# 8180
With new cases being reported on a daily basis, and China’s biggest holiday and travel season (Lunar New Year) just two weeks away, China’s NHFPC has issued an opinion on the current risks posed by the H7N9 virus, calling a pandemic `unlikely’.
First, this report from Xinhua News, followed by a link and an excerpt from the actual statement.
H7N9 epidemic unlikely: health watchdog
English.news.cn 2014-01-17 20:12:45
BEIJING, Jan. 17 (Xinhua) -- China's National Health and Family Planning Commission said on Friday that a large-scale H7N9 epidemic is unlikely, following 28 cases reported nationwide this year.
"Current cases are scattered, and no mutation of the virus has been idntified so far that could affect public health," said a Friday statement from the commission.
The 28 cases of human infection of H7N9 so far were reported in east China's coastal regions of Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu as well as south China's Guizhou and Guangdong provinces.
Guangdong reported on Thursday two new cases of human H7N9, and another avian flu patient that died on Wednesday after treatment failed.
"The virus is still spreading from birds to human, and the chances of large-scale human H7N9 infection are slim," the statement said, citing experts.
However, the commission noted that cases will keep rising as the country's urban and rural fowl markets are scattered while the transporation and trade of poultry will become more frequent to meet the demand around the upcoming Spring Festival.
The commission urged local health departments to strengthen monitoring and step up treatment of patients while carrying out detailed prevention and control measures and timely risk evaluations.
Here is the (machine translated) statement from the NHFPC .
National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic 2014-01-17
A recent human infection of H7N9 avian influenza situation and the situation is judged
Into winter quarters in 2013 to strengthen our country and around the ILI unexplained pneumonia surveillance, strengthening of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza. Since January 2014, Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces, five confirmed cases were found in 28 cases cases cases were sporadic. Up to now, monitoring found no public health significance of virus occurrence of variation. Experts judged that since the transmission of the virus is still the birds to people, urban and rural prevalence of live poultry market transactions, backyard poultry in the short term is difficult to eliminate the phenomenon, coupled with the Spring Festival approaching, live poultry transport, trade and consumption of more frequent, our China will continue to appear human infection with H7N9 avian influenza sporadic cases, but the small possibility of a pandemic.
I think that it is fair to say, as long as this virus does not acquire new mutations that allow it to adapt better to transmitting between humans, the pandemic risk remains low.
When (or even if) such changes will ever occur is unknown.
But given the severity of many of the infections we’ve seen, the presumed lack of global immunity to H7 influenza viruses, and the fact that influenza viruses are constantly evolving - even a low risk of a pandemic makes this virus one to watch closely.
