Note: This is day 30 of National Preparedness Month. Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NatlPrep #BeReady or #PrepMonth hashtags.
This month, as part of NPM20, I’ll be rerunning some updated preparedness essays, along with some new ones.
#15,478
Thirty-nine weeks ago, in the wee hours of the morning of December 31st, I awoke (at 2 am) and found a Skype message from Sharon Sanders of FluTrackers alerting me to several strange, and admittedly worrisome media reports from China of an unidentified respiratory outbreak in Wuhan City.
Within a few short weeks we would see this event escalate into The Most Predicted Global Crisis of the 21st Century; a severe pandemic.
In last October's Inaugural Global Health Security Index, the United States - followed by the UK, The Netherlands, Australia, and Canada - were judged to be the best prepared to deal with a severe pandemic. A least when graded on the curve.
Eleven years ago, in Caught With Our Masks Down, I wrote that the demand for PPEs during a serious pandemic would far exceed the available supply. At one time the HHS estimated the nation would need 30 billion masks (27 billion surgical, 5 Billion N95) to deal with a major pandemic (see Time Magazine A New Pandemic Fear: A Shortage of Surgical Masks).But despite two decades of warnings (see WHO: On The Inevitability Of The Next Pandemic), and several close calls (H7N9 in 2017, H1N1 in 2009, SARS in 2003, etc.), over the past 9 months the world has proved itself to be spectacularly unprepared to deal with a fast-moving, viral threat.
The good news is we were afforded more than a decade to prepare; to procure the basic PPEs needed protect our healthcare workers, first responders, and the general public.
And nine months into COVID-19, healthcare workers are still scrambling for PPEs, and the public are relegated to using a smorgasbord of less effective face covers.
As challenging as COVID-19 has been, it is far from the `worst-case' pandemic scenario. It is a relatively low-mortality pandemic, killing something less than 1% of symptomatic cases. Among hospitalized cases, MERS-CoV has an apparent CFR of 35%, Nipah over 40% and some strains of avian flu are even higher.
As we now understand all too well - a pandemic isn't just a public health crisis - it can quickly become a global economic disaster, and can pose a genuine national security threat. The full economic and societal impact of COVID-19 probably won't be known for a decade or more.
All of this was foretold a hundred times or more, in exercises, books, and reports - including:
- Fifteen years ago Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of CIDRAP, presciently likened a severe pandemic to an 18-month global blizzard, where nearly everything is shut down. Many will find themselves without a paycheck, either due to their refusal to work and risk exposure, or because their jobs are simply no longer available (see Baby, it's Cold Outside).
- In 2008, in Lloyd's: A Pandemic Is Inevitable and in The Lloyds Report: A Closer Look, we looked at their predictions for the next pandemic.
- In December of 2012 the U.S. National Intelligence Council released a report called "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" that tried to anticipate the global shifts that will likely occur over the next two decades (see Black Swan Events). Number one on their hit parade? A severe pandemic.
- In 2014, the U.S. Director of National Intelligence declared An Influenza Pandemic As A National Security Threat, writing: No one can predict which pathogen will be the next to spread to humans, or when or where such a development will occur, but humans will continue to be vulnerable to pandemics, most of which will probably originate in animals.
- The following year, in The Blue Ribbon Study Panel Report on Biodefense, we examined an 84-page Bipartisan Report of The Blue Ribbon Study Panel On Biodefense that looked at our nation’s vulnerability to a biological attack, an accidental release, or naturally occurring pandemic with a highly pathogenic biological agent.
- In 2018 (see CLADE X Exercise) and again in 2019 (see JHCHS #EVENT 201) held major tabletop exercises envisioning plausible pandemic scenarios.
And yet, despite these warnings, governments and leaders of the world kicked the can down the road each year, pledging to address the deficits in our pandemic preparedness `next year', never truly believing the next pandemic would fall on their watch.
Sadly, we are probably no better prepared to deal with a great (8.0+) earthquake on the San Andreas, Cascadia, or New Madrid fault lines, or a `Carrington level' CME from the sun, than we are for the next severe pandemic.
Eight years ago, the earth narrowly missed being hit by a massive CME (see NASA: The Solar Super Storm Of 2012) that could have destroyed a large portion of our electrical grid.
Since then, scientists have discovered that these severe solar storms happen far more often than previously believed (See Destructive Solar Storms Usually Hit Earth Every 25 Years or So, Say Scientists).
The earth in general, and the United States in particular, have been in an earthquake (and volcanic eruption) `drought' for the past century (see #NatlPrep: Half Of All Americans Need An Earthquake Plan). But all droughts end eventually (see Dr. Lucy Jones: `Imagine America Without Los Angeles’).
While we can't predict what the next national, regional, or global crisis will be, it is a pretty safe bet that it will come sooner rather than later.
There are a lot of things we can do as individuals (see #NatlPrep: Prolonged Grid Down Preparedness), or as business owners (see SBA's Disaster Preparedness and Recovery Plan), to prepare for the next great disaster or crisis - but what is truly needed is a commitment by governments around the globe to prioritize emergency preparedness.
Not just talk the talk, but to walk the walk.
Here in the United States I'd love to see a Department of National Resilience (hopefully with a better acronym than DNR) - with the funding, and foresight, to adequately prepare local communities to deal with whatever future threats may come. One that actively involves local officials, schools, businesses, civic groups, and individuals - not just another Federal alphabet agency filled with career bureaucrats.
I'm sure there are thousands of retired EMTs, firefighters, and nurses that would make excellent instructors and plenty of others who would love an opportunity to work, and to make a real difference to their community.With millions of people out of work, this could even become a jobs program, benefiting both individuals and their communities.
The next big crisis is just around the corner.
