#18,340
With the very strong caveat that the projected path shown above could change, the current forecast path of what is almost certain to become Hurricane Milton by tomorrow is one no Floridian want's to see.
The 11 am discussion #1, puts this storm as a CAT 2 as it approaches the coast, but grants that it may be higher.
With the strongest onshore winds to the right of where the eye makes landfall, much of the west coast of Florida could be in store for another major storm surge just two weeks after Helene. A worst case scenario would be a landfall just north of Tampa bay, which could drive record surge tides into heavily populated Tampa, Pinellas County, Bradenton, and the barrier islands.
Areas that were already badly damaged during Helene.
Warnings probably won't be issued until sometime on Sunday, and by then we should have the benefit of aircraft reconnaissance. But those in the path will then probably only have 48 - 60 hours to prepare, and much of that time will see heavy rainfall and risks of flooding.
Some of the models suggest a Major hurricane (CAT 3+), but there is strong wind shear and dry air to the north, and that could inhibit the growth of the storm. Or not. In 2018, Category 5 Michael struck the panhandle despite initial intensity forecasts predicting a CAT 1 storm.
For now, residents of Florida should be preparing for another damaging storm. The Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center follow:
Like millions of others in its path, I'll be spending the next few days preparing, and depending upon its ultimate path, may be forced to evacuate.
Stay tuned.
