#17,200
With a raging - but poorly reported - COVID epidemic surging in China, many countries are once again considering implementing limited travel restrictions. Since the details of the epidemic - and viral sequences - are being withheld by the Chinese government, we'd never know if a new, more dangerous, variant were to emerge until it showed up outside of China.
Media reports yesterday from Italy indicating that nearly half of all of the passengers on two flights arriving from China tested positive, combined with the upcoming Chinese New Year's, have only escalated international concerns.
Yesterday the United States Department of State issued a travel advisory for all arrivals from China, reinstating the requirement for a negative COVID test within 2 days of departure (see below).
The text of the health alert from the U.S. Embassy follows.
By U.S. MISSION CHINA11 MINUTE READDECEMBER 29, 2022Event: On January 5, at 12:01 ET, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will require a negative COVID-19 test result (taken within two days of departure) or proof of recovery from the virus (within the last 90 days) for all travelers aged two years and older to the United States on flights originating from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau. This requirement also applies to individuals boarding a flight to the United States from Incheon International Airport, Vancouver International Airport, or Toronto Pearson International Airport who have been in the PRC, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong or Macau, within the past ten days.This public health policy is due to the surge in COVID-19 cases in the PRC and the risk of the emergence of a new viral variant. Monitor the websites for the U.S. Mission China, the U.S. Consulate General Hong Kong & Macau , and the CDC’s Travel Health Information page for the latest COVID 19- travel guidance.These requirements apply to all air passengers regardless of vaccination status or nationality. This will also apply to persons traveling from the PRC via third country transit and to passengers connecting through the United States onward to further destinations. Passengers must show one of the following to the airline or risk being denied boarding:
- A paper or digital copy of negative COVID-19 viral test results taken within two days of boarding. Check the CDC website for a list of authorized viral tests that meet the testing requirement, or
- Documentation of recovery for passengers who tested positive more than 10 days and fewer than 90 days before boarding a flight to the United States. See CDC page for details .
Only in very limited cases will an exception to these testing requirements be granted when emergency travel must occur to protect someone’s life or health from a serious threat or danger. Contact the CDC for criteria on exceptions.If you are uncertain whether this requirement applies to you and you have recently traveled to the PRC, including Hong Kong SAR or Macau SAR, you are encouraged to take a COVID-19 viral test within two days of boarding a flight to the United States.Actions to Take:
- Consult the CDC website for the most up-to-date information on pre-departure COVID-19 testing requirements.
- Check with your airline or travel operators regarding testing requirements including language requirements for test results or doctor’s notes, and for any updated information about your travel plans and/or restrictions, including potential COVID-19 vaccine or testing requirements for countries you are transiting through.
- Be aware that foreign countries might have their own travel restrictions and COVID-19 testing, vaccine, or quarantine requirements. Please visit the Embassy/Consulate webpages for each country you are traveling to or transiting through for additional information.
- Visit the COVID-19 crisis page on travel.state.gov for country-specific information related to COVID-19.
- For information on what you can do to reduce your risk of contracting COVID-19, please see the CDC’s latest recommendations .(Continue . . . )
- Visit the U.S. Embassy Beijing webpage on COVID-19 for information on conditions in The People’s Republic of China. COVID-19 Information – U.S. Embassy & Consulates in China (usembassy-china.org.cn). Visit the U.S. Consulate General Hong Kong & Macau’s webpage on Covid-19 for information on Hong Kong and Macau.
As a practical matter, if (and its still an `if') a new, more dangerous variant were to appear in China, these testing requirements would only increase the time - by days, or perhaps weeks - before it arrived via a more circuitous route.
While that may not seem like much of an advantage, it could be enough time for many more people to get the updated booster shots, and that could save lives. It might also give us an opportunity to better gauge its threat, and take any other precautionary actions.
While the most immediate concern is COVID, we have very little visibility on what is happening in China with other infectious disease threats, including avian flu. Yesterday's announcement by the WHO of the first fatal case of H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b infection was on a case in Guangxi Province, China that occurred over 90 days ago.
China, which is dealing with a variety of internal problems (see China At The Pandemic Crossroads) is often slow to report avian flu cases - or any other `bad news' for that matter - which is why `no news' doesn't always mean `good news' when it comes to Mainland China.China's reporting on H5N6, H9N2, H3N8, and other avian flu subtypes has declined in recent months as well. Whether that represents a genuine drop in cases, or a lack of surveillance and/or reporting is unknown.
Of course, China is far from alone in keeping outbreaks secret (see Flying Blind In The Viral Storm), while many other countries simply don't have the resources to adequately detect and report these types of events.
The bottom line is, we'd better be prepared for surprises in 2023. Because our ability to see the next threat coming is severely limited.
