Avian Flu Diary: A Serving Of Spaghetti

# 4667

Although it isn’t even a tropical depression (yet) - and it may fail to intensify - watchful eyes in the Gulf of Mexico are understandably trained on an area of disturbed weather south of Haiti/Domician Republic that has the potential to grow into a tropical storm.

With the oil spill cleanup ongoing in the Gulf, any storm threat is seen as a potentially serious complicating factor.

Since we are just three weeks into what is expected to be an active hurricane season, we need to get used to this drill. We are likely to see it repeated it many times over the next few months.

This morning’s computer runs track this area of disturbed weather generally towards the Gulf of Mexico, and conditions are somewhat favorable for slow intensification.

Below you’ll find the `spaghetti model’ for this system. As you can see, right now there is a good deal of variance in the forecast track.

Invest 93L 22-Jun 08:06 EDT sfwmd.gov

A couple of important points are in order.

First, assuming this system does become a depression or a tropical storm, it must either thread the needle between Yucatan and the western tip of Cuba, or cross over land before entering the Gulf.

And second, model runs when a system remains unorganized are notoriously error prone. Once a decent LLC (Low Level Circulation) is established, these models become more reliable.

That said, Bloomberg News is reporting this story this morning.

Tropical Storm May Pose Threat to BP Spill Cleanup

By Stuart Biggs and Jeremy van Loon - Jun 22, 2010

The first storm of the Atlantic hurricane season may enter the Gulf of Mexico as soon as next week, possibly disrupting BP Plc’s efforts to clean up the worst oil spill in U.S. history.

Thunderstorms in the Caribbean may strengthen into a tropical storm this week before heading into the Gulf between Mexico and Cuba, said Jim Rouiller, a senior energy meteorologist at Planalytics Inc. in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.

(Continue . . .)

For now the National Hurricane Center is giving this system about a 40% chance of developing over the next 48 hours.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. UPPER-LEVELWINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT ... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

While it is early in the season, it isn’t too soon to see a storm develop, and climatologically, the western Caribbean is where we would be looking right now.

Typical June Pattern

Whether this storm develops or not, it is a reminder that it isn’t too early for Gulf and Atlantic Coast residents to be preparing for this hurricane season.

Last week was National Hurricane Preparedness week, and during the month of May this blog devoted considerable time to the subject.

Some essential hurricane resources to get you started include: