves out to sea and dies over colder waters.

Towards the end of the week, the southernmost system may drift north and could impact Gulf Coast residents, but the models are still `iffy' on both strength and direction.

Today's 5 am 5-day Tropical Outlook reads:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

500 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of the low-pressure system offshore the North Carolina coast.

1. Updated: A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system is located about 120 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Satellite and radar data indicate that thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become more concentrated near the center of the low early this morning, and environmental conditions are expected to be at least marginally conducive for tropical cyclone formation. If this recent development trend continues, then a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form later today while the system moves northeastward away from the United States. The low will move over colder waters south of Nova Scotia on Wednesday, ending any opportunity for further development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A large area of cloudiness and showers located over the Bay of Campeche is associated with a broad low pressure area. Some slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next few days while it meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form late in the week when the system begins to move slowly northward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

While June tropical systems tend to be weaker than those that form later in the season, they are still capable of wreaking considerable damage. In 1957, Hurricane Audrey reach CAT 4 strength before it made landfall in eastern Texas and western Louisiana, where it claimed 550 lives.

This year's busy forecast, released in late May by NOAA (see NOAA predicts another active Atlantic hurricane season), calls for between 13 and 20 named storms. How many of those might impact the United States, and of what severity, is unknown.

So if you haven't done so already, plan a visit to NOAA's National Hurricane Preparedness web page, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe during the coming tropical season.