BA.5 - dominant since mid-summer - has dropped to 49.6% of reported cases. BA.4.6 has dropped slightly (again) this week, to 9.6%.
BF.7 has increased slightly, while the rest have either lost ground or remained roughly the same. The tag-team of BQ.1/BQ.1.1 is running strongest in the mid-Atlantic states, while BA.5 remains strongest in the Pacific Northwest (see map above).
Given the current trajectory, we should see BQ.1/BQ.1.1 eclipse BA.5 in the next three weeks here in the United States. The ECDC has already projected that they will become dominant in Europe in November (see ECDC Epidemiological Update: Omicron Variant BQ.1 Spread In The EU/EEA).
As we discussed at length in my last blog (see WHO: TAG-VE Statement on Omicron Sublineages BQ.1 and XBB), while we haven't seen any signs of increased severity with these new lineages, they do appear to have greater immune escape capabilities, which means we could see a lot of reinfections (and vaccine breakthrough infections) in the months ahead.
Add that to an expected heavy flu/RSV season ahead, and healthcare delivery systems around the country are apt to be under pressure again this winter.
Stay tuned.
