#14,175
On Sunday morning I mentioned the possibility of tropical development in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Today, the Nation Hurricane Center has upped the odds to 80% over the next 5 days, and have released the following Key Messages.
While a major hurricane is unlikely, we've seen the damage that can be caused by heavy rains from slow moving tropical system, and many rivers and streams in the Mississippi valley are already at or near flood stage.
This morning's tropical outlook reads:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center
Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A broad low pressure system located over the eastern Florida Panhandle is producing disorganized shower activity. The low is forecast to move southward to southwestward and emerge over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico later today. Once the system is over water, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation, and a tropical depression is likely to develop by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone forms, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas coast to the western Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Forecaster Stewart
If you haven't already done so, now is the time to visit NOAA's Weather-Ready Nation 2019's Hurricane Preparedness week web page, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe during the coming tropical season.
If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.
