Friday, November 11, 2022

China: Beijing Relaxes Some Zero-COVID Regulations Even As Cases Continue To Rise


#17,117


While calling the COVID epidemic `severe and complex', and vowing to unswervingly implement "dynamic clean-up" "Zero" general policythe Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on Friday relaxed some of their more draconian Zero-COVID rules including;

  • Reducing quarantine period by 2 days for close contacts, visitors
  • Ending 'circuit breaker' penalty for airlines
  • Halting tracing 'secondary contacts' of COVID cases
This move comes even though the number of daily COVID cases being reported by the National Health Committee continues to rise, with over 10,000 reported over the past 24 hours.  While the numbers coming out of China are highly suspect, the fact that they are admitting to an increase is telling.

The full details of the meeting can be found in the following Xinhua News Agency report, posted on the NHC website, which outlines 20 measures to control the pandemic going forward.  As you might guess from the length of the (translated) title alone, the report is quite verbose. 

Due to its length I've only posted a few excerpts. 


The Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to listen to the report on the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and to study and deploy 20 measures to further optimize the prevention and control work. General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee Xi Jinping presided over the meeting
Release time: 2022-11-10

(Excerpt)
The Party Central Committee has made important arrangements and made clear requirements for the 20 measures to further optimize the prevention and control work , and all localities and departments must implement all the optimization measures in place.
(1) For close contacts, the management measures of "7-day centralized isolation + 3-day home health monitoring" will be adjusted to "5-day centralized isolation + 3-day home isolation", during which time they will be assigned a code and will not be allowed to go out. A nucleic acid test will be carried out on the 1st , 2nd, 3rd and 5th days of centralized isolation medical observation, and a nucleic acid test will be carried out on the 1st and 3rd day of home isolation medical observation .

(2) Timely and accurately determine close contacts, and no longer determine close contact.

(3) Adjust the "7-day centralized quarantine" for spillover personnel in high-risk areas to "7-day home quarantine", during which time they are assigned codes and are not allowed to go out. Carry out a nucleic acid test on the 1st , 3rd, 5th, and 7th days of home isolation .

(4) Adjust the risk areas from three categories of "high, medium and low" to "high and low" to minimize the number of control personnel. In principle, the areas where the infected person lives and the workplaces and activity areas with frequent activities and high risk of epidemic transmission are designated as high-risk areas. Other areas in the county (city, district, flag) where the risk area is located are designated as low-risk areas. No new infections were found in the high-risk area for 5 consecutive days, and it was reduced to a low-risk area. High-risk areas that meet the unblocking conditions must be unblocked in time.

(5) For employees in high-risk positions who have completed closed-loop operations, the "7-day centralized isolation or 7-day home isolation" is adjusted to "5-day home health monitoring", during which time code management is carried out, and 1 each of the 1st , 3rd , and 5th days will be carried out . For the nucleic acid test , do not go out unless it is necessary, and do not go to crowded public places or take public transportation if you really need to go out.

(6) Nucleic acid testing of risk positions and key personnel shall be carried out in areas where no epidemic has occurred in strict accordance with the scope determined by the ninth edition of the prevention and control plan, and the scope of nucleic acid testing shall not be expanded. Generally, nucleic acid testing is not carried out for all employees by administrative region, but only when the source of infection and transmission chain are unclear, and the community transmission time is relatively long. Formulate specific implementation measures to standardize nucleic acid testing, reiterate and refine relevant requirements, and correct unscientific practices such as "two tests a day" and "three tests a day".

(7) The circuit breaker mechanism for inbound flights will be cancelled, and the two negative nucleic acid test certificates within 48 hours before boarding will be adjusted to one negative nucleic acid test certificate within 48 hours before boarding.

(8) For inbound important business personnel, sports groups, etc., "point-to-point" transfer to the isolation-free closed-loop management area ("closed-loop bubble") to carry out business, training, competition and other activities, during the period, code management, not to leave the management area . Before entering the management area, Chinese personnel need to complete the new coronavirus vaccine booster immunization, and take corresponding isolation management or health monitoring measures according to the risk after completing the work.

(9) Clarify that the positive judgment standard for entry personnel is nucleic acid test Ct value < 35, and conduct risk assessment for personnel with nucleic acid test Ct value of 35-40 when they are released from centralized isolation . Code management, no going out.

(10) For those entering the country, the "7-day centralized quarantine + 3-day home health monitoring" will be adjusted to "5-day centralized quarantine + 3-day home quarantine", during which time they will be assigned codes for management and are not allowed to go out. After the inbound personnel completes the quarantine at the first point of entry, the destination shall not be quarantined again. A nucleic acid test will be carried out on the 1st , 2nd , 3rd and 5th days of centralized isolation medical observation, and a nucleic acid test will be carried out on the 1st and 3rd day of home isolation medical observation .

          (Continue . . . )

 

Undoubtedly, some of these steps will be welcomed in China (particularly ending the forced quarantine of `secondary contacts'), but the Standing Committee went to great lengths to warn that the pandemic threat was far from over.  They are quoted as saying:

At present, the new coronavirus is still mutating, the global epidemic is still in an epidemic situation, and new domestic epidemics are emerging. my country is a country with a large population, with a large number of vulnerable groups, unbalanced regional development, and insufficient medical resources. The epidemic situation in some areas still has a certain scale.
 
Affected by virus mutation and climatic factors in winter and spring, the scope and scale of the epidemic may be further expanded. The prevention and control situation is still severe and complex . It is necessary to maintain strategic focus and scientifically and accurately do a good job in epidemic prevention and control.

Before Omicron, many of China's Zero-COVID policies - while costly - were largely effective in controlling the virus.  The emergence of far more transmissible Omicron variants - combined with waning vaccine protection and very low levels of acquired community immunity - has made that task far more difficult. 

Perhaps even impossible. 

The $64 question facing China is - if they should lose control - what a COVID wave spreading across a (mostly) immunologically naive population of 1.4 billion people would look like, and what evolutionary opportunities might that afford the virus?

Stay tuned.  The answers to both of those questions have the potential to shape the global impacts of COVID well into 2023.