Friday, July 31, 2020

CDC FluView: Novel A/H3N2v Case Reported In Hawaii


CREDIT CDC

#15,393


For the past decade, during the summer months, we are on watch for reports of novel swine flu infections in humans, which are usually associated with county or state fair attendance or the raising of pigs.  

Since 2005, over 465 human infections (H1N1v, H1N2v or H3N2v) have been documented in the United States, with over 300 of those reported in 2012. 

Surveillance for these types of viruses is extremely limited, and it is likely far more cases occur than are reported.  Earlier this year, in WHO: Influenza A(H1N2) variant virus – Brazil we looked at a recent case reported from South America, and in mid July the WHO reported on a case in Germany. 

This summer, with agricultural fairs shuttered, we've not seen any U.S. cases.  That is, until today, as the CDC reports on a H3N2v infection in a child living in Hawaii.  Of note this case does not appear to have had direct contact with swine, and an epidemiological investigation is ongoing.  

Novel Influenza A Virus

One human infection with a novel influenza A virus was reported by Hawaii. This person was infected with an influenza A(H3N2) variant (A(H3N2)v) virus. The patient is a child < 18 years of age, was not hospitalized, and has recovered from their illness. While no exposure to swine has been reported to date, an investigation is ongoing into the source of the patient’s infection. This is the first influenza A(H3N2)v virus infection detected in the United States since 2018.

Influenza viruses that circulate in swine are called swine influenza viruses when isolated from swine, but are called variant viruses when isolated from humans. Seasonal influenza viruses that circulate worldwide in the human population have important antigenic and genetic differences from influenza viruses that circulate in swine.

Early identification and investigation of human infections with novel influenza A viruses are critical so that the risk of infection can be more fully understood and appropriate public health measures can be taken. Additional information on influenza in swine, variant influenza infection in humans, and strategies to interact safely with swine can be found at http://www.cdc.gov/flu/swineflu/index.htm.

Additional information regarding human infections with novel influenza A viruses can be found at http://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/Novel_Influenza.html.

While most swine variant infections don't appear to transmit well in humans, the CDC's IRAT (Influenza Risk Assessment Tool) lists 3 North American swine viruses as having some pandemic potential (2 added in 2019).

H1N2 variant [A/California/62/2018]  Jul   2019  5.8  5.7 Moderate
H3N2 variant [A/Ohio/13/2017]          Jul   2019  6.6  5.8 Moderate
H3N2 variant [A/Indiana/08/2011]      Dec 2012   6.0  4.5 Moderate

And we follow a number of other swine variants around the world with similar potential.  Recently China's EA H1N1 `G4' virus has garnered a lot of attention (see ECDC Risk Assessment: Eurasian avian-like A(H1N1) swine influenza viruses), as have other swine around the globe.




And as we've discussed many times before (see Are Influenza Pandemic Viruses Members Of An Exclusive Club?) - most swine influenza viruses are either H1, H2, or H3 - giving them a distinct advantage, as those are the only influenza subtypes known to have sparked a human pandemic in the last 130 years. 

So far, the good news is that most swine variant viruses haven't become biologically `fit' enough spark a pandemic. In order to be successful, they need to be able to replicate and transmit on par with already circulating human flu viruses.  

But of course, we saw exactly that happen in 2009 with a swine variant H1N1, and so we watch these sporadic species jumps with considerable interest. 

Hurricane Isaias Headed For Bahamas & Threatens East Coast Of United States




#15,392

Since coming off the coast of Hispaniola last night (former) Tropical Storm Isaias has strengthened into a CAT 1 hurricane, and is now bearing down on the Southern Bahamas.  While their remains some uncertainty in its track over the next 48 hours, the east coast of Florida is within the forecast cone, as do other states from Georgia to New England further out in time. 

From this morning's 8 am intermediate advisory from the National Hurricane Center:

TCPAT4

BULLETIN
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SQUALLS LASHING THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 73.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has been discontinued. 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system.  Additional watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida peninsula later today.  The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic will likely be discontinued later this morning.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
 
This morning's key messages from the NHC follow:




While not currently forecast to become a major hurricane, the waters over which Isaias will travel are extraordinarily warm, and that can help strengthen or sustain a hurricane's power.  Winds may  approach CAT 2 status later today. 
 
If you live anywhere near the projected path of this storm, now is the time to make sure all of our plans and preparations are in order. 

While this blog, and many other internet sources (I follow Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, and Mike's Weather page), will cover this year's hurricane season. your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. 
These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.
If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.

For some recent blogs on preparing for hurricanes  you may wish to revisit:


HK: Carrie Lam Invokes Emergency Powers To Postpone Election Until 2021 Over `Virus Concerns'




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Although it is a genuine concern that Hong Kong has seen a dramatic rise in COVID-19 cases the past three weeks, their daily numbers and cumulative case counts would still be the envy of most of other cities of similar size around the globe. 
As I wrote on Wednesday, in Hong Kong Exceeds 3,000 Cases - Hospitals Increasingly Under Stress, there have been rumors that Hong Kong's Executive Administrator Carrie Lam would cancel or postpone local elections - scheduled for September 6th - if their 3rd wave wasn't brought under control. 
While technically not yet a fait accompli - as some legal issues must be ironed out by the National People’s Congress Standing Committee - today's announcement is being widely denounced as a move to prevent pro-democracy candidates from gaining a majority following this summer's imposition of a controversial new security law by Beijing.

You can find more details on this breaking story in the South China Morning Post. 

Politics
  • National People’s Congress Standing Committee to make a decision on the outstanding legal and constitutional issues over pushing vote back one year
  • Opposition camp, which saw 12 hopefuls disqualified on Thursday, earlier warned of constitutional crisis if public’s voice not heard
Tony Cheung, Natalie Wong and Kimmy Chung
Published: 12:38pm, 31 Jul, 2020


         (Continue . . . )





JAMA PEDS: Nasopharyngeal Viral RNA Higher In Young Children Than Adults


Credit Wikipedia


#15,390

If there is one universal takeaway from our COVID-19 pandemic, it is that that early assumptions and  initial impressions regarding an emerging virus are often wrong.  A partial list assumed `facts' about the COVID-19 pandemic virus that have changed significantly over the past 6 months includes:
Naturally, our view of this (or any other) virus evolves over time as new evidence is uncovered.  Many of the early assumptions on COVID-19 were based on what we already knew about influenza, SARS, MERS-COV, and the 4 hCoVs that cause the common `cold'.  

There still remain a number of large gaps in our understanding of SARS-COV-2, and how it spreads in the community.  The impact of ventilation systems and air conditioners remains controversial, as does how much of a factor aerosol transmission is in this pandemic. 

But perhaps the greatest concern, with many schools set to open in a matter of weeks,  is the role children may play in the spread of the virus. 

The vast majority of children appear to experience mild illness - if they are symptomatic at all - although we've seen hundreds of cases of  Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) reported in the United States and around the world. 

Recent seroprevalence studies have shown that children and adolescents are infected far more often than previously appreciated - raising concerns that children may be silent spreaders of the virus - and could infect teachers and other school workers, along with bringing the virus home. 

Unknown until now, however, has been whether mildly or moderately ill children shed significant quantities of the virus. 

In an attempt to answer that question, researchers at Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children’s Hospital of Chicago measured the amount of viral load in the noses of 145 mildly to moderately ill COVID-19 patients, ranging in age from under 1 month to over 65 years of age.  

What they found was that children under the age of 5 often had 5 to 10 times more virus in their nasopharynx than older children and adults.  While this doesn't speak directly to transmissibility, it suggests children may be much better spreaders than previously though.

We've two links.  First, to the research letter published yesterday in JAMA Pediatrics, followed by a press release from the Children's Hospital of Chicago.  
Research Letter
July 30, 2020

Taylor Heald-Sargent, MD, PhD1; William J. Muller, MD, PhD1,2; Xiaotian Zheng, MD, PhD1,2; et al
          (Excerpt)
Our analyses suggest
Thus, young children can potentially be important drivers of SARS-CoV-2 spread in the general population,
          (Continue . . . .)



July 30, 2020 

Findings important to nationwide conversations on reopening schools and daycare

A study from Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children’s Hospital of Chicago discovered that children younger than 5 years with mild to moderate COVID-19 have much higher levels of genetic material for the virus in the nose compared to older children and adults. Findings, published in JAMA Pediatrics, point to the possibility that the youngest children transmit the virus as much as other age groups. The ability of younger children to spread COVID-19 may have been under-recognized given the rapid and sustained closure of schools and daycare during the pandemic.

“We found that children under 5 with COVID-19 have a higher viral load than older children and adults, which may suggest greater transmission, as we see with respiratory syncytial virus, also known as RSV,” says lead author Taylor Heald-Sargent, MD, PhD, pediatric infectious diseases specialist at Lurie Children’s and Assistant Professor of Pediatrics at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine. “This has important public health implications, especially during discussions on the safety of reopening schools and daycare.”

Dr. Heald-Sargent and colleagues analyzed 145 cases of mild to moderate COVID-19 illness within the first week of symptom onset. They compared the viral load in three age groups – children younger than 5 years, children 5-17 years and adults 18-65 years.

“Our study was not designed to prove that younger children spread COVID-19 as much as adults, but it is a possibility,” says Dr. Heald-Sargent. “We need to take that into account in efforts to reduce transmission as we continue to learn more about this virus.”

 
These findings fall short of being a slam dunk, as the number of samples collected was relatively small, and they only measured the level of viral RNA - not infectious virus - in the subject's nasopharynx. But their findings are suggestive enough to warrant caution as schools attempt to re-open across the nation next month.  
I fully appreciate the need for scientific evidence upon which to make decisions. And that gathering and analyzing that evidence takes time. 
But as we've waited for answers, we adopted far too cavalier of an attitude about this pandemic - assuming for convenience sake the `best case' scenario whenever possible - instead of considering less sanguine possibilities.   

And so far, that doesn't seem to be working out too well for us. 

Thursday, July 30, 2020

NHC: An Uncertain T.S. Isaias & Its COVID Testing Impacts


#15,389

For the past few days the National Hurricane Center has been tracking a large, diffuse area of disturbed weather as it approached the Lesser Antilles.  Overnight, as it approached Puerto Rico, this system coalesced into the 9th tropical storm of 2020; Isaias. 

While the above graphic (5am NHC) shows Isaias brushing the east coast of Florida as a tropical storm in 3 or 4 days, the track and ultimate intensity of this storm remains highly uncertain.

In fact, we probably won't have a decent handle on this storm's future for another day or two. It could be shredded by the mountains of Hispaniola, or invigorated by the warm waters north of the islands. Some intensity models even suggest Isaias will become a hurricane.

The National Hurricane Center's 5am Discussion addresses these unknowns.
The intensity forecast is quite tricky.  In the short term, Isaias is expected to move across Hispaniola, as the storm's interaction with the mountainous island should cause some weakening and disruption to the circulation.  However, as mentioned before, the models suggest that a new center could form, and the environmental conditions would support gradual intensification.  
The intensity models have been trending higher, and the official  forecast is nudged upward accordingly, now showing a peak  intensity of 60 kt when the storm is near the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Coast.  It should be noted that there are models that show hurricane strength near the U.S. but, given the large amount of uncertainty, it is preferred to stay on the conservative side for now. We should have a better idea of how strong Isaias will become near the U.S. after reconnaissance aircraft sample the storm and after it passes Hispaniola later today.
 
Isaias may very well stay off shore all the way up the east coast- or even fizzle out over the next 48 hours - but interests from South Florida to the mid-Atlantic states should carefully monitor its progress.  

As we've discussed often since mid-May (see Why Preparing For This Year's Hurricane Season Will Be `Different'), dealing with any sort of natural disaster in the midst of a pandemic immediately becomes more difficult.   
 
And it works both ways - hurricanes can impede the ability to deal with our pandemic - as illustrated by this press release issued late yesterday by the Florida Division of Emergency Management, which announces the temporary closure of State Run COVID-19 testing sites, starting today at 5pm. 

Today, the Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) announced that all state-supported drive-thru and walk-up COVID-19 testing sites will temporarily close at 5 p.m. on Thursday, July 30, in anticipation of impacts from Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

Testing sites are closing out of an abundance of caution to keep individuals operating and attending the sites safe. All sites have free standing structures including tents and other equipment, which cannot withstand tropical storm force winds, and could cause damage to people and property if not secured.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to impact Florida with heavy rains and strong winds arriving to South Florida as early as Friday. The sites will remain closed until they are safe to reopen, with all sites anticipated to be reopened at the latest by 8 a.m., Wednesday, August 5. 
 

This interruption in testing comes as Florida announced 9,446 new cases and their highest one-day COVID death toll (n=216) yesterday. Given we are only 1/3rd of the way through the Atlantic Hurricane season - and Aug-Sept-Oct are historically the busiest months - this will likely not be Florida's last tropical threat of 2020.  

Regardless of what Isaias does over the next few days, this year - perhaps more than ever before - people who live in `hurricane country' need to make their hurricane plan, and acquire any needed disaster supplies, well in the advance of any approaching storm.

While store shelves are reasonably well-stocked again, the inevitable last-minute surge of people going out and queuing up to buy hurricane supplies greatly increases the risks of disease transmission. So too would the reliance on going to a community emergency shelter during a storm. 
While some people may find themselves with no better options, those that can make other arrangements should do so. This is one of the big reasons why I promote the idea of having, and being, a `Disaster Buddy'. 
The CDC offers the following advice if you must evacuate due to a hurricane while COVID-19 continues to circulate. 


Emergency managers, shelter managers, and public health professionals are taking measures to reduce the possible spread of COVID-19 among people who seek safety in a disaster shelter during severe weather events.

Here are some tips to help you prepare and lower the risk of infection while staying safe in a shelter.
Prepare to shelter
  • If you may need to evacuate, prepare a “go kit” with
  • Know a safe place to shelter and have several ways to receive weather alerts, such as National Weather Service
  • Find out if your local public shelter is open, in case you need to evacuate your home and go there. Your shelter location may be different this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Follow guidance from your local public health or emergency management officials on when and where to shelter.
  • Make a plan and prepare a disaster kit for your pets. Find out if your disaster shelter will accept pets. Typically, when shelters accommodate pets, the pets are housed in a separate area from people.
  • Follow safety precautions when using transportation to evacuate. If you have to travel away from your community to evacuate, follow safety precautions for travelers to protect yourself and others from COVID-19.
Protect yourself and others while in a public shelte
  • Practice social distancing. Stay at least 6 feet from other people outside of your household.
  • Follow CDC COVID-19 preventive actionswash your hands often, cover coughs and sneezes, and follow shelter policies for wearing cloth face coverings. Avoid sharing food and drink with anyone if possible.
  • Follow disaster shelter policies and procedures designed to protect everyone in the shelter, especially those who are at higher risk for severe illness from COVID-19, including
  • Avoid touching high-touch surfaces, such as handrails, as much as possible.
  • Keep your living area in the shelter
  • If you feel sick when you arrive at the shelter or start to feel sick while sheltering, tell shelter staff immediately.
 
You'll find even more advice from the CDC at Hurricanes and COVID-19

While all of this advice is hurricane centric, much of it would apply to any other natural disaster (wildfires, floods, earthquakes, etc.) that has the potential to force evacuations. 

It is also worth noting that any emergency relief response may be hampered by our ongoing pandemic as well.  It may take longer to get the power restored, or see store shelves restocked, than after previous storms.  

All reasons why, if you aren't already prepared for a disaster - and able to deal with a potentially prolonged recovery - now is the time to act.   You need to ask yourself . . . . 
  • Do you have an emergency plan and a first aid kit? 
  • Is your pantry lean, or can you and your family get by
  • Do you have at least a week's worth of potable water stored?  
  • Can you stay cool in the summer, and warm in the winter, and cook if the power is out for days or weeks?  
  • Do you have battery operated lights, radio & cell phone charger?
  • Do you have a disaster buddy? 
If not, you've got some work to do. 

Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Hong Kong Exceeds 3,000 Cases - Hospitals Increasingly Under Stress


#13,388

For the eighth day in a row Hong Kong is reporting more than 100 new COVID-19 cases (n=118), surpassing the 3,000 benchmark.  In just the past 3 weeks, their case count has more than doubled, hospitalizations have increased 5-fold, and the number of deaths has more than tripled. 
Despite this dramatic rise, Hong Kong did a remarkable keeping a lid on COVID-19 for nearly six months, and had dampened down local transmission to the point that in May they were able to reopens schools and most businesses. 
But by early July cracks were beginning to show, as imported cases repeatedly reintroduced the virus into the city. On July 10th, in Hong Kong Closing Schools Again As Local COVID Cases Jump, we saw Hong Kong begin to ratchet down again. 

Yesterday Hong Kong's Hospital Authority announced new measures to try to free up hospital isolation beds as the case counts continue to rise.


July 28, 2020

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The Hospital Authority said that in view of the rapid increase in new diseases and insufficient beds, some confirmed patients are still waiting to be admitted. The authorities arrange for those who are more stable to stay at home or in quarantine facilities, and they will be notified as soon as possible when they have a bed.

The Chief Administrative Manager (Patient Safety and Risk Management) of the Hospital Authority, He Wanxia, ​​said at a briefing today that the supply of isolation beds has been under pressure recently, and the authorities have tried their best to arrange for some patients to be transferred to second-line isolation beds and community isolation in Lei Yue Mun Park and Resort Facilities to free up the first-line isolation beds for the more severely ill.

As of today, 230 patients have been transferred to the second-line isolation ward, and more than 100 patients in stable conditions have been transferred to the community isolation facilities in Lei Yue Mun Park and Resort.

He Wanxia also said that the Hospital Authority has recently introduced antibody testing in its laboratories, and it is hoped that it can better understand the patient's recovery progress and infectiousness. After some patients recover, the authorities will make appropriate arrangements to free up hospital beds to accept other patients.
Also yesterday, Hong Kong City Administrator Carrie Lam issued a statement that Hong Kong was on ". . . verge of a large-scale community outbreak, which may lead to a collapse of our hospital system and cost lives, especially of the elderly" (see BBC Coronavirus: Hong Kong on verge of 'large-scale' outbreak, says Carrie Lam).

Meanwhile - in what would be a blow to Hong Kong's democratic movement - local public broadcaster RTHK is reporting that (according to unnamed sources) Hong Kong's government is considering postponing September's local elections until next year. 

2020-07-29 HKT 13:52
  
Sources have told RTHK that the government is studying the possibility of postponing the Legislative Council election for a year, with little hope that the Covid-19 outbreak will be brought under control by September.


A month ago Hong Kong was being hailed as a poster child for successfully controlling COVID-19 while they re-opened schools, businesses, and reduced social distancing requirements.  While that reputation is slipping, Hong Kong is still only reporting about 1/10th (per capita) the number of cases being reported right now in the United States.  

Aggressive contact tracing and isolation - combined with enhanced social distancing and universal masking - are likely still viable options to bring this outbreak under control.  But how quickly that can happen - and at what cost - remain open questions. 

Unfortunately, Hong Kong isn't alone in this backsliding.  After months without any locally acquired cases Vietnam is now rushing to contain an outbreak in Da Nang (see VOA After Nearly Erasing COVID-19, Vietnam Grapples with a Spike), Australia has seen a resurgence in COVID cases (see chart below), and Germany is struggling as well.


All reminders that yesterday's successes against COVID-19 can be fleeting, and that the virus can quickly take advantage of any lapses in vigilance. 

Tuesday, July 28, 2020

JAMA: Two Studies Linking SARS-CoV-2 Infection To Cardiac Injury





#15,387


While there is a certain amount of comfort to be taken from data that suggests COVID-19 is a relatively low mortality - high morbidity pandemic - and that nearly 99% of all those infected survive - evidence of serious post-infection sequelae from SARS-CoV-2 infection continues to mount. 

Very early on COVID-19 was linked to prolonged hospitalizations, and there are numerous anecdotal reports of patients continuing to suffer from fatigue, shortness of breath, chest pains, cognitive issues, and other debilitating symptoms weeks or even months after being discharged. 

Three weeks ago, Dr. Anthony Fauci expressed concerns that many COVID patients are suffering from a post-viral syndrome - similar to ME/CFS - which has disabled and traumatized well over a million Americans over the past 3 decades (see NIH About CFS/ME). 

How prevalent this post-viral syndrome might be among COVID survivors may not be fully appreciated for years, but it has the potential to have a significant impact.

Somewhat easier to identify are those COVID survivors who have had strokes, blood clots, heart attacks, or have suffered permanent lung damage during the course of their illness. 

Some past studies on these adverse outcomes include:


Last month JAMA published an original investigation which found a 3-fold increase in out-of-hospital cardiac arrests in New York City during the peak of their COVID-19 epidemic, finding:
From March 1 to April 25, 2020, New York City, New York (NYC), reported 17 118 COVID-19–related deaths. On April 6, 2020, out-of-hospital cardiac arrests peaked at 305 cases, nearly a 10-fold increase from the prior year.
Admittedly many of these cases likely already had underlying cardiac problems, but COVID-19 appears to have a direct, and often serious impact on cardiac function.  In May, the American Heart Association's journal Circulation published:
(Excerpt)
Among patients with COVID-19, there is a high prevalence of cardiovascular disease, and >7% of patients experience myocardial injury from the infection (22% of critically ill patients). Although angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 serves as the portal for infection, the role of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers requires further investigation. COVID-19 poses a challenge for heart transplantation, affecting donor selection, immunosuppression, and posttransplant management. There are a number of promising therapies under active investigation to treat and prevent COVID-19.
Added to this, follow-up exams and cohort studies are starting to show hidden organ damage among COVID survivors - even among relatively young patients who experienced only mild or moderate illness - raising concerns of increased disability and/or shortened lifespans among some survivors. 

Yesterday JAMA published two on-point studies, both of which raise serious questions over the long-term impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection on the cardiovascular system. 

The first provides the results of 39 autopsies on COVID cases, that showed even when pneumonia is the presumed cause of death - and even without overt histopathic evidence of acute myocarditis - the heart often shows a high viral load of SARS-COV-2. 

July 27, 2020

Author Affiliations Article Information
JAMA Cardiol. Published online July 27, 2020. doi:10.1001/jamacardio.2020.3551


Key Points

Question Can severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) be documented in cardiac tissue of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) autopsy cases?

Findings In this cohort study of 39 autopsy cases of patients with COVID-19, cardiac infection with SARS-CoV-2 was found to be frequent but not associated with myocarditislike influx of inflammatory cells into the myocardium.

Meaning Among individuals with cardiac infection, overt myocarditis was not observed in the acute phase, but the long-term consequences of this cardiac infection needs to be studied.

The second, and arguably more worrisome study, finds a remarkable incidence of cardiac injury and myocardial inflammation among a relatively young cohort (avg. age 49 & without pre-existing cardiac hx) of COVID patients who mainly recovered at home but continued to experience a variety of symptoms following their illness. 
-Original Investigation
July 27, 2020

Valentina O. Puntmann, MD, PhD1; M. Ludovica Carerj, MD1,2; Imke Wieters, MD3; et alMasia Fahim3; Christophe Arendt, MD1,4; Jedrzej Hoffmann, MD1,5; Anastasia Shchendrygina, MD, PhD1,6; Felicitas Escher, MD7; Mariuca Vasa-Nicotera, MD5; Andreas M. Zeiher, MD5; Maria Vehreschild, MD3; Eike Nagel, MD1
Author Affiliations Article Information
JAMA Cardiol. Published online July 27, 2020. doi:10.1001/jamacardio.2020.3557

Key Points

Question What are the cardiovascular effects in unselected patients with recent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)?

Findings In this cohort study including 100 patients recently recovered from COVID-19 identified from a COVID-19 test center, cardiac magnetic resonance imaging revealed cardiac involvement in 78 patients (78%) and ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60 patients (60%), which was independent of preexisting conditions, severity and overall course of the acute illness, and the time from the original diagnosis.

Meaning These findings indicate the need for ongoing investigation of the long-term cardiovascular consequences of COVID-19.
Both studies can be read in their entirety at the provided links, along with an accompanying editorial entitled:
July 27, 2020

Clyde W. Yancy, MD, MSc1,2; Gregg C. Fonarow, MD3,4
 
JAMA Cardiol. Published online July 27, 2020. doi:10.1001/jamacardio.2020.3575
While it isn't known whether the cardiac changes observed in these patients (including reduced left ventricular injection fraction) are permanent, the fear of cardiologists is they could presage a new wave of pandemic-related heart failure down the road. 

And it is worth noting we've seen similar concerns raised over post-infection neurological manifestations (see Are we facing a crashing wave of neuropsychiatric sequelae of COVID-19? Neuropsychiatric symptoms and potential immunologic mechanisms by Emily A. Troyer, Jordan N. Kohn, and Suzi Hong).

COVID-19 isn't the first viral or bacterial infection with a relatively low CFR, that can produce delayed, and often surprising, sequelae. 
  • Last month, in The Lancet: COVID-19: Can We Learn From Encephalitis Lethargica?, we looked at the decade-epidemic of neurological disease that began around the time of the 1918 pandemic, and persisted until the late 1920s.  While its cause remains unknown, a viral infection is strongly suspected. 
  • Vector-borne viruses like West Nile, Chikungunya, and Zika can sometimes lead to devastating  neuroinvasive complications (such as meningitis or encephalitis) or paralysis (Guillain Barre Syndrome).
  • Even relatively mild non-polio enteroviruses - like EV-71 and EV-D68 - can lead to Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFM), particularly in children and adolescents. 
  • And while rare, untreated strep throat can lead to Rheumatic fever and heart damage, Glomerulonephritis (kidney damage), and Sydenham Chorea (neurological damage).
The tendency from the start of this pandemic has been to underestimate the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and to arbitrarily divide outcomes into just two categories; deaths and recoveries.  

As a result - even as the evidence to the contrary continues to pour in - many people point to the statistics and dismiss COVID-19 as only a threat to the elderly and infirmed, and that for everyone else, it isn't any worse than the `flu'. 

Although most people still appear to recover from COVID-19 without medical intervention and without lasting damage, some (as yet, unquantified) percentage may find themselves saddled with serious, long-term health consequences as a result their SARS-COV-2 infection. 

While that burden may not become fully apparent for years, it is something that individuals, and society as a whole, will have to deal with long after the pandemic has ended.  

Monday, July 27, 2020

COVID: HK New Daily Record, Vietnam Evacuates 80K From Da Nang



 #15,386

Today Hong Kong's CHP posted 145 additional COVID-19 cases - another new 24 hour record - while their government announced even greater social distancing restrictions in hopes of curbing this 3rd wave of infections. 

Considering their proximity to Mainland China, and the early arrival of the SARS-CoV-2 virus to the SAR, Hong Kong has done a remarkable job keeping COVID-19 at bay.

Less than 3 weeks ago this city of 7 million had seen fewer than 1470 cases - with more than half of those imported - and only 7 deaths. Since then, the number of cases has nearly doubled, hospitalized cases have jumped 6-fold, and deaths have nearly tripled

Over the past couple of weeks Hong Kong has shuttered schools again, banned indoor dining in restaurants, closed some non-essential government offices, and banned public gatherings of more than 4 people. 

Today's South China Morning Post reports that the government has doubled down on these restrictions, in hopes of reversing their current trend.  

  • The new restrictions, which include compulsory mask-wearing outside, will take effect on Wednesday and last for at least one week
  • The measures come as the city records two more coronavirus deaths, a 76-year-old woman and a 92-year-old man

Meanwhile in Vietnam, which until two days ago had gone more than 3 months without reporting a locally acquired case, authorities have announced their intention to evacuate 80,000 (apparently domestic) tourists from the resort city of Da Nang after three people there tested positive for the virus (see Reuters Report below).
Vietnam to evacuate 80,000 people from Danang after virus outbreak
Those who are evacuated will be required to go into home quarantine for 14 days. Meanwhile, local residents have been ordered to observe heightened social distancing and to wear masks.

Source: Xinhua| 2020-07-27 18:16:49| Editor: huaxia

HANOI, July 27 (Xinhua) -- Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc agreed to implement a social distancing order in Vietnam's central city of Da Nang starting from Tuesday following three new community COVID-19 cases reported in the city in the past weekend, before which Vietnam has seen no new community cases in over three months, Vietnam News Agency reported on Monday.

The decision was made at a government meeting on combating COVID-19 held on Monday morning.

Social distancing measures in Da Nang will include wearing face masks in public places and on public transport, and temporarily halting the operation of non-essential businesses and passenger transport activities, the news agency reported.

People traveling to Vietnam's capital city Hanoi, southern Ho Chi Minh City and other localities from Da Nang will be tested and quarantined if necessary, according to the report.

The prime minister also ordered the Ministry of Health to strengthen resources to support Da Nang in testing and treatment, said the news agency.

Vietnam has confirmed four COVID-19 cases in the community in Da Nang and its central Quang Ngai province as of Monday morning, according to the health ministry. Enditem

Meanwhile local directives are flowing out of their Ministry of Health's website at breakneck speed. Today 4 advisories have been issued:

 
 




The countries that have managed to keep COVID-19 under control are those who are not only proactive in their measures, but those that react swiftly at the first hint of local transmission.  SARS-CoV-2 has proved repeatedly it needs little more than a tiny lapse in vigilance in order to thrive. 

Vietnam, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and to a lesser extent Japan have all shown that - while it isn't easy - it is possible to keep community transmission low, and to limit the number of deaths.  

But as long as the virus spreads uncontrolled anywhere in the world, no country - no matter how successful they've been in containing the virus - can afford to let down their guard.

(AAIC®) 2020 Presentation : Flu & Pneumonia Shots Appear To Reduce Dementia Risk In Elderly











#15,385

Last week, in The `Other' Vaccine Challenge This Fall, we looked at some of the anticipated logistical  problems in this fall's flu vaccination campaign - which like everything else these days - must be conducted against the backdrop of our ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.  

No one really knows what to expect with our fall and winter flu season, although there are naturally concerns about dealing with two simultaneous epidemics. 

A bad influenza season could make diagnosing COVID cases more difficult, and at the same time substantially add to the pandemic's burden on hospital resources. But curiously, very little flu has been reported anywhere in the world since April, even in the Southern Hemisphere where it is normally at its seasonal peak.


This drop off is likely due to the social distancing and PPE measures (face covers, hand hygiene, etc.)  being taken against COVID-19, aided and abetted by a reallocation of surveillance resources to the pandemic. 

Whether this trend will continue into the Northern Hemisphere's flu season is anyone's guess. 

Two months ago, in COVID-19, The Next Flu Season, And The Temporary Immunity Hypothesis, we looked at the complex and poorly understood dynamics of co-circulating respiratory viruses, and the possibility that getting infected with one virus might (temporarily) reduce your chances of being infected by another. 

The reality is, we can't wait to see whether flu returns this fall or winter to begin to give out flu shots. The vaccine takes a couple of weeks to take effect, and we can't vaccinate 150 million people on short notice, particularly in the midst of a COVID-19 pandemic. 

So this year, like every year, we will go into a flu season of unknown intensity.  And we won't know how effective this year's flu vaccine will be until well into the flu season.  

None of this is to argue against getting the flu shot.  I will get it again this year (my 16th year running), and while getting the flu vaccine isn't an ironclad guarantee of avoiding infection, most years it provides moderately good protection against circulating influenza viruses.

And according to the CDC, for those who are vaccinated - but still get the flu -  they are less likely to have a severe bout.

But increasingly influenza and other respiratory infections have also been linked to a significant seasonal increase in heart attacks and strokes.
https://www.ices.on.ca/~/media/Images/News_releases/2018/KwongFluHeartAttack.ashx?la=en-CA
Despite some less-than-stellar influenza Vaccine Efficiency (VE) numbers - particularly among those in the highest risk groups (65+) - we've seen evidence that vaccination does reduce complications like heart attacks and strokes.
To this growing list we can add a new report to be presented at this week's Alzheimer's Association International Conference® (AAIC®) 2020, linking the receipt of the flu and pneumonia vaccines in those over the age of 65 to a reduced risk of Alzheimer's and dementia.

First a link and excerpt from the AAIC press release (and abstract). Follow it to read it in its entirety, I'll have a postscript when you return.

FROM THE ALZHEIMER’S ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE 2020 

CHICAGO, JULY 27, 2020 ​ — ​ ​ Flu (influenza) and pneumonia vaccinations are associated with reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease, according to new research reported at the ​ Alzheimer’s Association International Conference​ ® ​ ​ (AAIC®) 2020.

Three research studies reported at AAIC 2020 suggest:
● At least one flu vaccination was associated with a 17% reduction in Alzheimer’s incidence. More frequent flu vaccination was associated with another 13% reduction in Alzheimer’s incidence.
● Vaccination against pneumonia between ages 65 and 75 reduced Alzheimer’s risk by up to 40% depending on individual genes.
● Individuals with dementia have a higher risk of dying (6-fold) after infections than those without dementia (3-fold).
“With the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccines are at the forefront of public health discussions. It is important to explore their benefit in not only protecting against viral or bacterial infection but also improving long-term health outcomes,” said Maria C. Carrillo, Ph.D., Alzheimer’s Association chief science officer.
         (Continue . . . )

The paper's abstract can be read at the following link:
 
Admittedly, this is an observational study, which limits how much we can infer from the results. But it aligns generally with what a number of other studies have suggested; that severe viral infections can lead to other, often neurological, sequelae. 

Some past blogs on neurological diseases tentatively linked to viral infections include:

The Lancet: COVID-19: Can We Learn From Encephalitis Lethargica?

Neuroinfluenza: A Review Of Recently Published Studies

JNeurosci: Another Study On The Neurocognitive Impact Of Influenza Infection


The exact mechanisms behind these neurological manifestations are unknown, as seasonal flu viruses are generally not regarded as being neurotropic. But some researchers have suggested that these neurological symptoms may be due to neuroinflammation induced by the host's immune response.

While we are still short of having absolute proof that flu vaccines provide tangible protection against developing Alzheimer's or Parkinson's disease - or can greatly reduce the odds of having a post-infection heart attack or stroke - the evidence continues to mount suggesting it is at least plausible. 

Which is why I'll be rolling up my sleeve again this fall. I'll happily settle for some degree of short-term protection against influenza, and consider any potential long-term benefits a bonus. 

Because now that I'm in that dreaded `high risk' age group, I can use any advantage I can get.