#17,865
For many Asian cultures it is a long held tradition that people return home to attend a reunion dinner with their families on the eve of the lunar New Year, which this year falls on February 10th.
In Korea it is called Seollal.
In Vietnam, it is called Tết Nguyên Đán or Feast of the First Morning. Tết for short.
In China, it is called Chinese New Year or Lunar New Year, or Chunyun; The Spring Festival.
But by whatever name, the lunar new year is the most important holiday in all of Asia. And this annual return to one’s home traditionally sparks the largest human migration on the planet. At least, it did until the emergence of COVID in late 2019.
Exactly what has happened in China over the past 4 years remains shrouded in mystery.
Massive lockdowns and strict Zero-COVID policies undoubtedly helped limit deaths from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, but the official number at the end of 3 years (early 12/22) was only 5242 COVID deaths in a country of 1.4 billion people, and few took that number seriously.
After their Zero-COVID policy collapsed in December 2022, China stopped their (already highly limited) reporting on COVID infections, hospitalizations, and deaths (see China: NHC Will No Longer Release Daily COVID Figures).
As an additional filter, China created a very narrow definition for what qualified as a `COVID-related death' (see China: NHC - Only Respiratory Failure Due to COVID to Be Counted As A COVID Death).
Despite persistent (albeit, unverifiable) reports of crematoriums running 24/7, hospitals overrun, and estimates of hundreds of millions of infections over over January and February - officially - COVID was mild and deaths were relatively few. (roughly 80K).
In sharp contrast:
- Last August, in JAMA Open: Excess All-Cause Mortality in China After Ending the Zero COVID Policy. we saw an estimate of roughly 1.87 million excess deaths in China in the two months following the collapse of Zero COVID.
- A couple of weeks later, in EID Journal: Estimate of COVID-19 Deaths, China, December 2022–February 2023, we saw a slightly lower estimate ( 1.41 million deaths over 60 days). But that was still more than 17-fold higher than what was `officially' reported by China (n=82,000).
We get suspiciously little information on MERS-CoV out of the Middle East, very little surveillance and reporting on avian flu from Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, and 90% of countries no longer regularly report on COVID cases, hospitalizations, or deaths.
But failing to mention 1 to 2 million COVID deaths over 60 days is a pretty big omission, even for China. External estimates aside, I doubt we'll ever know exactly what happened after the lifting of Zero-COVID in China.
Over the next 30 days China will enter the first Post-COVID emergency (see WHO Statement To End PHEIC Status For COVID-19) Lunar New Year (February 10th - 25th) celebration and extended Spring Festival.
While no one is expecting a repeat of last winter's disaster, the Spring Travel season is an ideal venue to spread respiratory illnesses, and for the past several months China has been dealing with a potent mixture of COVID, influenza A & B, RSV, and Mycoplasma Pneumonia (see Taiwan CDC & ECDC Statements Regarding Respiratory Outbreak In China).
Yesterday China's NHC (National Health Commission) held a lengthy press conference (translated excerpts below) on the upcoming holiday.While a lot of attention was focused on TCM (Traditional Chinese Medicine), generalized statements about healthcare delivery, treacherous winter weather, and sports injuries, they also briefly warn that the JN.1 variant of COVID is rising, and `. . . that large-scale movements and gatherings of people may accelerate the spread of respiratory diseases.'
The amount of time actually spent on COVID, and other seasonal respiratory viruses, was surprisingly small given their potential impact. I'll have a brief postscript after the break.
Transcript of the press conference of the National Health Commission on January 14, 2024
Release time: 2024-01-14 Source: Publicity Department
Time : January 14 , 2024
Venue : Press Conference Hall, Building 2, National Health Commission
Moderator: Mi Feng, Spokesperson and Deputy Director of the Publicity Department of the National Health Commission
Guest : Wang Dayan, Director of the National Influenza Center, Institute of Viral Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Liu Qingquan, President of Beijing Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine
Wang Guiqiang, Director of the Department of Infectious Diseases, Peking University First Hospital
Wang Jianquan, Director of the Department of Sports Medicine, Peking University Third Hospital
From the opening statement by Mi Feng:
Since New Year's Day, the number of fever outpatient consultations in medical institutions across the country has shown a fluctuating downward trend. The current respiratory diseases are still dominated by influenza, new coronavirus infection is at a low level, and medical services are generally stable and orderly.
As the winter and Spring Festival holidays approach, large-scale movements and gatherings of people may accelerate the spread of respiratory diseases. It is necessary to do a good job in monitoring and early warning, and strengthen the management of key places and prevention and control of key links. Provide health consultation and referral guidance and other services in a timely manner to key groups such as the elderly, pregnant women, children, and patients with chronic basic diseases, and provide convenient conditions for them to vaccinate.
It is necessary to actively allocate medical resources, optimize the medical treatment process, and ensure the supply of medical supplies. Medical resources should be reserved for common sports injuries, accident injuries, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular emergencies, etc. during holidays to ensure that patients receive timely and effective treatment.
(SNIP)
Macau Monthly reporter :
We have noticed that influenza B infections have been on the rise recently. What is the difference between influenza A and influenza B? How to tell? Can patients who have just been infected with influenza A be infected with influenza B again? Thanks.
Wang Dayan, director of the National Influenza Center of the Institute of Viral Diseases of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention :
Thank you for your question. Seasonal influenza includes influenza A H1N1, influenza A H3N2 subtypes, and influenza B. my country's southern provinces have entered this influenza epidemic season since early October, and northern provinces since late October.
In the early stage , the H3N2 subtype influenza virus was the main circulating strain. The proportion of influenza B viruses in southern provinces has continued to rise to 36.8% in the past three weeks, and the proportion of influenza B viruses in northern provinces has continued to rise to 57.7% in the past five weeks. In some provinces, the proportion of influenza B viruses has continued to rise to 36.8%. Influenza viruses account for more than influenza A viruses.
(SNIP)
Daily Economic News reporter :Not surprisingly (since these events are carefully managed) there were no questions asked about HPAI H5N1, HPAI H5N6, LPAI H9N2, H3N8 or any other novel flu viruses reported from China in recent years.
We have noticed that the new coronavirus variant JN.1 is spreading rapidly around the world. Recently, the United States, Canada and other countries have ushered in new infection peaks after the holidays. What is the current situation of new coronavirus infections in China? Is there a significant increase after the New Year's Day holiday? Thanks.
Wang Dayan, director of the National Influenza Center of the Institute of Viral Diseases of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention :
Thank you for your question. This is also a question that everyone is more concerned about. Recently, data from the multi-channel monitoring system shows that after the New Year's Day holiday, the national COVID-19 epidemic is still at a low level, with the positive rate of COVID-19 testing in sentinel hospitals remaining below 1%, and the proportion of JN.1 mutant strains showing an upward trend.
Experts believe that this winter and next spring, my country will continue to see a variety of respiratory pathogens alternate or co-circulate, and influenza viruses will still be dominant in the short term. Affected by multiple factors such as the continued import of JN.1 mutant strains, the gradual decrease in domestic influenza activity, and the decline in population immunity, the new coronavirus infection epidemic may rebound this month, and the JN.1 mutant strain will most likely develop into a dominant epidemic strain in China. Thanks.
While we get very little in the way of real-time information about avian flu, COVID, or other emerging disease threats from the Chinese government, we continue to see excellent academic papers on these topics from Chinese researchers who routinely express growing concern over these zoonotic threats.
A few recently reviewed papers include:
Preprint: Association of Poultry Vaccination with the Interspecies Transmission and Molecular Evolution of H5 Subtype Avian Influenza Virus
