#17,018
In last week's Nowcast I mentioned that the number of Omicron variants jostling for position in the United States was increasing (the CDC showed 9 with discernible levels as of 11/5), writing:
In the short-term it appears that the tag-team of BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 have the inside track for becoming the dominant strains in the US this winter, but there are enough players in the wings to make it impossible to know what the COVID landscape will look like 90 days from now.
While BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 have continued to rise - and combined now make up > 44% of cases - two additional subvariants are now showing up in the surveillance; BN.1 and the return of BA.2 (likely a mix of BA.2.x subvariants).
BA.5 remains strongest in the Midwest, and has given the most ground in the Mid-Atlantic (region 3) and the South (region 4). While still commanding the highest percentage (29.7%) nationally, BA.5's 4-month reign appears about over.
This week's CDC NOWCAST has no fewer than 11 distinct subvariants with detectable levels of transmission.
So far, we've not seen any evidence that any of these new variants cause more severe illness than earlier strains, but many are not yet at a level that would send a strong signal. The CDC has also not reported detecting significant numbers of the XBB variant (see WHO: TAG-VE Statement on Omicron Sublineages BQ.1 and XBB) which has been making inroads mostly in Asia.
Due to its ability to continually reinvent itself, the future evolution and impact of COVID remains highly unpredictable. Over the past 5 weeks, the number of subvariants identified as comprising > 1% of cases in the United States has more than doubled (from 5 to 11).
