- 145 cases in England
- 20 cases in Scotland
- 5 cases in Wales
- 1 case in Northern Ireland
The avian influenza outbreak in the UK is assessed as at risk level 3 although there is limited mammalian surveillance data. At present, there are no indicators of increasing risk to human health, however this is a low confidence assessment.
The risk assessment is dynamic and requires regular review during this period of unusually high levels of transmission in birds with mammalian spillover.
A month earlier, in the UK APHA: Technical risk assessment for avian influenza (human health): influenza A H5N1 2.3.4.4b, the authors wrote:
- There is insufficient information to judge the risk of asymptomatic or mild disease due to limited testing in human contacts of infected birds.
- There is insufficient information to assess the occurrence of limited human-to-human transmission such as transmission within households.
- At present there are no indicators of increasing risk to human health; however, this is a low confidence assessment.
Today (Feb 14th) the UK's DEFRA has published a new assessment of HPAI in the UK and Europe. Due to its length, I've only posted some excerpts. Follow the link to read it in its entirety.
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the UKand Europe
6 February 2023
Disease report
Since our last outbreak assessment on 4 January, there have been further reports of high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) H5 both in domestic poultry and in wild birds in the United Kingdom (UK) and Europe. These include 13 new infected premises (IPs) confirmed with HPAI H5N1 in Great Britain, 9 in commercial poultry premises and 4 in noncommercial premises. There have been 74 HPAI H5 events in wild birds in Great Britain since our last assessment.
The wild bird risk across Great Britain is maintained at very high. The risk to poultry with stringent biosecurity is maintained at medium, with medium uncertainty, and the risk to poultry with suboptimal biosecurity is maintained at high, with low uncertainty.
Housing measures came into force across the whole of England on 7 November 2022. This means that all bird keepers in these areas (whether they have pet birds, commercial flocks or just a few birds in a backyard flock) are required by law to take a range of biosecurity precautions, including housing their birds (except in very specific circumstances). These housing measures build on the strengthened biosecurity requirements of the Avian Influenza Prevention Zones (AIPZs) which were declared in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland on 17 October 2022.
On 02 December, additional compulsory biosecurity and housing measures came into force across Wales, whereby keepers of poultry and captive birds are legally required to keep their birds housed or otherwise separated from wild birds. Keepers must also complete and act upon a bespoke biosecurity review of the premises where birds are kept.
Across Europe, HPAI continues to be reported in domestic poultry and non-poultry species, including wild birds. The World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) has reported outbreaks of HPAI H5N1 in domestic poultry in Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Moldova, the Netherlands, Poland and Romania. HPAI H5N1 events in non-poultry species, including wild birds, have been reported by WOAH in Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland
(SNIP)
Between 4 January and 6 February 2023, there have been a total of 535 HPAI H5N1 events reported by the WOAH in domestic poultry and non-poultry including wild birds across Europe. Of these, 129 outbreaks of HPAI H5N1 were reported in domestic poultry in: Austria (3), Belgium (3), Czech Republic (11), Denmark (1), France (38), Germany (15), Hungary (4), Moldova (1), the Netherlands (3), Poland (48) and Romania (2). 406 HPAI H5N1 events were reported in non-poultry/wild birds in: Austria (60), Belgium (42), Czech Republic (3), Denmark (29), France (53), Germany (128), Hungary (5), Ireland (2), Italy (9), Luxembourg (2), Poland (21), Romania (9), Russia (3), Serbia (2), Slovakia (2), Slovenia (2), Spain (10), Sweden (18) and Switzerland (6)
The number of outbreaks of HPAI in poultry farms each week across Europe has fluctuated over the last 4 weeks but shown a decreasing trend since the end of 2022, with around 20 outbreaks in week 2, around 35 in week 3, approximately 10 outbreaks in week 4 and around 5 in week 5. The number of cases in wild birds appears to have remained fairly high in weeks 2, 3 and 4 then has decreased , with around 50 cases reported in in week 5. It is important to note that wild bird surveillance methods may differ between countries and may contribute to the variability in the number of wild birds reported each week.(SNIP)
Conclusion
Cases of HPAI H5 in wild birds, and confirmations in poultry premises have continued to be reported across Europe and in Great Britain since our last assessment. Since 1 October 2022, there have been 794 confirmed cases of HPAI H5 in wild birds in Great Britain, spanning a range of waterfowl, seabirds, and birds of prey.
The risk of HPAI H5 infection in wild birds in Great Britain is maintained at VERY HIGH. There is currently a very high infection pressure on poultry from wild birds. Temperature conditions favouring increased virus survival during the current cold weather will prolong survival of residual virus infectivity in the environment with implications for fomite transmission to poultry, even though they are housed, through poor biosecurity, or where there are biosecurity breaches.
Although the number of IPs fell week by week between the October peak and early December, the infection pressure from both wild birds and residual environmental infectivity remains very high, and several IPs are still being reported weekly. Therefore, the risk of exposure of poultry across Great Britain where biosecurity is suboptimal is maintained at HIGH (with low uncertainty) while the risk to poultry in Great Britain where biosecurity is stringent is maintained at MEDIUM (with medium uncertainty).
Additional housing measures came into force across England on 7 November 2022. This means that all bird keepers in these areas (whether they have pet birds, commercial flocks or just a few birds in a backyard flock) are required by law to take a range of biosecurity precautions, including housing their birds. These housing measures build on the strengthened biosecurity requirements of the Avian Influenza Prevention Zones (AIPZs) which were declared in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland on 17 October 2022.
On 02 December, additional compulsory biosecurity and housing measures came into force across Wales, whereby keepers of poultry and captive birds are legally required to keep their birds housed or otherwise separated from wild birds. Keepers must also complete and act upon a bespoke biosecurity review of the premises where birds are kept
We are continuing to closely monitor the situation and review the risk
