#16,075
When the Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) dominated the United States in early May, it peaked at around a 70% share of cases. Today - based on the CDC's latest NowCast projections - the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant, comprises more than 83% of all U.S. cases, further cementing its reputation of being perhaps the `fittest' COVID variant we've seen to date.
The once high-flying Alpha variant still hangs on to 2nd position, albeit with less than a 10% share. The rest of the field (P.1, Gamma, Beta, Iota, etc.) are all being increasingly marginalized (see CDC list above).
While the dominance of the Delta variant seems unshakable right now - as did Alpha 2 months ago - as more and more people are infected or vaccinated, the virus may find it harder to find a susceptible host, perhaps even breathing new life into one of the existing variants currently in decline.
Of course COVID could peak with Delta, and then simply begin to wane. But the pattern so far has been that after dominating for a time, the current COVID strain gives way to a new, and often improved, variant.
The prevalence of the Delta variant varies across the nation, with some regions well over 90%, while others are just approaching 70%. But the trajectory of Delta is unmistakable, so no matter where you live in the United States, Delta is now your biggest exposure risk.
While the number of cases we are seeing in the United States pales compared to where we were last winter, the average daily numbers have increased roughly 300% over the past two months, and are expected to increase further.
Deaths, while currently running about 200 a day, remain low but are climbing. And deaths are always a trailing indicator, often lagging 4 to 5 weeks behind the rise in cases.
What comes after Delta is anyone's guess. But COVID has managed to throw us one curveball after another, and may yet have more surprises in store.
Regardless, the challenge today is how to deal with the problem before us. While not 100% protective, vaccines, face covers, and avoiding crowds can go a long way towards reducing the spread of the virus.
Assuming, of course, we are willing to use them.
