Friday, December 28, 2007

That Was The Year That Was Pt. 1

 

# 1418

 

 

As we conclude 2007 - a year that saw scientists as nervous as a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs - it is appropriate that we look back at the big pandemic-related stories that crossed the flu world.  

 

Over the past 12 months I've made over 1100 blog entries.  It becomes easy to forget the events of last January or even June, given the rapid-fire nature of avian flu news. 

 

So today we look back at the first two months of 2007.  Over the next several days we'll cover the entire year.  As you will see, things got hot and heavy during the Winter and  Spring.

 

These are only the highlights.  Many reports are omitted.  You can follow the links to the original blog posting to read more.

 

 

January

 

The year opened slowly, with little breaking news.  In December of 2006, after nearly 2 months without a human case of bird flu, Indonesian officials expressed their hope that 2007 would be  a year without human infections in that nation.   Their hopes didn't last long.

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • On January 7th, the floodgates began to open when we got word of a 14-year-old boy in Jakarta who was hospitalized with suspected bird flu.

 

  • On January 8th, wire services reported JAKARTA (JP): One patient in Persahabatan Hospital was declared Monday of being infected with bird flu virus, while six patients were still suspected of suffering the fatal disease.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • January 13th: JAKARTA (JP): A 22-year-old woman, a suspected bird flu patient, died on Saturday morning in Persahabatan Hospital, Jakarta, hours after the death of a 27-year-old suspected bird flu patient in the same hospital Friday night.

 

  • The next several days has conflicting reports, official denials, and confused patient counts.   In the end many suspected cases are never confirmed, even though they spent days, or even weeks, in isolation.

 

  • From the  UK, word of the `Bird Flu Buddies' plan is unveiled on January 14th. Everyone in Britain will be asked to name a friend or relative who would be willing to bring them life-saving medication in the event of a flu pandemic.

 

 

  • As of January 15th in Indonesia  local media reports there are  69 suspected cases of avian flu in Indonesia.  Five cases have tested positive.  Twenty-two have been ruled negative.  And 42 remain on the `suspect' list.  

 

 

  • On January 17th, we learn of researchers who found evidence of H5N1 infection in dogs and cats on Bali.

 

  • January 18, 2007 : A strain of avian flu that is resistant to the antiviral drug oseltamivir has been isolated from two family members in Egypt, the WHO (World Health Organization) said yesterday.

 

  • Throughout the middle of January we get repeated stories of suspected H5N1 infections in Thailand, but all are eventually declared negative.

 

  • Indonesia declares a campaign to rid much of the nation of backyard poultry.  It's an ambitious plan.  Public resistance to the idea, and a lack of enforcement, severely hamper the effort.

 

 

 

  • Also on January 20th, South Korea announces a major cull of poultry near Cheonan.  Over the next few days that cull is expanded to more than 660,000 poultry and pigs to try to stem a new outbreak of potentially deadly bird flu.

 

 

 

  • January 27th, Arif Saad, the 18-year-old son of Riyah who died from the virus two weeks ago. Today, he was pronounced cured of the virus, and was allowed to go home.

 

 

 

February

 

The big news of January was Indonesia, and by month's end, the tally in the media was 5 dead without test results, 6 dead that tested positive for H5N1, 1 other positive test (Arif Saad), 81 suspected cases tested negative, and 128 pending tests.

 

There will be considerable controversy of the `negative tests' during the next few weeks, with many flu watchers doubting their veracity.

 

 

  • February 1st, During a 49 minute press conference the CDC  unveiled their 108 page document entitled : Interim Pre-pandemic Planning guidance: Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Mitigation in the United States—Early, Targeted, Layered Use of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions which is available here for download in pdf format.

 

  • February 2nd, the first reports of a bird flu outbreak in Suffolk, UK are printed by the media.  At first, this sounds like a minor outbreak, but soon the world will learn that this is at the Bernard Matthews factory in Holton, near Halesworth.

 

  • Also on February 2nd,  Massive flooding strikes Jakarta and much of Indonesia, halting attempts to cull backyard poultry for weeks.  Also, for the next few weeks very little bird flu news emerges from Indonesia. Unknown to most of the world, Health Minister Supari is withholding virus samples from the WHO.

 

 

  • February 6th, news breaks that Indonesia is withholding virus samples from the WHO and has worked out a deal for a vaccine with Baxter International.  Nearly 11 months later, this issue is still unresolved.

 

  • Tue 6 Feb 2007  JAKARTA, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Two more people in hard hit Indonesia, a 15-year-old girl from an upscale Jakarta neighbourhood and a 30-year-old man in West Java, have caught bird flu, a Health Ministry official said on Tuesday.

 

  • Also on Feb 6th,  ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) -- Laboratory tests confirm the H5N1 strain of bird flu has infected poultry near the capital and elsewhere in Pakistan, the agriculture ministry said Tuesday.

 

  • 8 February 2007, Rome - Cats can become infected with the highly lethal H5N1 avian influenza virus, but at present there is no scientific evidence to suggest that there has been sustained transmission of the virus in cats or from cats to humans, FAO said in a statement today.

 

  • Also on the 8th, the Press first reports on the link between a poultry processing plant in Hungary and the Bernard Matthews farm. The Bernard Matthews outbreak is easily the biggest story of the month, with hundreds of press reports filed.

 

 

  • Feb 9: Turkey's agriculture ministry has confirmed an outbreak of bird flu in the southeast of the country, just over a year after the H5N1 strain of the disease killed four children in the region.

 

 

  • February 10:South Korea has confirmed a sixth case of bird flu despite the culling of poultry after earlier cases, officials said today, raising concerns that quarantine measures had failed to control the outbreak.

 

  • Also on Feb 10th: Reports from Turkey indicate that 3 villages are quarantined and 3 children are hospitalized with suspected bird flu symptoms.  While the children will test negative, strict culling and containment procedures are enforced.

 

  • On Feb 11th, Indonesia announces that a 20-year-old woman died of bird flu early Sunday. "She died early Sunday," said Yogi Prayogi, a spokesman at Garut Hospital in West Java province, adding that two of the woman's neighbors also were hospitalized with symptoms of the disease.

 

 

  • Wed Feb 14: CAIRO (Reuters) - A 37-year-old Egyptian woman has tested positive for the deadly bird flu virus, bringing the number of confirmed cases in Egypt to 21.She has been transferred to Abbasiya (hospital) in good condition," said Hassan el-Bushra.  Despite the optimistic reports, she succumbs the following day.

 

  • Feb 16 (Reuters) - Bird flu has spread to 10 villages in southeast Turkey, where four children died of the virus a year ago, but no human cases have been reported, agriculture officials said on Friday.

 

 

  • And on Feb 16, Russia announces outbreaks of bird flu in and around Moscow.  By Feb 20th, reports stated that “Medical monitoring is under way for 5,453 residents in the relevant areas, including 20 citizens who were in direct contact with the infected birds,” said Gennady Onishchenko, Russia’s chief epidemiologist.

 

 

  • Also on the 20th: UK's pandemic flu drill dubbed Operation Winter Willow, part of which took place last month, is going on today.  It has been billed as a massive exercise, testing that government's ability to respond to a pandemic.

 

  • February 21st: KABUL, Afghanistan: Afghan authorities were culling poultry after an outbreak of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu in chicken in an eastern Afghan city, a U.N. official said Wednesday.

 

  • Feb 24th: After a very bad run, with no survivors of the H5N1 infection over the past few months in Egypt, they can celebrate today.  The 5-year-old boy reported to have been infected  last week has recovered.

 

  • February 25th: KUWAIT CITY: Kuwait has confirmed 20 cases of the deadly avian flu in birds including falcons, chickens and turkeys, a spokesman for the Health Ministry said Sunday. Ahmed al-Shatti said there were no human cases and an emergency plan has been activated.

 

 

  • Feb 26th: Two weeks after declaring their country free of the H5N1 virus (determined by 21 days without any reported occurrences), Vietnam is now reporting fresh outbreaks in the north.

 

  • Feb 27th: While it didn't come with a hearty endorsement, the FDA advisory panel today recommended the approval of the Sanofi Vaccine as both `safe and effective', despite concerns about the `effective' part of the equation.

 

  • CAIRO, Feb 27 (Reuters) - A four-year-old Egyptian girl has caught bird flu after coming in contact with infected domestic poultry, the 23rd case among humans in the North African country, the state news agency MENA said on Tuesday.

 

 

  • Feb 28th: HONG KONG - China on Wednesday confirmed a human case of bird flu, the country’s first for seven weeks, the Hong Kong government’s media service reported.The patient is a 44-year-old female farmer from Fujian province.

 

 

A good many media reports of suspected cases, and even clusters, were printed during this two month period, and often we never heard of the resolution.   Presumably, most of these tested negative and went home. 

 

While the number of reports seems impressive, January and February of 2007 was less active than the same period of 2006.

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