Avian Flu Diary: NASA: Solar Max Is Finally Here

An M2 (medium) Class solar flare, with CME and an S1 (minor) Class Radiation storm recorded by NASA on June 7th, 2011.

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My fascination with the sun began more than a half century ago, and it’s all really Dr. Frank Baxter’s fault. For those of us of a certain age in this country, the Bell Telephone Science Series featuring `Dr. Research’ (Baxter) was our first real introduction to science.

For a nostalgic serving of retro solar science, OUR MR. SUN (1956) staring Dr. Frank Baxter and Eddie Albert is available on the Internet Archive. What this old film lacks in 21st century science, it makes up with charm.

Dr. Research (Frank Baxter)

Science, and our understanding of the sun, has grown remarkably over the past half century, but the star at the center of our solar system still holds many mysteries. Many of my readers are aware that we’ve been waiting . . and waiting . . .and waiting for the sun’s `11 year-cycle’ to peak to its `Solar Maximum’ for three years.

Five years ago, some scientists were predicting one of the strongest Solar Max’s on record by about 2011.

That didn’t happen. Instead, today - several years later than expected - the sun has finally reached solar maximum, and it is the weakest maximum observed in a century..

First a report from NASA, after which I’ll be back with a bit more:

Solar Mini-Max

June 10, 2014: Years ago, in 2008 and 2009 an eerie quiet descended on the sun. Sunspot counts dropped to historically-low levels and solar flares ceased altogether. As the longest and deepest solar minimum in a century unfolded, bored solar physicists wondered when "Solar Max" would ever return.

They can stop wondering. "It's back," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center. "Solar Max has arrived."

A new ScienceCast video examines the curious Solar Max of 2014. Play it

Pesnell is a leading member of the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle Prediction Panel, a blue-ribbon group of solar physicists who meet from time to time to forecast future solar cycles. It's not as easy as it sounds. Although textbooks call it the "11-year solar cycle," the actual cycle can take anywhere from 9 to 14 years to complete. Some Solar Maxes are strong, others weak, and, sometimes, as happened for nearly 70 years in the 17^th century, the solar cycle can vanish altogether.

Pesnell points to a number of factors that signal Solar Max conditions in 2014: "The sun's magnetic field has flipped; we are starting to see the development of long coronal holes; and, oh yes, sunspot counts are cresting."

(Continue . . .)

Despite its weak showing, yesterday the sun produced two X-class solar flares – albeit on the incoming limb of the sun – and not earth directed. The sun spots responsible for that double-whammy are still flickering with magnetic instability, and will rotate into a geo-effective position over the next couple of days.

Today’s report from NASA references a large CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) in 2012 that - had it been earth-directed- could have caused a great deal of damage.

Indeed, this "Mini-Max" has already unleashed one of the strongest storms in recorded history. On July 23, 2012, a plasma cloud or "CME" rocketed away from the sun as fast as 3000 km/s, more than four times faster than a typical eruption. The storm tore through Earth orbit, but fortunately Earth wasn't there. Instead it hit NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft, which recorded the event for analysis. Researchers now believe the eruption was as significant as the iconic Carrington Event of 1859—a solar storm that set telegraph offices on fire and sparked Northern Lights as far south as Hawaii. If the 2012 "superstorm" had hit Earth, the damage to power grids and satellites would have been significant.

Long time readers will remember that I described this `Carrington Event’ in some detail in 2010, and have talked about some of the planning and preparation being done by NASA, the Military, and FEMA in anticipation of another major solar storm (see NASA Braces For Solar Disruptions).

This isn’t science fiction. Although no one knows when the next major solar flare will head in our direction. It could happen today, or it might not happen for decades.

Smaller, but disruptive solar storms have caused serious power outages and communications disruptions in recent decades, including the infamous Quebec power outage of 1989, and a 2003 solar storm that damaged a number of satellites and also caused some power outages in Europe.

In 2009 the National Academy of Sciences produced a 134 page report on the potential damage that another major solar flare could cause in Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts.

In November of 2012 the U.S. National Intelligence Council released a report called "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" that tries to anticipate the global shifts that will likely occur over the next two decades (see Black Swan Events).

Making their top 10 list (coming in at #7) was:

7. Solar Geomagnetic Storms

"Solar geomagnetic storms could knock out satellites, the electric grid, and many sensitive electronic devices. The recurrence intervals of crippling solar geomagnetic storms, which are less than a century, now pose a substantial threat because of the world's dependence on electricity," the report says.

And last year Lloyds of London issued a risk assessment for the insurance industry called Solar storm Risk to the north American electric grid which calls another `Carrington’ class event inevitable, and the effects likely catastrophic, but the timing is unknowable.

While the odds of us seeing a `Carrington Event’ during this upcoming solar maximum are fairly low, they are not zero. Solar flares of this size are predicted to impact earth every 150 years, so it may be decades before another one comes our way.

I certainly don’t advocate lying awake at night worrying about solar flares (I certainly don’t!). But I do believe that we all need to be prepared to deal with a variety of disaster scenarios.

The simple truth is, if you are well prepared to deal with an earthquake, pandemic, or a hurricane . . you are automatically in a better position deal with any other disaster, including low probability-high impact events like massive solar storms.

An `All Hazards’ preparedness approach, rather than concentrating on a single perceived threat, is by far the best way to go.

Whether you live in the United States, the UK, or anywhere else in the world, you can find good preparedness information at the following links: