NOAA: Major Severe Weather Outbreak Predicted

 

# 7983

 

We’ve seen fewer than normal outbreaks of severe weather across the nation over the past 18 months, but when they have occurred (see Picking Up The Pieces) some have produced significant damage and loss of life.

 

Overnight NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a forecast for a Major Severe Weather Outbreak today and/or tonight, with the greatest risks spread across parts of Illinois and Indiana.

 

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 170849
ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-WIZ000-171800-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO MICHIGAN TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...

The NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma is forecasting the development of a few strong, long-track tornadoes over parts of the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into Michigan today through early tonight.

The areas most likely to experience this activity include:

       Illinois
       Indiana
       Northern and Western Kentucky
       Lower Michigan
       Ohio
       Southeast Wisconsin

Surrounding this greatest risk region, severe thunderstorms will also be possible from parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee northeastward across much of the
Appalachians to the lower Great Lakes.

A potent jet stream disturbance with wind speeds in excess of 120 knots will sweep east across the central Plains today and across the Ohio Valley and northern half of the Appalachians tonight. As this
occurs, a surface low now over the mid-Mississippi Valley will rapidly intensify and accelerate northeastward, reaching northern Michigan early tonight and western Quebec Monday morning.

East of the low, increasingly warm and humid air at the surface will spread north across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, contributing to very unstable conditions over a large part of the east central United States. Coupled with daytime heating and ascent provided the jet stream impulse, the environment will become very favorable for severe thunderstorms --- especially along and ahead of fast-moving cold front trailing southward from the low into the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

Given the degree of thermodynamic instability, and the strength and character of the winds through the depth of the atmosphere, many of the storms will become supercells. Some of these will be capable of
producing strong tornadoes --- in addition to large hail and swaths of damaging surface winds. 

The storms are expected to consolidate into one or two extensive lines later today into tonight --- extending the threat for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes eastward into the Appalachians by early Monday.

State and local emergency managers are monitoring this potentially very dangerous situation. Those in the threatened area are urged to review severe weather safety rules and to listen to radio, television, and NOAA Weather Radio for possible watches, warnings, and statements later today.

..Corfidi.. 11/17/2013

 

For everyone – but particularly for those who live in the forecast area - now would be a good time to  to double check your NOAA weather radio, flashlights, and first aid kit.  You should also have food and water stored to last a minimum of 3 days. If you can manage it, having a week or more is even better.

 

You should also review your family’s emergency communication plan - and if you haven’t already done so - decide where you would go in your home or business if severe weather threatens.

 

Every home and office should have a NOAA  weather radio. Once thought of as mainly a source of local weather information, it has now become an `All-Hazards' alert system as well.

 

In order to receive these broadcasts, you need a special receiver.  Many of these radios have a built in `Tone Alert', and will begin playing once they receive a special alert signal from the broadcaster. To keep track of severe storm forecasts, you can visit NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center online. There you’ll find interactive maps showing current and anticipated severe weather threats all across the nation.

 

We often get a head’s up, and time to prepare for severe storms.  But the same cannot be said for earthquakes, tsunamis, terrorist and/or cyber attacks, power outages, brush or forest fires, and chemical spills or industrial accidents. 

 

The best (and sometimes only) time to prepare for  these threats is before they occur.

 

For more information on how to prepare for emergencies, large and small, the following sites should be of assistance.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

National Severe Weather Preparedness Week

Credit NOAA 

 

# 6984

 

March 3rd thru 9th, 2013 is National Severe Weather Preparedness Week - and being a second generation Floridian who has spent years living aboard boats - I have a well honed respect for the power of storms. 

 

Each year I devote a number of blogs to weather preparedness, including a full week of articles in May in advance of the upcoming hurricane season.

 

After a disastrous 2011 tornado season, one that saw more than 1,700 confirmed twisters claiming more than 550 lives, 2012 was thankfully a far quieter year.  Still, nearly 1,000 tornadoes were reported, causing well over $1.6 Billion dollars in damage, and killing 69 Americans.

 

Add to that hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, derecho winds, hail, and lightning . . .  and every year produces ample outbreaks severe weather across the United States.

 

Despite the lull, last year more than 450 deaths and 2,600 injuries were attributed to various weather-related causes across the nation.

 

NOAA’s Weather-Ready Nation website lists a Calendar of events designed to raise awareness, and preparation, for weather-related emergencies.

 

Be a Force of Nature when it comes to extreme weather by learning about potential hazards. Help advance the Weather-Ready Nation by being prepared for the worst. NOAA’s National Weather Service and its partners encourage individuals, families, businesses and communities to know their risk, take action, and be an example when it comes to dangerous weather.

• March 3-9, 2013: Severe Weather Preparedness Week
• March 18-22, 2013; Flood Awareness Week
• March 24-30, 2013; Tsunami Awareness Week
• May 18-24, 2013; Safe Boating Week
• May 26 - June 1, 2013; Hurricane Preparedness Week
• June 1: 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Officially Begins
• June 2-8, 2013; Rip Current Awareness Week
• June 23-29, 2013; Lightning Safety Awareness Week

In addition to these national events, many states have their own awareness weeks for particular weather hazards. See the Weather Awareness Events Calendar for information from your state.

 

The focus this week is:

Be a Force of Nature: National Severe Weather Preparedness Week March 3-9, 2013 

Know your risk. Take action. Be an example.

New: Presidential Message for National Severe Weather Preparedness Week 2013

Be a Force of Nature this year with National Severe Weather Preparedness Week, March 3-9, 2013.

 

During this week, NOAA and FEMA are highlighting the importance of planning and practicing how and where to take shelter before severe weather strikes. Being prepared to act quickly can be a matter of life and death.

 

Being a force of nature goes beyond taking appropriate preparedness action. It’s about inspiring others to do the same. We’re asking people not only to be prepared, but also to encourage their social network to act by texting, tweeting, or posting a Facebook status update.

 

Be a Force of Nature Toolkit – get involved

 

You, too, can Be a Force of Nature in your community. Tweet, write a blog post, develop a presentation – we have everything you need to get started. Be a local hero and spread the word about preparing for severe weather.

 

No matter where you live, this weekend’s time change is a good reminder to change your smoke detector batteries, and to double check your NOAA weather radio, flashlights, and first aid kit. 

 

 

You should also review your family’s emergency communication plan - and if you haven’t already done so - decide where you would go in your home or business if severe weather threatens.

 

Every home and office should have a NOAA weather radio. Once thought of as mainly a source of local weather information, it has now become an `All-Hazards' alert system as well.

 

 

In order to receive these broadcasts, you need a special receiver.  Many of these radios have a built in `Tone Alert', and will begin playing once they receive a special alert signal from the broadcaster.

 

To keep track of severe storm forecasts, you can visit NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center online. There you’ll find interactive maps showing current and anticipated severe weather threats all across the nation.

 

For those on the go who would like an app (android or iPad) that will sound an alert when tornado warnings are issued in your area, the American Red Cross has recently released one.

 

 

Sadly, despite scores of major disasters (often weather related) that occur in this country each year, most Americans remain woefully unprepared to deal with emergencies.

 

Agencies like FEMA, READY.GOV and the HHS are constantly trying to get the preparedness message out, so that when (not `if') a disaster does occur, human losses can be minimized.

 

For more information on how to prepare for emergencies, large and small, the following sites should be of assistance.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

Safe Rooms: Improving Your Odds

Photo Credit Wikipedia – Dimmitt, Tx Tornado

 

# 6850

 

Nearly two years ago, over a three day period (Apr 25th-28th) a storm system of epic proportions spawned 351 confirmed tornadoes across five southern states, killing 338 persons in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, and Tennessee.

 

This was the the third deadliest tornado outbreak in U.S. History. More than a dozen of these twisters reached intensities of 4 or 5 on the Enhanced Fujita [EF] scale, which can produce near total devastation.

 

After a near-record setting 2011 tornado season (n=1691), 2012 proved somewhat less active (n=936), although certainly not without its moments.

 

No one can say with any confidence how many destructive storms 2013 will bring - but when it comes to tornados - you only have to be hit by one to ruin your whole day.

 

Last spring, the CDC’s MMWR issued an analysis of the previous year’s massive tornado outbreak, that stressed the importance of safe rooms.  Due to the length of the report, I’ve only reproduced a few excerpts. 

 

Follow the link to read:

 

Tornado-Related Fatalities — Five States, Southeastern United States, April 25–28, 2011

Weekly

July 20, 2012 / 61(28);529-533

(Media Synopsis)

Individuals who work or live in a tornado-prone area should develop a tornado safety plan prior to severe weather.

During April 25–28, 2011, the third deadliest tornado disaster occurred in the southeastern U.S. despite modern advances in tornado forecasting, advanced warning times, and media coverage.  CDC reviewed data from the American Red Cross, death certificates and the National Weather Service to describe the fatalities by demographic characteristics, shelter used, cause of death, and tornado severity in the affected states of Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi and Tennessee. Of the 338 deaths, approximately one-third were older adults, almost half occurred in single-family homes, and a quarter happened in mobile homes.  One-half of the 27 tornadoes were rated powerful (EF-4 or EF-5) and were responsible for almost 90 percent of the deaths. The use of safe rooms is crucial to preventing tornado-related deaths.

(Continue . . . .)

With the spring tornado season only a month or two away, now is the time to be creating a tornado safety plan – and if possible – setting up a safe room.

 

FEMA has a good deal of advice on exactly how to construct a safe room – either above or below ground.

 

 

Residential Safe Rooms

• Building a Safe Room in Your House
• Residential Funding Opportunities
• Examples and Case Studies

Having a safe room in your home can protect your family and save the lives of those you care about.

Find answers to your Questions about Building a Safe Room, including:

• What is the cost of installing a safe room?

• Can I install a safe room in an existing home?

• Can I build the safe room myself?

• Where is the best location for the safe room?

• Where can I find plans for safe room construction?

• And more....

Building a Safe Room in Your House

For more details about how you can build a safe room in your home, go to the Taking Shelter From the Storm: Building a Safe Room For Your Home or Small Business (FEMA 320) page before downloading it from the FEMA Library.

Residential Funding Opportunities

Grants, funding opportunities and various initiatives are available for individuals wishing to build a residential safe room.  See the resources below for additional information:

• Residential Funding

• Residential Initiatives

Examples and Case Studies

Learn how others have benefited from safe rooms.  See the following resources on the best practices case study web page.

 

Having a good (and well rehearsed) family emergency plan is essential for any emergency. Even with a safe room, family members could become separated (they may be sent to different hospitals or shelters) in the post-disaster chaos.

 

Some may be injured and unable to provide information about their families.

 

So it is important to set up a plan, including meeting places and out-of-state contacts, and individual wallet information cards -  before you need it. To that end READY.GOV has some advice, and tools, to help you do just that.

 

Plan to Protect Yourself & Your Family

Family Emergency Plan

(PDF - 3Mb)

Prepare yourself and your family for a disaster by making an emergency plan.

 

Download the Family Emergency Plan (FEP) (PDF - 750Kb), print the pages and fill them in offline.

 

Your emergency planning should also address the care of pets, aiding family members with access and functional needs and safely shutting off utilities.

 

You may also want to inquire about emergency plans at work, daycare and school. If no plans exist, consider volunteering to help create one. Read more about school and workplace plans.

 

Once you’ve collected this important information, gather your family members and discuss the information to put in the plan. Practice your plan at least twice a year and update it according to any issues that arise.

 

Together with adequate emergency supplies, a solid first aid kit, and an emergency battery operated NWS Weather Radio, these steps will go a long ways to protecting you, and your family, from a wide variety of potential disasters.

 

For more on all of this, a partial list of some of my preparedness blogs include:

 

When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough

In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

The Gift of Preparedness 2012

Video: Three Congressional Hazards Briefings

 

May 22, 2011, a Level 5 tornado  Joplin, Missouri

# 6318

 

While tabloid newspapers and apocalyptic websites seem obsessed with 2012 Mayan prophecies and extinction level events, genuine emergency managers, scientists, and policy makers are focused on far more likely disasters.

 

Earthquakes, tornadoes, floods, hurricanes, pandemics, and even tsunamis.

 

Disasters that not only happen with some regularity, but that are actually - with a bit of preparation - survivable.

 

Recently the Congressional Hazards Caucus sponsored three public briefings in Washington D.C. focusing on Earthquakes, Tornadoes, and Tsunamis.

 

Videos of all three briefing are available online, and they provide a fascinating look at not only the potential for disasters here in the United States, but at some of the steps that are being taken to reduce or mitigate their effects.

 

First stop, a Public Briefing on Saving Lives in the Path of Destructive Tornadoes, held on March 29th at the Rayburn House Office Building.

From the Invitation Flyer PDF.

                                                                                Speakers

Veronica Johnson, Broadcast Meteorologist, NBC4 Washington (Moderator)

Dr. David Stensrud, Chief, Forecast Research and Development Division, National Severe Storms Laboratory

Keith Stammer, Director, Emergency Management Division, Joplin/Jasper County, Missouri

Julie Demuth, Scientist, Societal Impacts Program, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Next, a public briefing on Faults in the East - New Madrid Seismic Zone and Recent Virginia Earthquake - Understanding Risks, again held on March 29 at the Rayburn House Office Building.

From the Invitation Flyer PDF.

 

Moderator:

David B. Spears, Virginia State Geologist, Virginia Department of Mines, Minerals and Energy, Charlottesville, Virginia

Speakers:
J. Wright Horton, Jr., U.S. Geological Survey, National Center, Reston, Virginia
Learning from the 2011 Virginia Earthquake (3 Mb PDF)

Charles A. Langston, Director of the Center for Earthquake Research and Information, University of Memphis, Memphis, Tennessee
Understanding Earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (4.6 Mb PDF)

James M. Wilkinson, Jr., Executive Director of the Central United States Earthquake Consortium, Memphis, Tennessee
Planning, Preparing, and Responding to Earthquake Risks in the Central United States (1.8 Mb PDF)

 

 

And for our last stop, a public briefing on  Tsunami Preparedness: Understanding our Nation's Risk and Response, this time held March 21 at the Rayburn Office Building.

 

From the  Invitation Flyer PDF.

 

Speakers:
Eddie Bernard, Scientist Emeritus, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Presentation: Local Tsunami Warnings: Can the U.S. Do It? (PDF)

 

John Orcutt, Distinguished Professor of Geophysics at Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Presentation: Tsunami Warning and Preparedness: An Assessment of the U.S. Tsunami Program and Tsunami Preparedness (PDF)

 

John Schelling, Earthquake/Tsunami Program Manager for Washington State Emergency Management Division
Presentation: State & National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Programs: Increasing our Nation's Overall Resilience to Tsunamis (PDF)

 

 

 

 

These are sober presentations by serious scientists, and the events they talk of are – over time – pretty much inevitable.  

 

The unknowns are when, exactly where, and how bad they will be.

 

Which is why emergency managers around the country urge individual, family, and business preparedness, telling everyone to  GET A KIT, MAKE A PLAN, and BE INFORMED.

 

Credit Ready.gov

 

Everyone needs an appropriate disaster plan, just as everyone should have a good first aid kit, a `bug-out bag’, and sufficient emergency supplies to last a bare minimum of 72 hours.

 

For more on  disaster preparedness, I would invite you to visit Ready.gov or revisit these blogs:

 

When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough

In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

The Gift Of Preparedness 2011

CDC Statement On Helmets & Tornadoes

Photo Credit Wikipedia – Dimmitt, Tx Tornado

 

# 6316

 

File this one under `it’s probably better than nothing. . .  ‘

 

Although I’d never heard it suggested until the past couple of years, some experts and those in the media have been recommending the wearing of bicycle or motorcycle helmets to provide a degree of protection from flying debris during a tornado.

 

One such recommendation issued in 2009 can be found here, at the North Dakota State University Extension Service.

 

While it certainly sounds like a reasonable precaution (assuming you have a helmet handy, and donning one doesn’t delay your seeking more appropriate shelter), until now the CDC has not commented on the practice.

 

Today, we’ve a cautious statement from the CDC regarding the wisdom of using a helmet during a tornado.

 

For Immediate Release: May 3, 2012
Contact :CDC Division of News and Electronic Media
(404) 639-3286

CDC Statement on Helmets and Tornadoes

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention continues to recommend, as its first recommendation, that people in the path of a tornado find a shelter or a tornado-safe room. The safest place in the home is the interior part of a basement. If possible, get under something sturdy such as a heavy table or workbench.  If outdoors, lie down in a gully or ditch.

 

We understand that people who have seen the tragedy that tornadoes can impose are looking for any useful and effective ways to protect themselves. We don’t have research on the effectiveness of helmet use to prevent head injuries during a tornado, but we do know that head injuries are common causes of death during tornadoes, and we have long made the recommendation that people try to protect their heads.  Individuals may decide to use helmets to protect their heads. However, because the time to react may be very short, people who choose to use helmets should know where they are and have them readily accessible.  Looking for a helmet in the few seconds before a tornado hits may delay you getting safely to shelter.  For those who choose to use helmets, these helmets should not be considered an alternative to seeking appropriate shelter. Rather, helmets should be considered just one part of their overall home tornado preparedness kit to avoid any delay.

 

CDC continues to promote protective measures for use during natural disasters including tornadoes.  For more detailed information, go to http://emergency.cdc.gov/disasters/tornadoes/during.asp.

Everyday Preppers

 

 

# 6284

 

 

After watching Doomsday Preppers on the National Geographic Channel some may come away thinking that all preppers are crazed fanatics gearing up for an impending apocalypse. But for the vast majority of those who embrace the preparedness lifestyle - it is the far more common localized disaster that spurs them on.

 

Of course, if you want decent cable TV ratings, you don’t profile people who maintain a 14 day supply of necessities in their pantry, volunteer for CERT, have a family emergency plan, or take pride in keeping a well stocked first aid kit.

 

No . . .  you focus on families with elaborate underground bunkers, a 20 year supply of freeze-dried foods, and a firm belief that the end is nigh.

 

It is TV, after all. 

 

While we collectively wait for doomsday (and I’m perfectly content to wait a long, long time for mine) we are nonetheless faced with an ongoing parade of lesser - but no less burdensome to those affected – localized disasters.

 

Earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, tornadoes . . . .

 

They happen with surprising regularity - and unlike an abrupt 30 degree shift of the earth’s crust or the eruption of the Yellowstone Super Volcano - are something being prepared for is actually likely to help.

 

Later today parts of the Midwest will be under the gun, with a high risk of severe weather. NOAA’s  Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has released the following forecast.

 

 

For a sobering look at the disaster potential of a `high risk’ day like today, I can heartily recommend a recent blog post by Minnesota Meteorologist Paul Douglas.

 

Tornado Warning: "One of These Days a Single Tornado Will Claim Over 1,000 American Lives"

Posted: 04/ 4/2012 3:44 pm

 

Today the residents of Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Omaha, Nebraska, and surrounding areas find themselves at a high risk of severe weather, including possible tornadoes.  Hundreds of thousands more will find themselves at moderate risk.

 

While we can hope that these predicted storms do not materialize, hope is not a plan.

 

The smart move for those in harm’s way this morning is to review their emergency plan with all family members, double check their supplies, and ensure that they can keep tabs on approaching threats by way of a battery powered NOAA weather radio.

 

You don’t have to suffer a direct hit from an F5 tornado to be glad you were prepared.

 

A severe storm can knock out electrical power and phone service for days, sometimes weeks. Public services (including 911) can be severely disrupted, and something as routine as obtaining food and potable water for your family may be difficult for several days.

 

There are many legitimate disaster threats out there, which is why FEMA, READY.GOV, and many other agencies actively promote personal, family, and business preparedness.

 

To that end the Federal government has produced copious toolkits, brochures, pamphlets, and even mobile apps designed to help citizens prepare . . . for just about anything.

 

One such toolkit is FEMA’s Are You Ready? An In-depth Guide to Citizen Preparedness (IS-22) – which, at 204 pages – ranks as one of the most comprehensive guides to public preparedness available.

 

 

FEMA describes this guide as:

 

An In-depth Guide to Citizen Preparedness

Are You Ready? An In-depth Guide to Citizen Preparedness (IS-22) is FEMA’s most comprehensive source on individual, family and community preparedness. The guide has been revised, updated and enhanced in August 2004 to provide the public with the most current and up-to-date disaster preparedness information available.

 

Are You Ready? provides a step-by-step approach to disaster preparedness by walking the reader through how to get informed about local emergency plans, how to identify hazards that affect their local area and how to develop and maintain an emergency communications plan and disaster supplies kit. Other topics covered include evacuation, emergency public shelters, animals in disaster and information specific to people with access and functional needs.

 

Are You Ready? also provides in-depth information on specific hazards including what to do before, during and after each hazard type. The following hazards are covered: Floods, Tornadoes, Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and Lightning, Winter Storms and Extreme Cold, Extreme Heat, Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Landslide and Debris Flows (Mudslide), Tsunamis, Fires, Wildfires, Hazardous Materials Incidents, Household Chemical Emergencies, Nuclear Power Plant and Terrorism (including Explosion, Biological, Chemical, Nuclear and Radiological hazards).

<SNIP>

 

For more publications on disaster preparedness, visit the Community and Family Preparedness  webpage.

Are You Ready? An In-depth Guide to Citizen Preparedness Full Document (PDF - 21Mb)

(Continue . . . )

 

Disasters happen.

And while they don’t often occur on a national or international scale (an assumption with which residents of Haiti, Pakistan, and Japan might take exception), they can be devastating to large segments of our population.

 

While some of the more elaborate preparations shown on cable TV admittedly look more than a little screwy (even to this committed prepper), the greater delusion is in doing nothing and simply hoping for the best.

 

Some disaster plans may be screwy, but having no plan is just plain nuts.

SPC Warns Of Weekend Severe Weather Risk

 

 

 

# 6280

 

Spring and early summer are the time of year that typically produces the greatest number of severe thunderstorms and tornado outbreaks, and this morning NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a forecast for Saturday that includes a high risk of severe weather across parts of the central U.S.

 

SPC AC 130602
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0102 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012
   VALID 141200Z – 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND KS . . . THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NW TX...CNTRL    AND WRN OK...CNTRL AND ERN KS...SE NEB...NW MO AND FAR SW IA...   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MO   VALLEY...UPPER MS VALLEY...SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS...   TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS NWD INTO THE   MID-MO VALLEY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...

AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS FOUR CORNERS  REGION SATURDAY AS A POWERFUL 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A CORRIDOR OF  MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS ECNTRL KS...CNTRL OK INTO NW TX. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND  STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND  A TORNADO OUTBREAK WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

 

 

March, April, May and June generally see the strongest, and most frequent tornadoes, but in truth - these violent windstorms can occur any time of the year - particularly in the south. 

 

 

In an average year, more than 1,000 tornadoes are reported in the United States, but last year (2011) was unusually active. More than 750 tornadoes and 360 tornado-related deaths were reported during the month of April alone.

 

Credit http://www.spc.noaa.gov

 

 

All but a small part of the United States is vulnerable to these storms, but the strongest generally occur in an area we call Tornado Alley (below Left), which runs from middle Texas north though Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota.

 

This is the area where you will generally find the largest and most powerful tornadoes; the F5 wedge type. 

TORNADO ALLEY                       DIXIE ALLEY

Fortunately, much of the mid-west is sparsely populated, and so the number of tornado deaths that occur here are actually less than in other areas of the country.   

 

DIXIE ALLEY (above right) sees more frequent, albeit usually less severe tornadoes.  Due to a higher population density, more deaths occur in Dixie Alley than in Tornado Alley most years.

 

Which is why every home and office should have a NOAA weather radio. Once thought of as mainly a source of local weather information, it has now become an `All-Hazards' alert system as well.

 

 

In order to receive these broadcasts, you need a special receiver.  Many of these radios have a built in `Tone Alert', and will begin playing once they receive a special alert signal from the broadcaster.

 

Like having an emergency kit, a first aid kit, and a disaster plan - having a weather radio is an important part of being prepared. 

 

Despite dozens of major disasters (often weather related) that occur every year in this country, most Americans remain woefully unprepared to deal with emergencies.  

 

Agencies like FEMA, READY.GOV and the HHS are constantly trying to get the preparedness message out, so that when (not `if') a disaster does occur, human losses can be minimized.

 

For more information on how to prepare for emergencies, up to and including a pandemic, the following sites should be of assistance.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

You’ll find more than you ever wanted to know about tornadoes available from the SPC Tornado FAQ.

Safe At Home

 

Credit FEMA

 

# 6230

 

Although I preach preparedness there is admittedly one glaring lapse in my own emergency preparations   . . .   my current accommodations preclude my having a `safe room’ – designed to protect occupants against tornadoes and hurricanes.

 

When I lived in Missouri – which gets its fair share of tornadoes – having a full basement/storm shelter was both practical and a great comfort.

 

But here in Florida – where the water table is so high – basements are rarely practical.

 

EF-3 or Greater Tornado Threat – Credit FEMA

 

 

Florida is less at risk for big tornadoes (we have a fair number of small twisters), but is a frequent target of hurricanes. Therefore, when I do eventually move again, one of my hopes is that I can incorporate a hardened safe room to my preparations.

 

With memories of last year’s devastating tornado season still fresh, now is a good time to consider this potentially life-saving addition to your home. To that end, FEMA has a good deal of advice on exactly how to construct a safe room – either above or below ground.

 

 

Residential Safe Rooms

• Building a Safe Room in Your House
• Residential Funding Opportunities
• Examples and Case Studies

Having a safe room in your home can protect your family and save the lives of those you care about.

Find answers to your Questions about Building a Safe Room, including:

• What is the cost of installing a safe room?

• Can I install a safe room in an existing home?

• Can I build the safe room myself?

• Where is the best location for the safe room?

• Where can I find plans for safe room construction?

• And more....

Building a Safe Room in Your House

For more details about how you can build a safe room in your home, go to the Taking Shelter From the Storm: Building a Safe Room For Your Home or Small Business (FEMA 320) page before downloading it from the FEMA Library.

 

Residential Funding Opportunities

Grants, funding opportunities and various initiatives are available for individuals wishing to build a residential safe room.  See the resources below for additional information:

• Residential Funding

• Residential Initiatives

 

Examples and Case Studies

Learn how others have benefited from safe rooms.  See the following resources on the best practices case study web page.

 

The Tracks Of Our Fears

 

Severe Weather Tracks Feb 28th, 2012 Source NOAA 

# 6183

Yesterday morning, in It Happens Every Spring, I wrote about the inevitability of severe weather during this time of year, particularly from tornadoes in the mid-west and deep south.

 

As it turned out, overnight a number of severe tornado producing storms swept across Kansas, Arkansas, and Missouri.

 

The remarkable image above comes from NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Laboratory (h/t @JustinNOAA)

 

Feb 29, 2012

NOAA Radar Tracks Tornadoes in Midwest

NOAA's NEXRAD system of radars deployed throughout the United States provide meteorologists the most up-to-date information on the ground regarding severe weather, especially when it comes to identifying potential tornado outbreaks. By analyzing both the rotational velocity of the storm systems (the spinning of tornadoes has high rotational velocity compared to the surrounding storms) and presence of hail, scientists at the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory have developed a product that approximates the track of tornadoes, shown here for the February 29, 2012 storms in Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas.

At least four people have been killed and many others injured as these storms swept through the Midwest early in the morning. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has issued advisories for Tennessee and the surrounding areas for the remainder of the day. Although the tracks shown in this image are not actual confirmed ground tracks, they are helpful in identifying features associated with tornadoes, preparing communities for such potentially deadly outbreaks, and emergency response once a severe weather outbreak has passed.

 

More storms (and fatalities) have been reported today in Illinois, and as the graphic below from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma shows, the bad weather is moving eastwards.

 

 

 

While early in the storm season, these tornadoes should serve as a wake up call to prepare, and Ready.gov has the tools to help you do so.

 

 

If you haven’t created, practiced, and updated your family’s emergency plan, now is the time to do so.

It Happens Every Spring

 

 

Credit NOAA – NWS Storm Prediction Center

 

# 6178

 

For very good reasons, during the months of February and March many states across the nation – particularly in the mid-west and the deep south – promote a Severe Weather Awareness Week.

 

Last year’s record breaking tornado season, which claimed the highest number of lives in a half century, serves as a stark reminder of just how vulnerable we are to these violent weather events.

 

NOAA provides a State by State listing of Weather Awareness Events, and some states publish severe weather preparedness guides.  A few examples follow, but you can Google `Severe Weather Awareness’ and your State’s name, to see if one is available for your area.

 

 

Some states have Severe Weather Guides online, such as this website maintained by the Texas Department of Public Safety.

 

 

While it is impossible to predict just what kind of spring and summer storm season we will see, when warm moist air to the south and east does battle with cooler or drier air masses to the north and west, you have the basic ingredients for severe weather.  

 

And outbreaks of tornadoes can frequently result. 

 

But it isn’t just tornadoes that we watch out for. Straight line winds, downbursts, hail, lightning, and torrential rains are also hazards carried by these storms, and all can be deadly.

 

 

 

March, April, May and June generally see the strongest, and most frequent tornadoes, but in truth - these violent windstorms can occur any time of the year - particularly in the south. 

 

In an average year, more than 1,000 tornadoes are reported in the United States.   It is likely that the actual number is considerably higher, as not all tornadoes occur in areas where they can be seen or confirmed.

 

All but a small part of the United States is vulnerable to these storms, but the strongest of these storms generally occur in an area we call Tornado Alley (below Left), which runs from middle Texas north though Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota.

 

This is the area where you will generally find the largest and most powerful tornadoes; the F5 wedge type. 

 

TORNADO ALLEY                       DIXIE ALLEY

 

Fortunately, much of the mid-west is sparsely populated, and so the number of tornado deaths that occur here are actually less than in other areas of the country.   

 

DIXIE ALLEY (above right) sees more frequent, albeit usually less severe tornadoes.  Due to a higher population density, more deaths occur in Dixie Alley than in Tornado Alley most years.

 

To keep abreast of severe storm forecasts, you can visit NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center online.  There you’ll find interactive maps showing current and anticipated severe weather threats all across the nation.

 

 

Another resource is NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

 

Once thought of as mainly a source of local weather information, it has now become an `All-Hazards' alert system as well.

 

In order to receive these broadcasts, you need a special receiver.  Many of these radios have a special `Tone Alert', and will begin playing once they receive a special alert signal from the broadcaster.

 

Like having an emergency kit, a first aid kit, and a portable AM/FM radio - having a weather radio is an important part of being prepared. 

 

Most Americans are woefully unprepared to deal with emergencies.  This despite dozens of major disasters (often weather related) that occur every year in this country. 

 

Agencies like FEMA, READY.GOV and the HHS are constantly trying to get the preparedness message out, so that when (not `if') a disaster does occur, human losses can be minimized.

 

For more information on how to prepare for emergencies, up to and including a pandemic, the following sites should be of assistance.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

An Off-Season Reminder

 

 

Photo – GOES Weather Loop 2/5/12

 

# 6122

 

The Atlantic Hurricane season runs from June 1st through the end of November, but over the years we’ve seen a number of off-season tropical weather systems develop – albeit rarely in February or March.

 

Today, NOAA has their eyes on a disturbance off the western tip of Cuba that has a slim possibility of intensifying before it reaches Florida.

 

Early models drag it up and across the peninsula of Florida over the next couple of days, bringing with it some much needed precipitation. 

 

Model Credit – SWFTMD

There appears to be very little chance that this system will amount to much, but history records at least one February Tropical storm.; the famous Groundhog Day storm of 1952.

Photo Credit –Wikipedia

 

Sporting winds of 50 MPH when this system came ashore near Cape Sable, it did little damage, but surprised a lot of folks with its offseason arrival.

 

While not of tropical origin, the far more destructive `Super storm’ of March 1993 brought a 10 foot surge tide out of the Gulf of Mexico, pushed by hurricane force winds that battered the coast for 12 hours.  

 

 

As it raked up the eastern seaboard it dumped record amounts of snow from the Florida Panhandle to New England. Along the way it claimed more than 300 lives and inflicted more than $6 billion dollars in damage.

 

That storm is a vivid memory for me, as it saw me spending 12 very tense and cold hours aboard my 32-foot sailboat, trying to keep her from being damaged or sunk as the winds and tides battered us.

 

A not-so-gentle reminder that disasters can occur with little or no warning, and that severe storms can show up even when the calendar says they shouldn’t.

 

Preparedness is truly a year-round responsibility.

 

For more information on how to prepare for disasters or emergencies, the following sites should be of assistance.

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

A few of my preparedness blogs you might wish to revisit including:

 

When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough

In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

The Gift Of Preparedness 2011

 

In the meantime, it will be interesting to see if this little-storm-that-could turns into anything more than the answer to some future meteorological trivia question.

Weathering Heights: A Year For The Record Books

 

 

# 5996

 

 

Last August, in Weathering Heights: Billion-Dollar-Plus Weather Disasters, I linked to the National Climatic Data Center site for a detailed report that showed there had already been 9 billion-dollar-plus weather disasters in the United States in 2011.

 

This tied with 2008 as the highest number of weather related disasters on record, but given that it was only August, the odds favored setting a new record this year. 

 

Despite limited impact by the Atlantic hurricane season this year, as of December 7th, this year’s total now stands at 12.

 

 

Although 2005 remains the most expensive year for weather related disasters, the frequency of these events appears to be increasing.

 

Half of this year’s disasters centered around the record number of tornado outbreaks this past spring.

 

NOAA has produced an EXTREME WEATHER 2011 website, with a short video introduction by Jack Hayes, director of the National Weather Service (NWS). The links below provide details on this year’s biggest weather related disasters:

 

Billion-dollar disasters of 2011 (as of Dec. 7, 2011)

---

Groundhog Day blizzard »
January 29-February 3, 2011

Midwest/Southeast tornadoes »
April 4-5, 2011

Southeast/Midwest tornadoes »
April 8-11, 2011

Midwest/Southeast tornadoes »
April 14-16, 2011

Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest tornadoes »
April 25-28, 2011

Midwest/Southeast tornadoes »
May 22-27, 2011

Midwest/Southeast tornadoes and severe weather »
June 18-22, 2011

Southern Plains/Southwest drought and heatwave »
Spring-Fall, 2011

Mississippi River flooding »
Spring-Summer, 2011

Upper Midwest flooding »
Summer 2011

Hurricane Irene »
August 20-29, 2011

Texas, New Mexico, Arizona wildfires »
Spring-Fall 2011

 

 

For a fascinating summary of 112 weather related disasters over the past 31 years, NOAA has prepared a 4 page PDF file which you can download.

 

 

Each year September is designated National Preparedness Month, and agencies like NOAA, FEMA, and READY.GOV work year round to promote awareness and action.

 

Truly, the time to prepare for a disaster – weather related or otherwise – is now. 

 

Like death and taxes, disasters are inevitable. A few of my general preparedness blogs include:

 

When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough

In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

The Gift Of Preparedness 2011

 

To become better prepared as an individual, family, business owner, or community to deal with hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, or any other type of disaster: visit the following preparedness sites.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/