Avian Flu Diary: Ukraine: 95 Deaths Reported

# 3958

Thus far, there’s not a lot of news out of the Ukraine today. The death toll continues to rise, now with 95 fatalities reported.

Deaths, however, are a `trailing indicator’ of a pandemic’s impact. Victims may remain hospitalized for days or weeks before succumbing, and of course, reports of deaths may be incomplete or late in arriving.

And complicating matters, there may be more than one pathogen at work here. Media reports indicate several circulating influenza strains, although we need more lab confirmation to be sure.

Media reports, of course, should all be viewed with a degree of skepticism. While the mounting death toll is distressing, there does not appear to be any huge spike in the rate of fatality reports coming from this outbreak.

Update: more death, illness

Nov 5th at 14:10 | (Wire reports)

Ukraine’s Health Ministry on Nov. 5 said the death toll of patients with flu-related and acute respiratory illnesses (ARI) had jumped to 95.

Deputy Health Minister Zinoviy Mytnik said told journalists during a press briefing that a total of 633, 877 cases of flu-related and ARI have been registered from Oct. 29 through Nov. 5.

Mytnik said 15 of 31 patient samples sent to London for laboratory analysis tested positive for the H1N1, or swine flu, virus.

Meanwhile, over 600 doctors Kyiv have fallen sick with the flue and acute respiratory illnesses, according to Kyiv deputy Mayor Iryna Kilchitskaya, who on Nov. 5 told a daily Kyiv newspaper that 200 of the afflicted are doctors.

In a related story, Ihor Pokanevych, head of the WHO office in Kyiv, told Deutsche Welle on Nov. 5 that in Ukraine, as in the rest of the world, there will be three waves of the swine flu virus: the first – which Ukraine is experiencing now, the second – in the spring, and the third – during the autumn of 2010.

Pokanevych noted that the current pandemic is complicated to sort out because it involves three strains of flu virus: two seasonal strains [of the Brisbane] flu and the swine flu, which as a result could lead the virus to mutate into a still more virulent, new virus.

Yushchenko attacks rivals over flu epidemic
Yesterday at 23:48 | Reuters

Nov 4 (Reuters) - Ukrainian leader Victor Yushchenko on Wednesday accused opponents running against him in a January presidential election of criminal negligence in the way they have handled an outbreak of swine flu.Yushchenko said bitter rival Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, ex-prime minister Viktor Yanukovich and parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn were all aware of a flu epidemic in the week they organised mass rallies for their own campaigns.

(Continue . . .)

And below is the text of the Ukrainian President’s national address on the pandemic crisis.