Friday, January 19, 2024

CDC Nowcast: COVID JN.1 Now Massively In Control

















#17,872

The meteoric rise of the JN.1 variant - first appearing on the CDC's Nowcast in early December - continues with this offshoot of the BA.2.86 variant now making up between 80% and 90% of cases in the United States. 


Today's CDC Nowcast has JN.1 now at 85.7% (range 82.9- 88.2), with all other variants losing ground to this viral juggernaut. HV.1 remains in 2nd place at 5.3%, but is down more than 80% since its high in November. 

While there are trace amounts of other variants (most under 1% prevalence), this is the first truly dominant COVID variant we've seen since early last summer. How long it will hold is anyone's guess.  

Over the past two years, even the most dominant variants have had trouble staying on top more than a few months. 

Whether the BA.2.86 lineage (and its more successful offshoots, like JN.1) will completely supplant the competition the way that the first wave of Omicron variants did in late 2021, remains to be seen.  But this does seem like another major turning point in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2. 

But chaotic history of COVID suggests, it won't be the last one we'll see.

The CDC's last update on and assessment of JN.1 was on January 5th.