Credit WHO Weekly Epi Report #105
Based on data reported to the World Health Organization (see chart above) COVID infections have dropped dramatically around the world (down 24% over last week), as have COVID-related deaths (down 6%).
Still, over 5.4 million cases and > 15,000 deaths were reported over the past 7 day reporting period.
The WHO does warn, however:
Current trends in reported COVID-19 cases and deaths should be interpreted with caution as several countries have been progressively changing COVID-19 testing strategies, resulting in lower overall numbers of tests performed and consequently lower numbers of cases detected. Additionally, data from countries are continuously updated by WHO to incorporate changes in reported COVID-19 cases and deaths made by countries retrospectively.
Since testing and reporting has become less rigorous globally, it is more difficult to spot, or interpret, trends. This sadly, is a trend we are also seeing extended to other infectious disease reporting (see MERS-CoV: Largely Forgotten, But Not Gone), despite the requirements of the 2005 IHR.
So, while somewhat reassuring, these numbers are likely not telling us the full story. Even though the Western Pacific region is reporting an 18% drop in cases, we've seen substantial increases in cases reported by Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong.
Vietnam is also reporting increased cases, as newer, more transmissible variants take control. And while their numbers are always suspect, Mainland China is reporting an uptick in cases as well. Whether these are long-term trends remains to be seen.
Over the course of the pandemic, we've often looked to Denmark's numbers, because of their relatively small population (5.8 million), their well-monitored universal healthcare system, and a high degree of genomic testing.
What happens in Denmark is often reflected in North America 3 to 6 weeks down the line, making them a useful barometer for the pandemic. So it is worth noting that - after 5 weeks of steady declines in COVID cases - yesterday they reported an 18% jump in cases over the previous week.
Interestingly, BA.5 remains fully in control (est. 95%), and for now, BA.4 continues to lose ground.
The number of Covid-19 infections is increasing for the first time in five weeks
The number of Danes infected with covid-19 is increasing for the first time in five weeks. It is now among the middle-aged that the infection is highest. This is shown in this week's trend report from the Statens Serum Institut.
Last edited on August 18, 2022
There is an increase in the number of new cases of covid-19 of 18% between week 31 and week 32, corresponding to the incidence in week 32 being 207 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The positive rate has increased to 27% in week 32 from 25% in week 31, while the number of PCR tests has increased by 5% between week 31 and week 32.
The infection increases in all age groups from week 31 to week 32, but is highest among the 40 to 59-year-olds. This is shown in this week's trend report for covid-19 and other respiratory infections from the Statens Serum Institut (SSI).
"The increasing infection must be seen in the light of the fact that people are now returning from summer holidays. Activity in our society is increasing, and people may also be more aware of getting tested for symptoms in connection with starting work and education" Professional Director Tyra Grove Krause
Especially in Region Central Jutland and North Jutland, the infection is increasing. There are the most infected people in Region Central Jutland (262 per 100,000 inhabitants) followed by Region Zealand (216 per 100,000 inhabitants).
Read more in this week's trend report - week 33 (pdf)Hospitalizations and deaths
The number of new admissions related to covid-19 has increased to 548 new admissions in week 32 from 526 new admissions in week 31. People aged 70 to 89 make up the largest group among the newly admitted.
The number of people hospitalized in intensive care units has also increased from 13 in week 31 to 18 in week 32. The proportion of hospitalizations among people hospitalized due to a covid-19 diagnosis (as opposed to with SARS-CoV-2) has increased from 55% in week 29 to 58% in week 30.
The number of covid-19-related deaths is provisionally 64 in week 32, which is a decrease from 80 in week 31. There are no signs of excess mortality in Denmark, but in the age group 75-84 years, the mortality this summer has been slightly above that expected level.
95 percent of the infected Danes are infected with BA.5
BA.5 is still the dominant variant and continues to slightly increase in proportion, where it makes up approximately 95% of the sequenced samples in week 32.
The proportion of cases with BA.4 is slightly decreasing with a proportion of 4% of the sequenced samples at week 32. There is still a low incidence of the subvariants BA.2.74 - BA.2.80. However, reservations must be made that a particularly large number of samples have not yet been sequenced in week 32.
While this week's uptick is worth watching, the persistence of BA.5 in Denmark has to be viewed as good news, since we are expecting to get a bivalent booster shot this fall with a BA.5 component. How long BA.5 can reign supreme is unknown, as there are several heir apparents in the wings.
