BBC Report: 4 New Cases Of H7N9 In China?

Credit Wikipedia

 

UPDATE: Confirmed See Statement From Jiangsu Province Health Department On H7N9

# 7051

 

After writing of the perils of H7N9 And The `Fog Of Flu’ earlier today, we’ve a headline in the Chinese Language version of BBC news this morning that that is hard to ignore:

(machine translation)

 

The H7N9 avian influenza virus infection in China increased to seven cases

Updated April 2, 2013, Greenwich Mean Time 12:41

Health Department of Jiangsu Province, China issued a circular on Tuesday (April 2), there have been four cases of human infection with the H7N9 avian influenza virus cases confirmed in Jiangsu Province, the H7N9 virus infections in China increased to seven cases.

The notification lists 1 males and 3 females four patients engaged in live poultry slaughter in Jiangning District, a 45-year-old female. Health authorities had said earlier Tuesday that suspected she was infected with the H7N9 virus has now been confirmed.

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Jiangsu Province is north of, but adjacent to Shanghai.

 

I’m currently looking for an official confirmation of the above story.

BBC: The Pandemic Flu Warning You Haven’t Seen . . . Yet

 

 

# 5605

 

 

 

Finding the right content, and tone, to deliver in a TV or radio PSA (public service announcement) during a global crisis like a pandemic has been the subject of much debate over the past few years.

 

Crisis communicators want the public to take a threat seriously, but they don’t want to push too hard, for fear alienating a portion of the public who may choose to tune out an overly ominous warning.

 

During the comparatively mild pandemic of 2009, PSAs were  fairly low-key. Designed to inform, but not inflame the public. 

 

In the UK, the fairly innocuous CATCH IT. BIN IT. KILL IT. was selected as being the appropriate response to a comparatively mild threat.

 

In the United States, the HHS even solicited PSA submissions from the public, resulting in many clever submissions and with the winner of the competition being Dr. John Clarke and his H1N1 Rap.

 

You can view the top 10 entries in my blog Vote For Your Favorite PSA.

 

In 2008, a year before the pandemic, I wrote about a PSA (see Reaching For the 2x4) produced by the The Ohio Department of Health that critics called ominous' and `chilling' while the Ohio Department of Health called them `edgy'.

 

 

Its one thing to run a `scary’ campaign before a crisis arises, quite another when a threat is imminent.

 

So the following year, when the H1N1 pandemic began and it was apparent it wasn’t going to be the killer flu that had been feared, the `big guns’ were left holstered.

 

But public health agencies – in their ongoing preparations for a serious pandemic – continue to work on finding the `right’ message. 

 

The BBC today has convinced (via a Freedom of Information Request) the UK’s DOH to release one of their proposed PSAs – created in 2006 when H5N1 bird flu was on everyone’s radar – that was intended for use during a severe pandemic sometime in the future.

 

You can read the BBC article, and view the video at:

 

Pandemic flu advert revealed by Department of Health

 

This particular PSA eschews the kind of stark imagery shown in the Ohio video above – and uses dominos as a metaphor for an illness sweeping inexorably across the globe.

 

Still, it manages to convey a menacing tone. 

 

Finding the `right message’ before, during, and after a crisis is a constant struggle. What resonates with one segment of the public may very well turn off another.

 

The pandemic threat from H5N1, and other novel viruses, has not gone away. While pandemics often occur decades apart, there are no guarantees that another won’t begin this year or next.

 

So public health agencies will continue to work to fine-tune their messages, looking for the right combination of imagery and advice that will prompt the desired response from the public without arousing unwanted alarm or antipathy.

Referral: Fergus Walsh On The UK Flu

 

 

# 5174

 

Fergus Walsh is the BBC medical correspondent who writes the Fergus’s Medical Files blog.  Last year, during the pandemic, Fergus wrote extensively on influenza, and still does with some regularity today.

 

Late yesterday he published a blog on the spike in flu cases in the UK, a subject I’ve covered a couple of times recently (see here and here).

 

While we cover a lot of the same issues – in addition to explaining some of the case counts and fatality numbers - Fergus brings us comments from Professor Peter Openshaw, director of the Centre for Respiratory Infections at Imperial College London.

 

Read:

 

Is swine flu a worry?

Fergus Walsh | 19:30 UK time, Thursday, 23 December 2010

 

None of these reassuring words (mine or Mr. Walsh’s) should be viewed as suggesting that the UK isn’t getting slammed by a serious wave of influenza.

 

It is.

 

And the numbers we get in the press, only tell part of the story.   There are undoubtedly hundreds of (mostly mild) cases sick at home for every patient in the hospital.

 

The 27 deaths being widely reported is also, likely, just the tip of the iceberg.  A lot of flu-related deaths simple aren’t attributed to influenza.  They get blamed on pneumonia, heart problems, COPD, or some other chronic condition.

 

What makes the UK’s outbreak so newsworthy are the demographics of those being hospitalized.

 

Unlike with previous seasonal flu strains, the 2009 H1N1 virus has a predilection for those under the age of 65.  So, disturbingly, younger adults and children are the hardest hit groups.

 

Thus far, however, in terms of total numbers hospitalized or killed, the outbreak of influenza in the UK looks pretty much like what we’d expect during any severe (non-pandemic) flu season.

 

Flu viruses are notoriously unpredictable, however.

 

They can mutate unexpectedly, and pockets of greater virulence can sometimes occur, even when the rest of the world is seeing a milder virus. And quite frankly, we only know when that happens in retrospect.

 

Given the limits of our technology, it is pure folly to try to predict what the influenza virus will do tomorrow or next week or next month.

 

So the best defense this year – and every year - is to get the flu shot and to practice good flu etiquette and hygiene.

UK: Case Numbers Down But Deaths Increase

 

# 2005

 

 

Fergus Walsh, medical consultant for the BBC, writes the Fergus on Flu column, which gives us some of the best reporting on the pandemic out of the UK.   

Today he gives his readers an advance look at a new DOH publication called Swine Flu and Pregnancy, and a summary of the latest flu numbers from the last week.

 

From today’s column:

 

Cases down but deaths up

Meanwhile, the H1N1 virus continues its unpredictable course. The number of cases is falling in much of the UK, but there has been a significant increase in the number of deaths.
There were an estimated 64,000 new cases of swine flu in England in the past week, a fall of 20,000.

 

There were decreases in Northern Ireland and cases seem to have stalled in Wales (on one measure in Wales cases rose, and on another they fell).

 

Only Scotland showed an definite increase. Health officials think the dip in cases may be due to the recent half-term school holidays.

 

At the same time, there has been a big jump in the number of deaths, up by 28 to 182 across the UK.

 

But there is no evidence that the virus is becoming more virulent. Sir Liam Donaldson said:

 

"[T]he lab scientists continue to watch the virus and it's not changing, but it looks like now the virus is out of the summer it has a more serious spectrum about it."

 

Walsh’s column also brings a number of graphics of note, including some breakdowns by patient ages that show just how much the burden of this disease is falling on younger (under 65) patients:

 

 

 

Follow this link to read it in its entirety.

UK: Fergus On Flu - Three Flu Studies

 

 

# 3999

 

Fergus Walsh, medical correspondent for the BBC, has a blog today on 3 major UK studies that will try to answer some basic questions about how influenza spreads, and how it affects its hosts.

 

 

Still more questions than answers

Fergus Walsh | 08:38 UK time, Thursday, 12 November 2009

Influenza viruses have been causing sickness for thousands of years so it may seem curious that there is still a huge amount that we don't understand about them.

 

This applies especially to H1N1 swine flu which, admittedly, has only been circulating in humans for a matter of months.

 

A series of research projects in the UK have been announced which will examine every aspect of the swine flu virus - in pig and human populations, and in hospital intensive care units.
£7.5 million pounds of funding has been given by the Medical Research Council (MRC), Wellcome Trust, and Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) along with some government support.

 

The research will aim to answer many of the questions which posters on this blog have raised, and more besides:

• • Why do some people and not others become seriously ill with swine flu?
  • What proportion of people who are infected have no symptoms (what's known as asymptomatic)?
  • If you are asymptomatic, can you still spread flu?
  • How useful are antivirals?
  • How effective is the vaccine?
  • How does H1N1 swine flu behave in pigs?
  • Is there a risk that the virus could evolve into a more virulent form in pigs?
  • Is there a need for a vaccine for pigs to slow the spread of the virus?

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