#16,257
As the UKHSA charts above show, the number of COVID positive cases, deaths, and hospitalizations in the UK continues to rise, and that has NHS officials worried over their ability to cope with COVID and the expected return of seasonal viral infections this winter.
Five weeks ago, in The UK's Autumn/Winter Pandemic Plan `A' & `B' and Their Planned Reliance on Booster Shots, we looked at the UK government's plan for dealing with COVID this winter, which they hope will allow their nation to remain `open' without the restrictions of the past 18 months.
Their plan relies heavily on the continued uptake of COVID vaccines by the unvaccinated, the rollout of booster shots to millions of people over the next few months, along with bolstering the NHS, continuing to `Test, Trace and Isolate' COVID cases, and encouraging the use of antivirals (monoclonal antibodies) and other therapeutics.
While the `carrot' to this plan is a continued return to more a `normal' life, they did warn of a `stick'; a `Plan B' if `Plan A' doesn't work.
So that the public and businesses know what to expect, this document outlines a Plan B in England which would only be enacted if the data suggests further measures are necessary to protect the NHS. The Government remains committed to doing whatever it takes to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed.
(SNIP)
The Government’s Plan B prioritises measures which can help control transmission of the virus while seeking to minimise economic and social impacts. This includes:
a. Communicating clearly and urgently to the public that the level of risk has increased, and with it the need to behave more cautiously.b. Introducing mandatory vaccine-only COVID-status certification in certain settings.c. Legally mandating face coverings in certain settings.
The Government would also consider asking people once again to work from home if they can, for a limited period. The Government recognises this causes more disruption and has greater immediate costs to the economy and some businesses than the other Plan B interventions, so a final decision would be made based on the data at the time.Overnight the NHS Confederation - a membership body for organisations that commission and provide NHS services - called for the immediate move to Plan `B' as NHS resources continue to be stretched thin.
Enact ‘Plan B plus’ to avoid ‘stumbling into winter crisis’
Government must introduce measures, such as mandatory face coverings in crowded and enclosed spaces, without delay
19 October 2021
Health leaders are calling on the government to introduce measures, such as mandatory face coverings in crowded and enclosed spaces, without delay to keep people well and avoid the NHS from becoming overwhelmed this winter.
The NHS is seeing worrying increases in coronavirus cases in its hospitals and the community at a time when it is preparing for a busy winter period, its staff are close to burnout, and it is being expected to recover many of its services that were disrupted by the pandemic.
The NHS Confederation is warning that the extent of this recovery could be at risk without preemptive action over winter from the government and the public.
Last month, the government set out its COVID-19 winter strategy, which focused on building the population’s defenses through vaccinations and other pharmaceutical interventions, as well as test, trace and isolate measures, and public health messaging.
Within that, a ‘Plan B’ would be enacted if pressures on the NHS were deemed to be at risk of becoming unsustainable. Additional measures could include clear communications to the public that the level of risk has increased, introducing certificates for people’s COVID-19 vaccine status, and legally mandating people to wear face coverings in certain settings, in addition to considering asking people to work from home if they can.
Many of these measures, particularly around mask-wearing and COVID-19 certification, are already common in parts of Europe where the prevalence of the disease is lower.
The membership body is calling for these actions to be introduced sooner rather than later so that if cases of coronavirus still rise to worrying levels, the government can then introduce tougher measures, if needed.
Alongside this, the NHS Confederation believes that this should go further with a ‘Plan B plus’, calling on the public to mobilise around the NHS and do whatever they can to support frontline services this winter. This could include by:
- Getting vaccinated, including booster shots when invited.
- Turning up for scheduled healthcare appointments on time.
- Using frontline services responsibly, such as by only calling 999 in emergency situations and accepting appointments with primary care professionals other than GPs, such as practice nurses and community pharmacists, as well as remotely from both primary and secondary care, if offered and suitable
- Volunteering to support the NHS and joining or returning to the workforce, if eligible.
(Continue . . .)
This call for renewed COVID restrictions has not been universally embraced by UK officials, however, with Kwasi Kwarteng - A British Conservative Party politician serving as Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy of United Kingdom - rejecting the notion for now.
UK minister: Not time for coronavirus ‘plan B’
The UK's economy - hit by the dual impacts of COVID and BREXIT - continues to struggle, and anything that is seen as an impediment to recovery is an understandably hard sell to the ruling government.
Additionally, last July's long-delayed Lockdown Exit Day was sold to the public as the end of COVID restrictions, and going back on that promise would have a political cost as well.
Caught in the middle of all of this is the NHS, which now fears a worst-case scenario this winter (see UK: Preparing For A "Reasonable Worst-Case" Winter Scenario), where the delivery of medical services could be substantially degraded.
Whether that actually comes to fruition remains to be seen, but by the time the writing is on the wall, relatively minor restrictions - like resuming the wearing face masks in public - may no longer have the desired effect.
Unfortunately, during a pandemic, there are no easy answers. Both sides have legitimate concerns, and either course of action could have significant negative impacts.
Stay tuned. It's going to be a bumpy winter.
