Monday, March 23, 2026

(Referral) Nature: Human MERS-CoV cases are falling but pose an ongoing pandemic threat

 

#19,093

Since the arrival of the COVID pandemic we've witnesses a sharp, and welcome, decline in the number of MERS-CoV cases reported from the Middle East. 

At first, it was thought this respite was due the the `fog' of the pandemic, and shifting surveillance priorities. 

While detection and reporting of cases has always been challenging (see EID Journal: Estimation of Severe MERS Cases in the Middle East, 2012–2016), this decline now seems legit; potentially caused by a combination of:

  • Possible limited cross-protection due to COVID (infection and/or vaccination).
  • Behavior changes (mask wearing, better hand hygiene, reduced camel contact, etc.) since COVID
  • Improved infection control (again, likely driven by COVID) in healthcare facilities, which often accounted for large outbreaks previously.
Encouraging, but none of these changes are guaranteed to be permanent. Over time acquired immunity can wane, behaviors can change, and lapses in infection control can always resume. 

While the number of cases remains low, over the past 12 months we've seen several high-profile reports of spillovers, including France MOH: 2 Travelers Returning From Arabian Peninsula Diagnosed with MERS-CoV  and WHO: Saudi Arabia Reports 9 New MERS-CoV Cases.

Not surprisingly, over the past year we've also seen a resurgence in MERS-CoV-related studies, including:


All of which brings us to a WHO-authored commentary - published last week in Nature - which warns that the MERS-CoV continues to circulate in dromedary camels in the Middle East, that it appears to maintain its virulence, and it remains a plausible pandemic threat.

Since this is not an Open Access report released under the CC license, I've only posted the link below.  It is free to read, but you may have to set up an account. 

Nevertheless, it is well worth reading in its entirety.  I'll have a bit more after you return.

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Published: 19 March 2026

Human MERS-CoV cases are falling but pose an ongoing pandemic threat

Lorenzo Subissi, James R. Otieno, Asma Abi Mohamed Shah, Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad, Anurag Agrawal, Amna Omair Al Mehairi, Ahmed Mohammed Albarraq,  Amal Barakat, Ismail Mahat Bashir, Leon Caly, Meera Chand, Christian Drosten, Nuno R. Faria, Adeola Fowotade, Anne von Gottberg, Bart L. Haagmans, Baoying Huang, Jason Kindrachuk, Marion P. G. Koopmans, Bette Korber, Yee-Sin Leo,  Placide Mbala-Kingebeni, Nada M. Melhem, Vincent J. Munster, …Maria D. Van Kerkhove 

Nature Health (2026) Cite this article

Human cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) have declined in recent years, but continued surveillance and research is needed to understand this trend and mitigate future zoonotic threats.

While MERS-CoV and new variants of SARS-CoV-2 are both plausible candidates for producing the next pandemic, we continue to watch a growing number of novel coronavirus threats in the wild.

Just a few, of many, include:






Recent studies suggest that the frequency, and impact, of pandemics are only expected to increase in the years ahead.


While I can't tell you what type of emerging disease will spark the next pandemic - or when - it is all but guaranteed to happen again. And very much like we were in the run-up to COVID, the world is nowhere near prepared to go through that again.

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