Credit: NWS Weather Prediction Center
#19,027
Five years ago (Feb 2021) 3 successive winter storms swept across Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma, causing the worst collapse of the Texas energy grid on record (see Texas: The Latest - But Not The Last - Grid Down Crisis).At least 4.5 million homes were without power during a week of bitter winter temperatures, resulting in hundreds of deaths and tens of billions of dollars of damage (see City of Austin & Travis County 2021 WINTER STORM URI AFTER-ACTION REVIEW).
Although the exact path of the ice and storm is still subject to change, the most recent advisory from the National Weather Service (issued Jan 23rd, 3:45 am) calls for high impacts from Texas to New England.
In addition to the bitter cold, ice and snow, extended power outages, particularly in areas with large ice accumulations, are expected, and may last for days.
Last November, in The NERC 2025-2026 Winter (Electrical Grid) Reliability Assessment we looked at their cautionary 56-page winter reliability assessment, which warned that:
Rising Demand, Evolving Resources Continue to Challenge Winter Grid Reliability
November 18, 2025
WASHINGTON, D.C.—NERC’s 2025–2026 Winter Reliability Assessment (WRA) finds that much of North America is again at an elevated risk of having insufficient energy supplies to meet demand in extreme operating conditions. Although resources are adequate for normal winter peak demand, any prolonged, wide-area cold snaps will be challenging. This is largely due to rising electricity demand, which has grown by 20 GW since last winter, significantly outpacing winter on-peak capacity. This, coupled with the changing resource mix, is affecting the winter outlook.
The growing vulnerability of our power grid is something we've discussed often over the past 15 years (see NIAC: Surviving A Catastrophic Power Outage), and has grown more acute in recent years due to the power demands of A.I. data centers.
But ageing infrastructure, continually increasing power demands, cyber attacks (see DHS: NIAC Cyber Threat Report), solar flares and CMEs (see FEMA: Preparing the Nation for Space Weather Events), and natural disasters all take their toll.
Last summer, the U.S. Department of Energy published a 73-page report that warned that if current schedules for retirement of reliable power generation (especially baseload) continue, without enough firm replacement, the risk of blackouts in 2030 could increase by 100× over current levels.
Number one on their Key Takeaways is:
Status Quo is Unsustainable. The status quo of more generation retirements and less dependable replacement generation is neither consistent with winning the AI race and ensuring affordable energy for all Americans, nor with continued grid reliability (ensuring “resource adequacy”).
Absent intervention, it is impossible for the nation’s bulk power system to meet the AI growth requirements while maintaining a reliable power grid and keeping energy costs low for our citizens.
Their words, not mine.
While there is admittedly not much you or I can do about the state of the power grid, we can all prepare for outages, particularly during times of severe weather. Ready.gov has a #WinterReady Preparedness page, with helpful advice on preparing for extreme cold.
My `standard advice' is that everyone should strive to have the ability to withstand 7 to 10 days without power and water.
Recommended preps include:
- A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
- A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
- Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
- A way to provide light when the grid is down.
- A way to cook safely without electricity
- A way to purify or filter water
- A way to handle basic sanitation and waste disposal.
- A way to stay cool (fans) or warm (alternate heat) when the power is out.
- A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
- An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
- Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
- A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout
Some of my preparedness blogs on how to become better prepared in the event the lights go out include:
The Gift of Preparedness 2025
#NatlPrep: Prolonged Grid Down Preparedness
Wind Chill, Hypothermia & Other Cold Weather Hazards
But when things go pear-shaped, it can substantially improve your chances.
