Avian Flu Diary: John Oxford On Pandemic H1N1

# 4631

Not being a virologist – or a scientist of any stripe – I haven’t attempted to offer any personal opinions about how the pandemic H1N1 virus would play out.

Frankly, I’ve no idea what happens next.

About the best I can do is to offer my readers the opinions of reputable scientists from around the world, and whenever possible, try to add a little context of my own.

One well respected scientist who remains vocal about the threat of H1N1 is Professor John Oxford, Scientific Director of Retroscreen Virology Ltd. and a Professor of Virology at St Bartholomew’s and the Royal London Hospital, Queen Mary’s School of Medicine and Dentistry.

A little over a year ago Oxford was publicly insisting that the real number of infected from the H1N1 virus in the UK was many times greater than the British government was saying (see A Yank From Oxford).

As it turned out, he was right.

Oxford is concerned that the return of H1N1 in the fall could bring with it another bad flu season. That we aren’t out of the woods just yet.

Oxford has suggested in the past that mutations in the H1N1 virus are less likely to occur until a certain amount of herd immunity is achieved. There have been studies that indicate that vaccination pressure may drive antigenic drift in flu viruses.

As the the supply of easily infected hosts dwindles, the virus must either learn to evade this acquired immunity or die off.

Oxford is extensively quoted in the Irish Times today concerning his views about the future of the H1N1 virus. I’ve just excerpted the `money quote’ below.

Follow the link to read the article in its entirety. A hat tip to Roehl_JC on FluTrackers for this link.

I think that swine flu is still going to cause trouble, says virology professor

(EXCERPT)

“I think swine flu is still going to cause trouble,” says John Oxford, professor of virology at St Bartholomew’s and the Royal London Hospital, and scientific director at Retroscreen Virology, a contract research organisation that conducts trials on anti-viral drugs and vaccines.

“Great viruses start small and go big rather quickly, so we have to be careful,” he says. “Pandemic H1N1 is a virus with a sting in its tail and I think that’s what we have to contend with. It’s too early to do a postmortem. We will see what lies ahead, but viruses don’t go easily into this dark night.”

(Continue . . . )

Obviously, we’ll have to wait to see what happens this fall. As I said, I’m not in the prediction business.

My advice today remains pretty much the same as what I gave thirteen months ago, before the pandemic was declared (see An Appropriate Level Of Concern).

Specifically, I suggested that everyone should :

have a good family and business emergency plan

acquire and maintain a 2-week stockpile of emergency supplies

routinely practice good flu hygiene

get the appropriate vaccines when they are available

have and be a flu buddy

look out for your neighbors and greater community

Last October, during the peak of the outbreak, I stated:

I see no need to hunker down at home, or to live in fear over this virus. This is a serious situation, of course. And tragically, this virus will claim thousands of lives over the next few months.

It certainly deserves your attention, vigilance, and respect.

But not your fear.

The same holds true today.

Whatever should come this fall or winter, a little preparedness on your part will go a long way towards blunting its impact. And at the same time, you’ll be in pretty good stead to deal with any other crisis, like an earthquake, tornado, blizzard, or hurricane.

Which sounds like a win-win proposition to me.

For more preparedness information, go to: