Avian Flu Diary: Osterholm Interview: COVID-19

#15,076

In the world of epidemiology and public health you'd have to go a very long ways to find anyone with more experience, credentials, and credibility than Dr. Michael T. Osterholm, Director of CIDRAP, and selected by the US Department of State as one of five 2018 US Science Envoys.

I've featured his interviews, and his writings, many times in this blog - including my review of his 2017 book Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs - which contained a remarkably apropos chapter called SARS & MERS: Harbingers of Things to Come.

For the record, I've spoken to Mike several times over the years, and he invited me to speak at an H1N1 conference in Minneapolis in the fall of 2009. Mike and the whole gang at CIDRAP have been very supportive of this humble blogger. Sadly, 2009 was the only time I've actually met Mike in person (so far).

Like many in Flublogia, I admire Mike's willingness to speak bluntly about public health risks, even when it ruffles some feathers (see Osterholm: NYTs OP-ED - We’re Not Ready for a Flu Pandemic - JAMA: Osterholm Interview - Our Vulnerability To Pandemic Flu - MinnPost: The Osterholm Interview).

In 2005 Osterholm likened a severe pandemic to an 18-month global blizzard, where nearly everything is shut down. Many will be without a paycheck, either due to their refusal to work and risk exposure, or because their jobs are simply no longer available (see Baby, it's Cold Outside).

One of his greatest worries has long been the limitations of our J.I.T (Just In Time) inventory system and the fragility of the global supply chain, a topic he revisits at length in his 2017 book Deadliest Enemy.

Ironically, the ways we have organized the modern world for efficiency, economic development, and for enhanced lifestyle -- the largely successful attempts to transform the planet into a global village -- have made us more susceptible to the effects of infectious disease than we were in 1918.

And the more sophisticated, complex, and technologically integrated the world becomes, the more vulnerable we will be to one disastrous element devastating the entire system.

This has the potential of being a bigger challenge, and ultimately claim more lives, than a pandemic virus, and is a scenario we've looked at many times, including in 2018's Supply Chain Of Fools (Revisited).

Yesterday Osterholm gave a 90 minute interview to Joe Rogan - and while it covers a number of fascinating infectious disease topics - its main focus is on our current COVID-19 pandemic. For the short course, you can watch the opening 15 minutes of the podcast.