Referral: Fergus Walsh On Flu

 

 

 

# 5196

 

 

Although I’ve certainly felt the story has been worthy of coverage numerous times over the past couple of weeks, I’ve been doing my level best not to oversell the flu `crisis’ in the UK.  

 

I know it won’t sell newspapers, or draw hordes of readers to this blog, but the plain facts are – so far, anyway – the number of deaths and ICU admissions attributed to this year’s flu outbreak in the UK fall far short of constituting a viral Armageddon.

 

But you wouldn’t know that by reading the newspaper headlines.

 

Which is not to say the UK isn’t being impacted by a serious outbreak of influenza (and other respiratory illnesses).  It is. 

 

Some hospitals, ICUs, and GPs are heavily stressed, and there are a number of tragic stories regarding children and young adults impacted by the flu.

 

 

But influenza exacts a heavy toll almost every year. Most of the time – since its victims are generally elderly – this goes largely unnoticed by the public and the press.

 

As the H1N1 virus has shown a predilection for younger victims, this year and last, we are seeing far more media coverage – and public concern – regarding influenza. 

 

Fergus Walsh, the BBC’s well known medical correspondent, brings a little bit of sanity to the coverage in a New Year’s Eve blog post called:

 

Keeping a sense of proportion about swine flu

Fergus Walsh | 14:14 UK time, Friday, 31 December 2010

 

A highly recommended dose of reality for this first morning of the new year.

Referral: Fergus Walsh On The UK Flu

 

 

# 5174

 

Fergus Walsh is the BBC medical correspondent who writes the Fergus’s Medical Files blog.  Last year, during the pandemic, Fergus wrote extensively on influenza, and still does with some regularity today.

 

Late yesterday he published a blog on the spike in flu cases in the UK, a subject I’ve covered a couple of times recently (see here and here).

 

While we cover a lot of the same issues – in addition to explaining some of the case counts and fatality numbers - Fergus brings us comments from Professor Peter Openshaw, director of the Centre for Respiratory Infections at Imperial College London.

 

Read:

 

Is swine flu a worry?

Fergus Walsh | 19:30 UK time, Thursday, 23 December 2010

 

None of these reassuring words (mine or Mr. Walsh’s) should be viewed as suggesting that the UK isn’t getting slammed by a serious wave of influenza.

 

It is.

 

And the numbers we get in the press, only tell part of the story.   There are undoubtedly hundreds of (mostly mild) cases sick at home for every patient in the hospital.

 

The 27 deaths being widely reported is also, likely, just the tip of the iceberg.  A lot of flu-related deaths simple aren’t attributed to influenza.  They get blamed on pneumonia, heart problems, COPD, or some other chronic condition.

 

What makes the UK’s outbreak so newsworthy are the demographics of those being hospitalized.

 

Unlike with previous seasonal flu strains, the 2009 H1N1 virus has a predilection for those under the age of 65.  So, disturbingly, younger adults and children are the hardest hit groups.

 

Thus far, however, in terms of total numbers hospitalized or killed, the outbreak of influenza in the UK looks pretty much like what we’d expect during any severe (non-pandemic) flu season.

 

Flu viruses are notoriously unpredictable, however.

 

They can mutate unexpectedly, and pockets of greater virulence can sometimes occur, even when the rest of the world is seeing a milder virus. And quite frankly, we only know when that happens in retrospect.

 

Given the limits of our technology, it is pure folly to try to predict what the influenza virus will do tomorrow or next week or next month.

 

So the best defense this year – and every year - is to get the flu shot and to practice good flu etiquette and hygiene.

UK: Fergus Walsh On Vaccination Push

 

 

# 4086

 

 

 

Fergus Walsh, the BBC’s medical correspondent, has been doing a terrific job for months covering the H1N pandemic in his blog, Fergus on Flu.  

 

Today he addresses the state of the  UK’s pandemic vaccination program, and a call for a more aggressive roll out of the vaccine.  He also updates us on the latest information out of the DOH.

 

 

GPs urged to go 'full throttle' in accelerating vaccination

 

Fergus Walsh | 08:57 UK time, Friday, 27 November 2009

Around one million people in England are now estimated to have been vaccinated against swine flu.

 

Across the UK, 10 million doses of the vaccine have been distributed to GPs and hospitals.

 

That one million figure refers to those in the initial priority groups, such as those with chronic asthma, heart and other organ disease, immune problems and pregnant women.

 

Clearly there is still a long way to go. There are nine million people in the priority groups in England, and around 11.5 million across the UK. Then add to that the three million or more under fives who will be offered the jab after that.

 

Professor David Salisbury, Director of Immunisation at the Department of Health said he hoped GPs would now be able to accelerate the vaccination process:

 

(Continue . . . )

 

Fergus has a variety of graphs today showing the pandemic’s impact on the UK.  Among them is this one, showing the weekly `laboratory confirmed’ H1N1 fatalities.  

 

 

 

These numbers are, no doubt, a serious undercount. 

 

And as Fergus explains in his blog, the official estimate of cases in the UK may be off by a factor of 10 or more.

 

The latest weekly estimate for England was 46,000 cases of swine flu with a cumulative total of 760,000. But since the Health Protection Agency now reckons that one in five children may have had swine flu, that cumulative figure maybe just a tenth of the real total (and that's just my guess).

 

Follow the link to read the blog in its entirety.

Referral: Fergus Walsh Pandemrix Vaccine Q&A

 

 

 

# 4029

 

Fergus Walsh, medical correspondent for the BBC, brings us an in depth interview with Dr Thomas Breuer, who is Senior Vice President Global Clinical R&D and Chief Medical Officer at GSK, the makers of the Pandemrix vaccine.

 

While this interview has more direct implications for people living in the UK, Canada, and most of Europe  . . . I’m sure many Americans are curious about the production and safety of adjuvanted vaccines as well.

 

To be clear: The US vaccine does not contain an adjuvant or squalene.

 

Rather than try to lift a quote or two from the interview, I’ll simply post the link for you to follow.

 

 

Vaccine: Questions and answers

Fergus Walsh | 09:43 UK time, Tuesday, 17 November 2009

 

UK: Case Numbers Down But Deaths Increase

 

# 2005

 

 

Fergus Walsh, medical consultant for the BBC, writes the Fergus on Flu column, which gives us some of the best reporting on the pandemic out of the UK.   

Today he gives his readers an advance look at a new DOH publication called Swine Flu and Pregnancy, and a summary of the latest flu numbers from the last week.

 

From today’s column:

 

Cases down but deaths up

Meanwhile, the H1N1 virus continues its unpredictable course. The number of cases is falling in much of the UK, but there has been a significant increase in the number of deaths.
There were an estimated 64,000 new cases of swine flu in England in the past week, a fall of 20,000.

 

There were decreases in Northern Ireland and cases seem to have stalled in Wales (on one measure in Wales cases rose, and on another they fell).

 

Only Scotland showed an definite increase. Health officials think the dip in cases may be due to the recent half-term school holidays.

 

At the same time, there has been a big jump in the number of deaths, up by 28 to 182 across the UK.

 

But there is no evidence that the virus is becoming more virulent. Sir Liam Donaldson said:

 

"[T]he lab scientists continue to watch the virus and it's not changing, but it looks like now the virus is out of the summer it has a more serious spectrum about it."

 

Walsh’s column also brings a number of graphics of note, including some breakdowns by patient ages that show just how much the burden of this disease is falling on younger (under 65) patients:

 

 

 

Follow this link to read it in its entirety.

UK: Fergus On Flu - Three Flu Studies

 

 

# 3999

 

Fergus Walsh, medical correspondent for the BBC, has a blog today on 3 major UK studies that will try to answer some basic questions about how influenza spreads, and how it affects its hosts.

 

 

Still more questions than answers

Fergus Walsh | 08:38 UK time, Thursday, 12 November 2009

Influenza viruses have been causing sickness for thousands of years so it may seem curious that there is still a huge amount that we don't understand about them.

 

This applies especially to H1N1 swine flu which, admittedly, has only been circulating in humans for a matter of months.

 

A series of research projects in the UK have been announced which will examine every aspect of the swine flu virus - in pig and human populations, and in hospital intensive care units.
£7.5 million pounds of funding has been given by the Medical Research Council (MRC), Wellcome Trust, and Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) along with some government support.

 

The research will aim to answer many of the questions which posters on this blog have raised, and more besides:

• • Why do some people and not others become seriously ill with swine flu?
  • What proportion of people who are infected have no symptoms (what's known as asymptomatic)?
  • If you are asymptomatic, can you still spread flu?
  • How useful are antivirals?
  • How effective is the vaccine?
  • How does H1N1 swine flu behave in pigs?
  • Is there a risk that the virus could evolve into a more virulent form in pigs?
  • Is there a need for a vaccine for pigs to slow the spread of the virus?

(Continue . . . )