#17,090
The ILI (Influenza-like Activity) map from this week's CDC FluView report looks like what we'd normally expect to see in December or January - not the last week of October - making this the earliest start to the flu season since the pandemic flu year of 2009.
The CDC has released a preliminary estimate of the burden of this year's flu season (beginning Oct 1st), and already they estimate between 6900 and 15,000 people have been hospitalized with influenza this month, and between 360 and 1,000 deaths have occurred.
Influenza is always unpredictable, and it isn't clear whether this is the start of a long winter's siege, or presages a short, but sharp flu epidemic. We've seen early seasons fizzle out, or recede only to surge again later in the winter, sometimes due to a change in the dominant strain.
So far, H3N2 infections are outnumbering H1N1 by about 3 to 1. Generally, H3N2 seasons are more severe than H1N1, particularly for the elderly, but it is too early to predict the severity of this year's flu season.
How this year's flu will interact with the next wave of COVID, and our concurrent epidemic of RSV (see CDC: RSV Rates Rising Rapidly In The US) is an added concern. Some studies have suggested that co-infection can can significantly increase mortality (see The Lancet: SARS-CoV-2 Co-infection With Influenza Viruses, RSV, or Adenoviruses).
Suffice to say, if you intend to get a flu shot - and haven't - now would be a good time.
The Key points from this week's FluView Follow.
- Influenza activity continues to increase. Regions 4 (southeast) and 6 (south-central) are reporting the highest levels of flu activity.
- The first influenza-associated pediatric death of the 2022-2023 season was reported this week.
- CDC estimates that, so far this season, there have been at least 880,000 flu illnesses, 6,900 hospitalizations, and 360 deaths from flu.
- The cumulative hospitalization rate in the FluSurv-NET system is higher than the rate observed in week 42 during previous seasons going back to 2010-2011.
- An annual flu vaccine is the best way to protect against flu. Vaccination helps prevent infection and can also prevent serious outcomes in people who get vaccinated but still get sick with flu.
- CDC recommends that everyone ages 6 months and older get a flu vaccine annually.
- There are also prescription flu antiviral drugs that can be used to treat flu illness; those need to be started as early as possible.
Everyone needs to evaluate their own tolerance for risk. But in addition to being vaccinated, I'm still planing on wearing face covers in public places, and will use copious amounts of hand sanitizer.
