Avian Flu Diary: Preprint: Mapping global emergence of pathogens with epidemic and pandemic potential . . .

#19,094

We've a preprint today from the WHO and international partners which attempts to map the global emergence of pathogens with epidemic and pandemic potential.

This is an ambitious project, and in its first iteration is limited to 17 priority pathogens drawn heavily from the 2017-2018 WHO List Of Blueprint Priority Diseases and 2024's Pathogens Prioritization Report.

As a result, disease threats from some regions of the world (e.g. Americas, Western Pacific, Europe) may be under represented. In this preprint, sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are identified as high risk areas.

When evidence was overlaid for multiple pathogens in a composite map, our results demonstrate that the greatest potential for emergence of the largest number of pathogens are in locations in sub-Saharan Africa. Our results provide evidence that some areas of South Sudan,for example, are at risk of exposure to emergence of all priority pathogens considered (Figure1).
Large geographic areas in Western Africa, including Nigeria and Ghana, in Central and in Southern Africa (from Gabon and Cameroon, to the United Republic of Tanzania and Mozambique) similarly have areas with evidence to support emergence potential for the different pathogens evaluated, with important foci for Lassa virus (LASV), Yersinia pestis,monkeypox virus (MPXV), Rift Valley fever virus (RVF), Ebola virus (EBV), and Marburg virus(MARV) present among others.
Outside of Africa, in South Asia our results illustrate support for the emergence potential for the highest numbers of pathogens in Western India, specifically Gujarat and Rajasthan, in South-East Asia, in the Mekong Delta (Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, and Viet Nam),Indonesia, and in southern China where there is evidence of emergence potential of a multitude of pathogens, including key foci for DENV, non specific Henipaviruses, CHIKV, and ZIKV.

I've reproduced the abstract below. Follow the link to read the report in its entirety. I'll have a bit more after the break.

Mapping global emergence of pathogens with epidemic and pandemic potential to inform and accelerate pandemic prevention, preparedness, readiness and response

David Pigott, Barbara A Han, Adrian A Castellanos, Huong T Chu, Erin N Frame, Narmada Venkateswaran, Oliver J Brady, Ahyoung J Lim, Diana P. Rojas, Sophie von Dobschuetz, Maria D. Van Kerkhove
doi: https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.03.20.26347940 This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review

PDF

ABSTRACT

Introduction

Increasing occurrence of epidemics and pandemics and concurrent emergence of different pathogens calls for multi-sectoral, multi-pathogen preparedness actions. Data on various factors that drive emergence of diverse pathogens can inform evidence-based preparedness by identifying geographies at-risk. When leveraging evidence within a One Health approach,multiple pathogens can be addressed simultaneously, thereby strengthening countries’ pandemic preparedness efforts.

Methods

For seventeen priority pathogens (avian influenza viruses, zoonotic coronaviruses including COVID-19, hemorrhagic fever viruses including Ebola, Henipaviruses, and arboviruses including yellow fever and Zika), we identified global evidence on animal reservoirs, vectors,environmental suitability, and reported human cases. We discriminated geospatially recorded pathogen detections from a background sample and constructed maps using these datasets to generate an evidence-based assessment of emergence risk globally.

Results

Seventeen pathogen-specific assessments were combined into a global composite map. Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have evidence supporting emergence risk for the greatest number of pathogens (included areas at-risk of all pathogens) and scored highest when strength-of-evidence weightings were factored. The Americas had the lowest tally of considered pathogens. Environmental suitability analyses received the highest weights, reservoir ranges the lowest.

Discussion

Preparedness and readiness must consider the range of global biological threats. Our methodology is capable of incorporating changing evidence on emergence potential for multiple pathogens to identify geographies at higher risk with different pathogen combinations. Our mapscan contribute to existing decision-support structures, guiding shared interventions and strategic allocation of resources for spillover prevention and pandemic preparedness, thereby enhancing local response capacities applying a multidisciplinary approach.

(Continue . . . )

While this report doesn't provide an explicit ranking of pathogens `most likely to succeed' they do point out how widespread (geographically & across species) avian flu and SARS-CoV-2 have become globally.

Geographic range of emergence risk for epidemic- and pandemic-prone pathogens

When considering the risk for individual pathogens derived from the synthesis of all pathogen-specific inputs, SARS-CoV-2 and avian influenza virus were widespread in their geographic risk distributions as compared to other pathogens (Supplementary Appendix). Underpinning this broad risk profile is the number of unique species (44 and 303) that have been documented as having been infected by SARS-CoV-2 and HPAI strains, respectively.

Of course, we could be blindsided (again) by something that currently isn't even on our radar. And yet - incredibly - we have severely degraded much of our global disease surveillance, investigative, and reporting systems (see Flying Blind In The Viral Storm).