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Showing posts sorted by date for query Prepare. Sort by relevance Show all posts

Monday, October 26, 2026

The UK's `Be Ready' Preparedness Campaign

 

#19,387

While Avian Flu Diary is primarily an infectious disease blog, individual and community preparedness (for all kinds of emergencies) is its secondary focus. In  its archives you'll find hundreds of preparedness articles (link).  

While calls for individual preparedness are common in the United States (see National Preparedness Month), in Europe is is far less often discussed. 

Eighteen months ago, however, the EU made headlines after calling for all households to prepare for a wide array of disasters (see excerpts below).

What type of crises is the EU preparing for? 

The EU is preparing for a broad spectrum of risks and threats, encompassing both natural and human-induced disasters. This includes:
  • Natural disasters: floods, wildfires, earthquakes, and extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change.
  • Human-induced disasters: industrial accidents, technological failures, and pandemics.
  • Hybrid threats: cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns and foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI), and sabotage of critical infrastructure.
  • Geopolitical crises: armed conflicts, including the possibility of armed aggression against Member States.

       (SNIP)

Last December, we looked at the launch of  Denk Vooruit: The Netherlands National Citizen Preparedness Drive, on how to prepare for the first 72 hours of an emergency (e.g. extreme weather, cyberattacks, terrorist attack, even armed conflict, etc.).

Two months ago, in UK National Risk Register 2026 - Urges Citizen Preparedness, we looked at the UK government's sobering 223-page handbook for dealing with wide variety of  disaster scenarios. 


Late last week the UK quietly launched a new citizen preparedness campaign, which has gained a degree of internet notoriety over the weekend.  
Households encouraged to take small, simple steps to stay prepared in an emergency

Households are being encouraged to take a few simple steps to stay prepared if everyday services are temporarily disrupted, under updated advice published today.
Published:22 October 2026


Advice helps people feel better prepared for events such as severe weather, which can occasionally affect services like power, water, and the internet.
Campaign bolsters UK’s preparedness for emergencies, in line with European peers including France, Ireland and The Netherlands.
Simple steps include actions that are completely free, like signing up to the Priority Services Register, a service helping utility companies identify people most in need.

Households are being encouraged to take a few simple steps to stay prepared if everyday services are temporarily disrupted, under updated advice published today.

The advice is the first stage of a three-year campaign to help households across the UK feel better prepared for events such as severe weather, which can occasionally affect services including power, water, phones and the internet.

The campaign focuses on straightforward things people can do in advance, including signing up to the Priority Services Register - a service that helps gas, water, and electricity companies identify customers that may need extra support in an emergency - and keep a small supply of non-perishable food and bottled water at home.

With storms last winter and the wildfires this summer showing how severe weather events can cause disruption to our everyday lives and impact the services we rely on, from phone signal to water and the internet, launching the campaign brings the UK into line with European peers who all run similar campaigns already.

The government has worked with other countries to learn from their experience and best practice. For example, the advice to be prepared for three days of disruption that is at the heart of the UK campaign is also used by France, Ireland and The Netherlands.

The government has also worked closely with local resilience forums across the UK to root the advice in what works for local communities.

Dan Jarvis MP, Security Minister, said:
Those who can follow this advice should follow this advice. By taking simple steps to be ready for everyday emergencies like severe storms, people can reduce pressure on emergency services, helping them prioritise people who need more support in an emergency.

This is just the sort of community-focused campaign the UK needs to improve our resilience as a nation. It will bring us into line with European counterparts, where advice like this is a normal part of everyday life.
The ‘Be Ready’ campaign will build gradually over time. More than five hundred organisations across the UK, from charities to businesses, have already signed-up to share messaging and campaign assets within their networks and communities. Government channels like GOV.UK and social media accounts will also amplify content.

Over the coming weeks and months, social media and radio advertising will help reach audiences who may be particularly at-risk in everyday emergencies: families with young children and older people.

To ensure the updated advice is relevant and accessible to all, the ‘Be Ready’ campaign has been built in collaboration with charities and campaigners that work with groups that are often under-represented, including people with insecure housing and people who use foodbanks.

Many of the simple steps are quick and cost-free, like signing up to the Priority Services Register, and other steps are designed to be as low-cost as possible. The intention is that, if households that can take these steps do, emergency services will be able to prioritise those most in-need if an emergency were to happen.

The Government has published resilience advice for households since May 2024. While the ‘Be Ready’ campaign has seen the previous “Prepare” website updated with new messaging and branding, much of the advice has not changed and remains evergreen for households to follow.

Laura Scott, British Red Cross Director for UK Resilience, said:
We can’t control when emergencies happen, but we can all take some simple steps to be prepared, so that when they do, we are ready to help our friends, families and neighbours.

We know from our work across the UK that local people know their communities best and want to play a part when a crisis happens. Having clear and trusted advice for people, especially those who may be more at-risk, could help reduce the impact of crises and even save lives.

You can visit the UK's Be Ready Campaign webpage for more details.


As we discussed a month ago in #NPM26: Making Preparedness a Priority, I consider 72 hours the bare minimum level of preparedness, and would strongly recommend striving for 7 to 14 days. 

But it's a start. And once you achieve it, it can be added to over time. 

While no one can predict with any certainty what the next big regional or national emergency will be (in the UK, or anywhere else in the world),  a modicum of general preparedness can go a long way towards making a bad situation a little less dire. 

So . . . if a disaster struck your area today, and the power went out, stores closed their doors, and water stopped flowing from your kitchen tap for the next 7 to 14 days . . . do you already have:
  • A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
  • A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
  • Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
  • A way to provide light when the grid is down.
  • A way to cook safely without electricity
  • A way to purify or filter water
  • A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
  • A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
  • An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
  • Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
  • A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout
If your answer is `no’, then you're got some work to do. 

Friday, October 09, 2026

Isaias Forecast To Become A Major Hurricane Later Today - Landfall Tonight

 

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While wind shear may lower its intensity a bit (depending on timing) as it approaches the coast, Isaias is expected to be at least a strong CAT 2 storm at landfall, possibly higher.  

Regardless of its intensity, Isaias is expected to produce life-threatening surge, high winds, and torrential rains.  Residents in the affected area should hurry to complete the preparations today. 


While most people prepare for the actual storm, often the days (and sometimes weeks) following the storm are the most stressful.  

The power may be out for days, floodwaters may contain hidden dangers, local stores may be closed, and people may risk injury using chainsaws, generators, or ladders. 


I've written extensively on After The Storm Passes, but many of those preparedness links are no longer active. The CDC has updated their Preparing for Hurricanes or Other Tropical Storms webpage, covering most of those topics. 

A few related blogs you may wish to revisit include:

Wednesday, October 07, 2026

NHC: Isaias Now A Tropical Storm - Forecast to Threaten Northern Gulf Coast As A Strong Hurricane


 #19,362

October storms born in the Bay of Campeche have a reputation for spinning up rapidly as they approach a landfall.  Although that doesn't always happen, it occurs often enough to take these late season storms seriously.

While conditions in the gulf were described as `only marginally conducive for development' just 24 hours ago, the NHC is now forecasting Isaias to ramp up to a strong CAT 2 hurricane by the end of the week.

Estimated wind speeds and positions from today's (Oct 7th) NHC discussion:

Watches and warnings have not been raised yet, but the NHC will probably do so later today. For now the NHC's key messages to the public are:

 

Currently, it appears that anywhere from the western panhandle of Florida to central Louisiana are in the cone, but high winds, surge tides, and heavy rains are likely to impact well beyond those limits. 

Inland flooding could occur hundreds of miles inland, and spin-off tornadoes are possible across much of the southeast. Widespread power outages are likely. 
 
If this is your first hurricane season - or you are just in need of a refresher - you'll find a number of short videos on hurricane prepareded at this NOAA website:

Hurricane Prep: social media (English)

The Hurricane Preparedness Week Social Media Plan

2026 SOCIAL MEDIA PLANS AND VIDEOS English: May 3 - May 9, 2026

En español: 3 de mayo - 9 de mayo de 2026

Chinese: 年5月3日 - 2025年5月9日

Vietnamese: Ngày 3 Tháng 5, Năm - Ngày 9 Tháng 5, Năm 2026

English: Videos

En español: Videos

#HurricaneStrong #HurricanePrep

Please help the NWS spread the word about Hurricane Preparedness Week (May 3-May 9, 2026) on social media! Everyone is welcome to use the text and images provided below to help the NWS build a Weather-Ready Nation.

May 3, 2026 — Know Your Risk: Wind & Water

May 4, 2026 — Prepare Before Hurricane Season

May 5, 2026 — Understand Forecast Information

May 6, 2026 — Get Moving When a Storm Threatens

May 7, 2026 — Stay Protected During Storms

May 8, 2026 — Use Caution After Storms

May 9, 2026 —Take Action Today


While this blog, and many other internet sources (I follow Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, and Mike's Weather page), will cover this year's hurricane season. your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

California Declares State of Emergency to Bolster Statewide El Niño Preparedness


 

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Earlier this month, in #NPM26: Preparing For An El Niño Winter,  we looked at the potential for weather anomalies across the country due to a strengthening - and possibly historic - El Niño expected this winter. 

Predicting exactly where or when unusual or severe weather will occur due to El Niño is impossible, but typically, during El Niño the jet stream across the United States shifts storm tracks to the southern tier of states.

While that may mean more more snow or ice for the southern tier of states, heavy rains and possible severe weather across the Gulf states, while warmer and drier in the north - for California this often means repeated atmospheric rivers - bringing bringing flooding rains and a heavy Sierra snowpack. 

How bad any of these scenarios will play out is anyone's guess. Weather is complicated - and while this winter's El Niño could be unprecedented - there are no hard and fast rules about its effects.

Yesterday, the Governor of California declared a State of Emergency to aid in statewide preparation for El Niño's arrival later this year.  He also proclaimed a state of emergency in several states due to recent storm activity. 

I've only reproduced a brief excerpt from the announcement. Follow the link to read the statement in its entirety.  

        Sep 21, 2026
Governor Newsom proclaims state of emergency to bolster statewide El Nino preparedness, protect California

Proclaims states of emergency in several counties to support recovery from earlier storm activity and other events
What you need to know: Governor Newsom is taking early action to prepare California for what is shaping up to be a historic El Niño season, which is forecast to be very strong, even the strongest on record. The state of emergency helps California move faster to protect communities, stage critical resources, and strengthen readiness before severe weather intensifies.
SACRAMENTO – As a historic El Niño storm season develops, Governor Newsom is proclaiming a state of emergency today, mobilizing state resources ahead of potential winter storms and other impacts. The emerging El Niño event is already breaking records, and forecasters expect it to continue to strengthen, potentially becoming the strongest in recorded history. Today’s emergency proclamation streamlines measures to help California prepare for this historic event.

The Governor’s action puts California in a stronger position before winter weather intensifies. It directs state agencies to begin protecting vulnerable communities, prepare roads and critical infrastructure, stage emergency supplies, and help local partners reduce flood, landslide, and coastal risks.

Read the full proclamation here.

        (Continue . . . )
 

Those interested in diving into one of the more extreme (albeit, historic) scenarios of Atmospheric river flooding may wish to revisit 2022's California's ARkStorm Scenario Revisited & National Preparedness Month, but even a far less severe event could be devastating. 

image

While California may be first in line to feel El Niño's effects, ill effects, it won't be alone. So, if the power goes out, or flood waters rise, or the ground begins to shake . . . do you already have?
  • A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
  • A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
  • Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
  • A way to provide light when the grid is down.
  • A way to cook safely without electricity
  • A way to purify or filter water
  • A way to handle basic sanitation and waste disposal.
  • A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
  • A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
  • An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
  • Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
  • A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout

If not, you've got some important work to do.

A good place to get started is by visiting Ready.gov, or by hitting this link which will serve up a series of my preparedness blogs.

While being prepared can't guarantee you a good outcome, it can certainly increase your chances.

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

#Natlprep 2026: Pandemic Planning At Both Ends of the Spectrum

 

Note: This is the 16th day of National Preparedness Month. Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NatlPrep #BeReady or #PrepMonth hashtags.

This month, as part of NPM26, I’ll be rerunning some updated preparedness essays, along with some new ones.

#19,336

Next week (Sept 25th) the U.N. will host a meeting for world leaders in New York City for the purposes of pandemic planning, which will be broadcast live on UN Web TV.  

As this is a 1 day meeting, and it comes amid headwinds from several directions, it isn't clear exactly what will come from it.

Earlier this month, The Lancet published a comment (excerpts below) on this upcoming meeting, which discussed some of the many challenges it faces.


From commitment to governance: what should the 2026 UN high-level meeting on pandemic preparedness deliver?

Published September 4, 2026
DOI: 10.1016/j.langlo.2026.104070 External Link Also available on ScienceDirect External Link
Copyright: © 2026 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

 
Download PDF 
In September, 2026, world leaders will convene in New York for the second UN high-level meeting on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response (PPPR).1 The first high-level meeting produced a political declaration that reaffirmed commitments to strengthen pandemic preparedness and advance equity, catalysed the WHO Pandemic Agreement negotiations, and emphasised a whole-of-government and society approach to PPPR.1 Since then, member states have amended the International Health Regulations, adopted the Pandemic Agreement, expanded preparedness financing mechanisms, and proposed reforms to the broader global health architecture.

These developments represent substantial progress. However, the environment in which they must now operate has changed profoundly.
Geopolitical competition has intensified, multiple crises have diverted political attention and financial resources, official development assistance and multilateralism have come under increasing pressure, and the withdrawal of the USA from WHO has accelerated a turn towards nationalism and bilateral approaches to pandemic preparedness,2 adding another layer to an already complex architecture.
Meanwhile, regional institutions have assumed greater responsibilities for PPPR.3 In Africa, for example, the revised statute of Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) adopted in 2022 expanded the Africa CDC’s mandate and gave it authority to declare a Public Health Emergency of Continental Security, a power Africa CDC exercised during the 2024 mpox outbreak and again during the ongoing Ebola outbreak, alongside WHO’s declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Without meaningful coordination, parallel initiatives risk creating overlapping mandates, fragmented financing, and competing expectations relating to surveillance, pathogen sharing, data governance, and equitable access to medical countermeasures.4
Against this backdrop, the credibility of the high-level meeting should not be measured on the basis of yet another ambitious political declaration, but instead, on the basis of whether the meeting delivers a credible governance framework that aligns ongoing reforms, strengthens their coherence, and translates political commitments into sustained preparedness. We outline three priorities.

       (Continue . . . )

The expectation is that these world leaders will adopt a non-binding "political declaration" on preventing and preparing for future pandemics which was drafted over the summer. While long on good intentions, this document lacks much in the way of `teeth' (enforcement mechanisms, dedicated funding, or even a detailed roadmap).

Meanwhile, public health entities and researchers around the world continue to sound the alarm. A few (of many) examples: 

Whether these plans - or the vaccines and antivirals being stockpiled - will be adequate or appropriate for the next global health crisis remains to be seen. As we've seen before, No Pandemic Plan Survives Contact With A Novel Virus.

But having a framework for dealing with a crisis, and running realistic exercises, can be invaluable when the next pandemic strikes.

Most of these pandemic plans are created by - and for - national governments.  What planning may be going on at state/province/or local levels - or for the private sector - is harder to discern. 

But as many people learned to their cost during the last pandemic, it is just as important to be prepared on the individual, family, and neighborhood level.

Sadly, over the past few years much of the public guidance that was once heavily promoted by the CDC and HHS on pandemic preparedness has been expunged from their websites. 

It's as if the first rule of pandemic preparedness in the 2020's is . . . we don't talk about pandemic preparedness.

Buried in the CDC's archives, however, are a number of useful documents, including these from 2017 (download them while they are still available):


In addition to the advice offered in these (and other) guidance documents, I'd like to offer 5 things you can do today to prepare for a possibility of seeing another pandemic sometime in the reasonably near future.

1. Get, and become, a `Flu Buddy'

The first item is one we've discussed often (see Yes, We Have No Pandemic . . . But Line Up A Flu Buddy Anyway). I first fleshed out the idea in a 2008 blog called Lifelines In A Pandemic.

A `Flu Buddy’ is simply someone you can call if you get sick, who will then check on you every day (by phone, social media, or in person), make sure you have the food and medicines you need (including fetching prescriptions if appropriate), help care for you if needed, and who can call for medical help if your condition deteriorates.

Those people who care for others, like single parents, also need to consider who will take care of their dependents if they are sick.

2. Avail yourselves of the vaccines that are available now.

While the evidence is limited, there are some studies suggesting that getting the seasonal flu vaccine may give you some small degree of protection against the H5N1 virus. Even if it doesn't, it may reduce your chances of having a dual infection, which could either be more serious, or even lead to a reassortant virus.

COVID remains a threat, and a dual COVID-flu infection can be worse than either one alone, so if you can get one - keeping current with that vaccine makes sense as well.

Since bacterial co-infections are common with influenza, getting the latest appropriate pneumonia vaccines can also a smart move. In 2023, I also updated my Tetanus shot (Tdap), and those over 75 will want to consider the RSV vaccine.

3. Get a Dr. Checkup, Renew Rx Meds, & Handle any Medical Issues

Over the past 3 years I've endured two 21-day scalp and face field treatment (Fluorouracil) following my skin cancer surgery in 2024 (and again in 2026). 

I also got my Rx meds renewed, and have laid in a stock of any OTC meds I might need.

4. Stock up on PPEs or other supplies you might need

I went into COVID with an existing supply of N95 masks and gloves, and I refreshed my stocks in 2022, but if you don't already have all the N95/KN95 or other personal protective gear you would want or need during a pandemic, now is the time buy them.

Once a crisis begins, it is often too late to stock up. And that goes for any preparedness supplies or gear you might desire in an emergency (Hand Sanitizers/OTC meds/etc.)

5. Be prepared to Shelter in Place

If there was one lesson from the opening months of COVID, it is that many of us may elect - or be forced - to stay home, and avoid public places. Supply chains may be compromised, and there may be runs on `necessities' leaving some store shelves bare.

We see this every year before blizzards and hurricanes, and so it makes sense - whenever possible - to keep a stocked pantry, along with the other staples of life.
 
Last winter, in The Gift of Preparedness 2025 we looked a number of items that might make life more bearable during an extended `bug-in' situation.The good news is, much of what you need to do now to prepare for a pandemic would hold you in good stead for any prolonged emergency or disaster. Frankly, there is not much here I wouldn't do to be prepared for hurricanes, blizzards, or earthquakes.

And if we get lucky, and no pandemic (or other emergency) occurs in the near term, I'll count my blessings - and sleep much better at night - knowing I'd done everything I could to be prepared.

And as a wise man once said:

“Everything you say in advance of a pandemic seems alarmist. Anything you’ve done after it starts is inadequate." - Michael Leavitt, Former Secretary of HHS

Monday, September 07, 2026

Pathogen's Progress

H5 Affected States & Provinces June 2015


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Prior to 2021, North America had only had one brush with the Asian-origin HPAI H5 virus; a reassorted H5N8 subtype which appeared in South Korea in January of 2014 before beginning a world tour. 

It crossed the north Pacific - carried by migratory birds - the following fall, arriving in the Pacific Northwest in December 2014, sparking the first HPAI H5 epizootic in the United States and Canada (see map above).

That H5Nx virus, however, disappeared completely the following summer, apparently still ill-suited for long-term carriage by wild and migratory birds (see PNAS: The Enigma Of Disappearing HPAI H5 In North American Migratory Waterfowl).

That limitation would evaporate in the summer of 2016 when H5N8 reassorted into a far more robust threat (probably in China or Siberia) - arriving in Europe in October - and sparking their biggest (at that time) epizootic on record. EID Journal: Reassorted HPAI H5N8 Clade 2.3.4.4. - Germany 2016). 

This new H5N8 was not only deadlier to some bird species, it was more easily carried by others, increasing its range and impact dramatically over the next 6 months.  
We also saw this virus spin off several short-lived subtypes, including H5N5, H5N3, and H5N9. 
Over the winter of 2016-17, this H5N8 virus spread from Europe, into the Middle East, and then North Africa. By late spring, 2017, it had crossed the equator for the first time,  and set up shop in South Africa, making it the most successfully disseminated HPAI H5 virus we'd seen.
A European H5N6 briefly appeared in 2018, but H5N8 held on until a new, reassorted H5N1 virus appeared in Europe in 2020, and began to supplant H5N8. 

Unlike previous H5Nx incarnations, this new H5N1 showed an increased affinity for infecting mammals, and a much wider avian host range (see DEFRA: The Unprecedented `Order Shift' In Wild Bird H5N1 Positives In Europe & The UK).

By 2022 this `new and improved' H5N1 virus had crossed both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, spreading first to North America, followed by South America, the Antarctic, and most recently (2026) into Australia/New Zealand.   

While avian flu activity still decreased during the hotter months, no longer did HPAI H5 disappear completely each summer. It could be maintained (at low levels) in local birds, livestock, small mammals, and likely even the environment. 

All of which makes the HPAI H5 threat of today far different from what it was even a decade ago. The H5N1 virus of today has expanded not only its geographic range, but its host range as well.  

And it isn't done evolving. 

Since its arrival in 2021, the H5Nx virus has diversified into more than 100 distinct genotypes in North America alone, with scores of others emerging around the globe.  A few notable North American examples include:

These variants illustrate just how quickly (and dramatically) the avian `fluscape' can change, and we generally see those changes in the fall, when migratory birds - which spent their summers in their high latitude roosting areas - return. 

A 2016 study (see Sci Repts.: Southward Autumn Migration Of Waterfowl Facilitates Transmission Of HPAI H5N1), suggests that waterfowl pick up new HPAI viruses in the spring (likely from poultry or terrestrial birds) on their northbound trip to their summer breeding spots - where they spread and potentially evolve - and then redistribute them on their southbound journey the following fall.

Our own Arctic Refuge, where more than 200 bird species spend their summers, serves as a central hub, and funnels migratory birds south via all four North American Flyways.

While this fall's HPAI viruses could be similar to what we saw last year - they might include new, potentially game-changing, genotypes - which could either increase or decrease their threat.

Evolution is a double-edged sword, and what it adds it can also take away. But the trajectory of H5N1 over the past 4+ years has been towards more mammalian adaptation, and increased host range.  

The APPA estimates `Eleven (11) million U.S. households own backyard chickens (a 28% increase from 2023)', yet a recent survey (see MMWR: Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Regarding Avian Influenza Among Owners of Backyard Flocks) found significant gaps in their knowledge of dealing with avian flu.

While no one can predict with any confidence what HPAI will look like later this fall, the one thing we can be sure of is the 2026 fall southbound migration has already begun, and the time to prepare for its arrival grows shorter with every passing day. 

And if recent history is any guide, we should be preparing for additional surprises. 

Saturday, September 05, 2026

#NPM26: Preparing For An El Niño Winter

Credit NOAA

Note: This is the 5th day of National Preparedness Month. Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NatlPrep #BeReady or #PrepMonth hashtags.

This month, as part of NPM26, I’ll be rerunning some updated preparedness essays, along with some new ones.

#19,324

Two years ago I was forced to evacuate (for the 3rd time in 10 years) from my west-central Florida home due to the approach of hurricane Milton, which passed 50-60 miles to my south. 

While I live roughly 40 miles inland, and at a high (for Florida) elevation, we saw prolonged hurricane force winds, massive tree damage, and - thanks to 14" of rain in a few hours - a 500 year-flood.

It took 4 days for the water to recede enough for me to return home. Luckily I had a `disaster buddy' who took me and my cat in for the duration. I was lucky, my home wasn't flooded, although some only a hundred yards away were. 

It took 4 days to get power back on, and a week to get internet (see Signs of Life).  While my home took substantial wind damage, it was inland flooding that caused the worst damage to my community. 

Now, imagine that sort of rain dump happening - perhaps repeatedly - this winter in California.  That's the growing concern for state officials (see ABC-7 News  'Super El Niño' strengthens, triggering preparations for possible flooding in LA County).

Depending on the intensity, duration, and frequency of such storms, it could even lead to an ARkStorm event, which we first looked at 15 years ago in ARkStorm: California’s other "Big One".

While it sounds like the plot from a bad made-for-cable Sci Fi film, this actually comes from the USGS Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) analysis of a winter storm scenario with historical precedence.

From the USGS website: 

Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years.

We returned to this topic in 2022's California's ARkStorm Scenario Revisited, after the USGS released an updated assessment; one that suggested that as the climate grows hotter and dryer, it increases the odds of seeing another catastrophic ARkStorm event. 

Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood
XINGYING HUANG AND DANIEL L. SWAIN 
SCIENCE ADVANCES
12 Aug 2022
Vol 8, Issue 32
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abq0995

Abstract

Despite the recent prevalence of severe drought, California faces a broadly underappreciated risk of severe floods. Here, we investigate the physical characteristics of “plausible worst case scenario” extreme storm sequences capable of giving rise to “megaflood” conditions using a combination of climate model data and high-resolution weather modeling.

Using the data from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, we find that climate change has already doubled the likelihood of an event capable of producing catastrophic flooding, but larger future increases are likely due to continued warming. We further find that runoff in the future extreme storm scenario is 200 to 400% greater than historical values in the Sierra Nevada because of increased precipitation rates and decreased snow fraction. These findings have direct implications for flood and emergency management, as well as broader implications for hazard mitigation and climate adaptation activities.

       (Continue . . . )

This is an extreme scenario - and remains a low probability event despite this winter's El Niño - but even something less severe could cause considerable damage, and potentially loss of life. 

So, the question is, how ready are you and your family for severe weather this winter?  The LA County website  advises:

LA County is preparing its flood control and emergency response systems now. Crews are inspecting and maintaining dams, debris basins, channels, storm drains, and pump stations; monitoring burn areas, hillsides, and other areas at risk of flooding and debris flows; and preparing for evacuations, emergency shelter, and other storm response. County teams are also preparing to assist people experiencing homelessness, older adults, and others who may need additional help during severe weather.

Here’s what residents can do now:
  • Sign up for emergency alerts: Go to alert.lacounty.gov to receive emergency notifications, including evacuation warnings and orders.
  • Know the risks where you live: If you are near a hillside, canyon, recent burn area, or area that can flood, learn your flood and mudflow risk before a storm.
  • Make an evacuation plan: Know where you will go and how you will get there if you need to leave quickly.
  • Have supplies ready: Keep enough food, water, medications, and other essentials for up to 10 days.
  • Prepare your home: Clear gutters, downspouts, and storm drains, fix roof leaks, and get sandbags before heavy rain is in the forecast.
  • Consider flood insurance: Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage. Flood insurance is separate and can take at least 30 days to go into effect.
  • Need help with mud or debris flow risk? Call LA County Public Works at 1-800-933-0930 to speak with an engineer.
  • Know someone experiencing homelessness who needs help? Visit homeless.lacounty.gov/get-help/

But it isn't just California that could be impacted by a strong El Niño.  

Here in Florida - where we are enjoying the quietest Atlantic Hurricane Season in recent memory - we've a history of seeing strong winter storms during El Niño years, including the tornado outbreak of 1998 which killed 42 people. 

Predicting exactly where unusual or severe weather will occur this winter due to El Niño is impossible, but generally, the jet stream across the United States shifts storm tracks to the southern tier of states. 



While this doesn't guarantee that other areas will get a free ride this winter, it does suggest that California may be unusually wet, and ice storms and blizzards may be more likely to develop across the deep south this coming winter. 

Exactly where that may happen is unknowable, but five years ago (Feb 2021) 3 successive winter storms swept across Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma, causing the worst collapse of the Texas energy grid on record (see Texas: The Latest - But Not The Last - Grid Down Crisis).

At least 4.5 million homes were without power during a week of bitter winter temperatures, resulting in hundreds of deaths and tens of billions of dollars of damage (see City of Austin & Travis County 2021 WINTER STORM URI AFTER-ACTION REVIEW).



While I can't tell you where the next natural disaster will strike, or how bad it will be, being prepared for whatever comes is your best defense. 

So, if the grid goes down, or flood waters rise, or the ground begins to shake . . . do you already have?
  • A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
  • A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
  • Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
  • A way to provide light when the grid is down.
  • A way to cook safely without electricity
  • A way to purify or filter water
  • A way to handle basic sanitation and waste disposal.
  • A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
  • A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
  • An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
  • Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
  • A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout
If not, you've got some important work to do.  A good place to get started is by visiting Ready.gov.