Avian Flu Diary: Watching The Gulf Of Mexico This Weekend

# 6399

For a year that has been predicted to have near-normal tropical activity (see NOAA: `Near Normal’ Hurricane Season Predicted), the Atlantic basin has gotten off to a pretty fast start.

The month of May saw the formation of two pre-season tropical storms (Alberto & Beryl). While Alberto stayed out to seas, Beryl paid a visit to northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia. Hurricane (now demoted to a tropical storm) Chris has been meandering across the high latitudes of the Altantic over the past week, affecting only shipping.

Now, barely into the third week June, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are watching an area just off the Yucatan peninsula that they give a high chance of becoming the 4th named storm of this very young tropical season.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTALCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICALDEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

Forecast models at this stage of the game – before a well defined center of circulation forms – are usually pretty vague, and not terribly reliable. As you can see by this morning’s computer runs, everyone from Texas to Florida needs to keep an eye on this system.

Credit SWFTMD

Intensity models are even more problematic, but there is ample heat energy in the warm gulf waters to feed a respectable tropical storm or even a hurricane.

All of which means that residents all along the gulf coast need to be examining their hurricane preparedness plans while they keep their eye on this system.

Over the last month I’ve run a number of Hurricane preparedness blogs in concert with National Hurricane Preparedness Week. You may wish to revisit one of the following as you review your own preparations.