#15,098
Last October, in The Inaugural Global Health Security Index, the United States - followed by the UK, The Netherlands, Australia, and Canada - were judged to be the best prepared to deal with a severe pandemic. The report, however, cautioned, that `Even high-income countries are found lacking and score only in the average range of preparedness'
While these rankings may provide some bragging rights, the most prepared countries are essentially just the cleanest shirts in the laundry hamper.From the report: The average overall GHS Index score is 40.2 out of a possible 100. While high-income countries report an average score of 51.9, the Index shows that collectively, international preparedness for epidemics and pandemics remains very weak.
Even though pandemics have been routinely listed as the greatest single national security threat for many nations for the past couple of decades, very little has actually been done to prepare for one. The 2017 UK Civil Risks Register lists a severe pandemic above all other threats (see chart below).
From the UK's 2018 National Security Capability Review (NSCR), a list of the greatest threats facing the UK over the next 5 years.
Diseases and natural hazards affecting the UK.
One or more major hazards can be expected to materialise in the UK in every five year period. The most serious are pandemic influenza, national blackout and severe flooding. We published the latest edition of the National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies in September 2017. It provides an assessment of the likelihood and potential impact of a range of different civil emergency risks that may directly affect the UK over the next five years.
Over the years, we've looked at a number of pandemic exercises held in the UK, including:
UK: Updated Pandemic Response Plan & Exercise Cygnus
UK: Lessons Learned From Winter WillowGiven the awareness of the threat, and years of planning, the UK should be in a reasonably good position to deal with COVID-19. On paper, anyway.
But over the past 48 hours, following their announced strategy for dealing with COVID-19 (see UK CMO: Moving From Contain To Delay Phase On COVID-19) - we've seen a strong push back from many doctors and scientists worried that their approach will cost lives.
Rather than take aggressive, proactive social distancing measures now, the UK plan is to delay those sort of `disruptive' measures as long as possible. Instead they plan to ask the elderly to stay home, and hope that `herd immunity' among younger, healthier individuals will slow the pandemic.Overnight the BBC reported:
Coronavirus: Some scientists say UK virus strategy is 'risking lives'
By Pallab Ghosh Science correspondent
14 March 2020
More than 200 scientists have written to the government urging them to introduce tougher measures to tackle the spread of Covid-19.
In an open letter, a group of 229 scientists from UK universities say the government's current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and "risk many more lives than necessary".
(Continue . . . )
Today, the UK's CMO office released the following update, which announces their informational campaign on COVID-19. The primary message appears to be, stay home for 7 days if you are sick, and wash your hands often.
Next stage of expanded coronavirus (COVID-19) public information campaign launches
Launch of the next stage of the public information campaign including TV adverts featuring CMO Professor Chris Whitty.
Published 15 March 2020
From:Department of Health and Social Care
People are being urged to stay at home for seven days if they develop a high temperature or new continuous cough as part of an expanded public awareness campaign in the fight against COVID-19, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has announced today (Sunday 15 March).
For the first time, members of the public will see advice in TV adverts featuring Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty and voiced by actor Mark Strong as part of the government’s drive to ensure everyone knows the best way to limit and delay the spread of the COVID-19.
Building on the current campaign, which reinforces the importance of washing your hands more often, the next phase reflects the government’s shift into the ‘delay’ phase of its action plan to limit the spread of the virus. A key part of this is asking people to self-isolate for seven days if they develop a high temperature or a new continuous cough – however mild.
As well as on TV, people will see and hear the campaign advice in newspapers and magazines, on drive-time radio, online and through social media and on billboards and large digital displays, including at bus stops.
(Continue . . . )While there are serious concerns over this approach, the notion of maintaining `Business as usual' - at least for as long as possible - has actually been part and parcel of the UK's pandemic planning approach for at least 15 years.
In my 2008 blog UK Hopes For `Business As Usual' During A Pandemic, we looked at an article that appeared in The Times Online after the 2007 Winter Willow exercise, outlining the key points of the UK's pandemic plan.
Crisis targets
—The aim is to keep the nation open for business
—International flights will not be banned, although airline companies must prevent the sick from travelling
—There are to be no road blocks outside cities
—Ministers do not want armed troops on the streets or afflicted communities treated like 17th century plague villages
—Police will guard antiviral drug supplies and vaccines
—Employers are to stagger working hours so that a reduced public transport system will be able to cope
—Healthy people are expected to go to work. An absenteeism rate of 15-30 per cent is expected in each business including MPs and peers in Parliament, which itself will not close
Again in 2011, as reported by the Guardian, following the release of the UK's 2011 Pandemic plan:
Pandemic contingency plan advises business as usual strategy for UK
Bird and swine flu outbreaks or other virulent diseases would not cause closing of borders or isolation of patients, says document
James Meikle
Thu 10 Nov 2011 07.09 EST
Britain would remain on a "business as usual" footing in the event of a global flu outbreak with no closing of borders, ban on mass gatherings or restrictions on public transport under the new national plan (pdf) for dealing with a pandemic.
(Continue . . . )
And this attitude crops up again, just two weeks ago, in the following BBC report:
Coronavirus: Wales 'business as usual' says First Minister Mark Drakeford
While I admire the notion of `British reserve' and their `carry-on' attitude - and fully understand their desire to avoid wrecking their `post-Brexit' economy by instituting a prolonged lockdown - a collapse of their already challenged NHS system would be disastrous.
Not only for their politicians, but for for everyone in the UK that needs medical care.It's a big gamble. And since my crystal ball is foggy, I can't rule out that their approach might work. But the odds of success appear very long, the opportunities for failure are myriad, and the stakes are so very high.
Whether they stay the course, or are forced to pivot due to public pressure (or circumstances) remains to be seen. No pandemic plan - now matter how well crafted - survives contact with the virus.However the UK's response turns out, we'll know a lot more about dealing with a severe pandemic a year from now, which will hopefully help guide us during the pandemic-after-next.
