#16,280
In too many places around the world, COVID Cases are going in the wrong direction, suggesting that recent predictions that the pandemic may be `winding down' are premature. Earlier today we looked at Singapore's new daily record, and a week ago, new COVID restrictions in Russia, and a couple of days ago this chart (below) showing the rising rates in Eastern Europe.
Credit Our World In Data
Joining these growing ranks, Denmark's SSI (Staten Serum Institut) today announced a 73% jump in COVID cases over the past week. Denmark - much like Singapore - has a high vaccination rate.
First the statement from the SSI, then I'll have a brief postscript.
The number of new covid-19 cases increased by 73% from week 41 to 42
The Covid-19 epidemic is currently rising sharply across the country. This is shown by the trend report from the Statens Serum Institut. The report will be published every week in the future.Last edited October 28, 2021
It's going the wrong way with the covid-19 epidemic right now. The daily number of new infections with covid-19 has increased significantly since mid-September.
The trend is confirmed in the new trend report from the Statens Serum Institut (SSI). The report, which will be published weekly in the future, shows the trend for covid-19 and other respiratory infections.
The new report shows that the number of new covid-19 cases increased by 73% from week 41 to week 42.
See the new trend report here
The incidence is rising
The increase over the autumn holidays means that the incidence has increased to 148 covid-19 cases per 100,000 Danes. At the same time, the proportion of positive tests has grown from 1.6% to 2.2%, despite the fact that test activity has increased.
"The epidemic is currently growing rapidly across the country. This is most pronounced in the Capital Region, where the positive percentage is also significantly higher than in the other regions, ”says ward doctor Rebecca Legarth from SSI.
She continues:
At the same time, the number of newly admitted covid-19 patients in hospitals is increasing. However, it is important to note that the number of new admissions per 100,000 is significantly higher among unvaccinated than among vaccinated, where the numbers in week 42 were 7 and 3 hospitalized per. 100,000. ”
Multiple breakthrough infections
In total, the number of new admissions with covid-19 increased to 246 in week 42 against 163 the week before.
Among the inpatients is also a large proportion of the so-called breakthrough infections. That is, people who have been diagnosed with covid-19, even though they are fully vaccinated.
For the 20-59-year-olds, the proportion of inpatients with breakthrough infection increased from 21% in week 40 to 29% in week 42. For the 60+ -year-olds, the corresponding proportion in week 42 was up to 84%.
RS virus and influenza
The trend report also shows the trend for other respiratory infections such as RS virus.
Here is the incidence per. 100,000 inhabitants dropped from 20 in week 37 to 7 in week 42. And the number of new admissions has shrunk from 285 to 154 in the same period.
Finally, the report shows that the incidence of influenza is still very low in Denmark. Here, the incidence per. 100,000 inhabitants all the way down to 0.26 in week 42.
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See the new trend report here
Although there has been some media speculation that a new variant (possibly AY.4.2) may be behind these recent surges, I haven't seen any solid evidence to that effect. Hopefully we'll get better data soon.
Breakthrough infections - particularly among the elderly - are cited as a major factor in Denmark's surge, and that may simply come down to the vaccine's waning effectiveness over time (see Denmark SSI: Increased Breakthrough Infections With Delta Variant).
Whatever the root cause, the abandonment of NPIs (face masks, social distancing, etc.) by many over the summer has certainly exacerbated the situation. Denmark, Singapore, and the UK all decided to rollback most COVID restrictions over the summer, and all three are now seeing large increases in cases.
Even though COVID cases are currently well off their highs of late summer in the United States, we saw over 78,000 cases reported yesterday and nearly 1,600 deaths.
Recent surges in Denmark, Singapore, Russia, and the UK should remind us that what goes down, can go up again. Sometimes dramatically.
