Avian Flu Diary: A Tropical Hat-Trick For May? & Florida's Disaster Tax Holiday

60% Chance of Development over 48 Hours

#15,293

Since early April we've seen a procession of early season forecast models released by forecasters at Colorado State University, Pennsylvania State University ESSC, the Weather Channel, and the experts at University College London Tropical Storm Risk center all calling for a particularly active Atlantic Hurricane season.

Just 9 days ago, NOAA released their outlook, calling for a Busy 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Officially the Atlantic hurricane seasons doesn't start until June 1st, and we don't usually see our first name storm until around July 9th (see chart below) - but this year we've already seen two named storms in May (Arthur & Bertha), and a third may form before the month is over (see graphic at top of blog).


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

Although preseason storms aren't all that unusual - and this latest system (if it forms) doesn't appear to pose any threat to the United States - a tropical hat-trick in May would set a record. What that portends for the rest of the year is unknown, but this is 2020, and apparently the old rules no longer apply.

I advocate hurricane (and a more general `all hazards') preparedness every year in this blog, and as we discussed two weeks ago (see Why Preparing For This Year's Hurricane Season Will Be `Different'), preparing for - and riding out - any emergency this year will be more difficult due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The State of Florida, which is no stranger to hurricanes, actively promotes disaster preparedness, and every year designates one week in late May - early June as a state tax holiday for emergency supplies.

While the worst hurricanes usually occur in latter half of the season (Aug-Sept-Oct) we have seen some June storms of note, including Alma in 1966 and Agnes in 1972 and 1957's infamous Category 3 Audrey, which claimed 550 lives after it made landfall in eastern Texas and western Louisiana.

June climatology suggests most June storms will form in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, or along the southeastern coast of the United States.

While these storm are apt to be less mature, and generally less destructive, than the long-lived Cape Verde storms of August and September, they usually spin up and threaten the coast with far less advance warning.

To help you get ready, below is a list of this month's hurricane preparedness blogs: