#16,405
Except for a single week in early January of 2021- when UK cases counts briefly exceeded 60K per day - over the past 24 hours the UK has reported one of its highest daily case totals (n=58,194) since the pandemic began.
While the majority of these cases remain Delta, the emerging Omicron variant appears to be doubling every 2 to 3 days, and is forecast to become the dominant strain in the UK within a few weeks. Due to the limits of testing, the 448 omicron cases identified over the past 24 hours are almost certainly an undercount.
Putting aside the (as yet unresolved) debate over the severity of Omicron infection, each day seems to bring new estimates of this emerging variant's transmissibility, and ability to evade previous immunity, which is feared could lead to a major winter wave of coronavirus infections.
While some of the higher estimates - many based on early observations in South Africa - may not apply across all populations, Omicron does appear to be a genuine contender for the COVID throne.
That, combined with whatever remains of Delta in the new year - and seasonal influenza - is expected to provide a tremendous challenge to healthcare delivery systems around the globe.
It is worth noting that Denmark, with a population less than 1/10th that of the UK, has detected nearly as many Omicron cases (n=1220) as has the UK.
Today, Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland gave an address where she warned of a `Potential Tsunami' of Omicron cases, based on the latest modeling from the Scottish Government (link below).
Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic in Scotland (Issue No. 81)29 page PDF1.5 MB
A few excerpts from a much longer speech.
Published: 10 Dec 2021Statement given by the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at a media briefing in St Andrew's House, Edinburgh.(Excerpts)The purpose of today’s update is to level with you on what we know so far about spread in Scotland of the new Omicron variant - and also our estimate at this stage of what we are likely to face in the days and weeks to come.The fact is that we do face a renewed and a very severe challenge in the shape of the Omicron variant.To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing - indeed we may be starting to experience - a potential tsunami of infections.(SNIP)Now, in relation to the Omicron variant specifically, as of 5pm yesterday, there were 110 confirmed cases in Scotland. And to give some context to that, 10 days ago we reported a total of 9 confirmed cases.Now, these are confirmed cases and by that we mean that Omicron has been confirmed through genomic sequencing.There are two reasons why confirmed cases represent just the tip of the iceberg and shouldn’t really be looked at as the best indicator of the true prevalence of the variant in Scotland right now.The first reason is because genomic sequencing takes some time, much longer than processing a PCR test, so there is a time lag in these figures. But secondly, while in Scotland we do a lot of genomic sequencing, not all tests are or indeed can be analysed in that way.So a much better indicator of whether a case is Omicron or not, is whether the PCR test shows a specific genetic characteristic known as the S gene drop out. And you may have heard us talk about that previously.(SNIP)And, what they show, is that Omicron right now is rising exponentially. Indeed, what we are seeing in the data just now is perhaps the fastest exponential growth that we have seen in this pandemic so far.In the final week of November, if we look at all of the Covid cases recorded in Scotland, there were no days when the proportion of cases with the S Gene drop out was higher than 1%.However, by last Sunday, the 5 December, the proportion had risen to 2%. On Tuesday, it was just over 4%. On Wednesday it was almost 7%, and today, it is 15.5%.Now you might think that these are still relatively small percentages, but consider that trend. This is doubling on a very, very, rapid basis. Indeed, our estimate at this stage is that the doubling time for Omicron cases is between 2 and 3 days. And actually it may be closer to 2 days than to 3 days.Now, if that continues, and we have no reason at this stage to expect that it won’t, Omicron is going to very quickly overtake Delta as the dominant strain in Scotland.Indeed, I think we can now say with some confidence that we expect it to overtake Delta within days, not weeks. We estimate this will may be as early as the very beginning of next week.(SNIP)The best expert advice at this stage also tells us that that Omicron is more capable of re-infecting people who have had the virus previously.And – based on preliminary laboratory trials – the best evidence suggests it can evade to some extent the immunity conferred by vaccination.Now, and I want to underline – triple underline – this point. That does not mean that the vaccines will not significantly help us. Being less effective is not the same - nowhere near the same - as vaccines being ineffective.And booster doses, in particular, will help retain a higher level of vaccine efficiency.(SNIP)Even if the variant is generally a little bit less severe for most people – and let me stress we still don’t know if that is the case - but even if it is, and we certainly hope it will be, for some people it will still cause serious illness, hospitalisation, and, tragically, some people will die.But the overall impact point here is that even if a smaller percentage of people overall than is the case for Delta require hospital treatment, a small percentage – and a smaller percentage - of a bigger number will result in a massive number of cases who might need hospital care.And given the volume of people who could be infected by Omicron because of its greater transmissibility, even if most of those cases are mild, the number of cases of serious illness amongst those infections will put massive strain on the ability of the NHS to cope
While it is possible that nations are overreacting to the Omicron threat, the level of concern being expressed by world leaders has only intensified in recent days, as more information on its transmissibility has been released.
Even a less severe virus - in a large enough wave - could significantly disrupt healthcare delivery systems, supply chains, and other essential services.
While I hope that doesn't happen, it is prudent to prepare for a challenging winter ahead.
