#17,105
Omicron BA.5, which peaked in late August at over 86% of all cases in the United States, continues to give ground to up-and-coming Omicron subvariants, particularly BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, and BF.7.
Two weeks ago the ECDC warned that BQ.1 (and its subvariants) were likely to become dominant in the EU/EEA sometime in November.
Complicating matters, another subvariant - XBB - is making inroads across India and parts of Asia - and while it has yet to be reported in the CDC's Nowcast - has shown up in Europe, and could eventually challenge BQ.1/BQ.1.1 for dominance.
A week ago, in WHO: TAG-VE Statement on Omicron Sublineages BQ.1 and XBB, we looked at the WHO's expert committee's assessment of these two variants, which focused on their immune escape advantage; their ability to evade existing immunity gained from vaccination, previous infection, or both.
So far, we've not seen any evidence that these new variants produce any greater severity of illness than earlier Omicron strains, but many are not yet at a level that would send a strong signal.
In the short-term it appears that the tag-team of BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 have the inside track for becoming the dominant strains in the US this winter, but there are enough players in the wings to make it impossible to know what the COVID landscape will look like 90 days from now.
Stay tuned. It's going to get complicated.
