Tuesday, January 30, 2024

Updating the Caspian Sea Seal Die Off


#17,886

In early December of 2022 there were reports in the Russian media of the discovery of a large number (700of dead seals near on the coast of the the Caspian Sea near Dagestan (see map above). 

Within a few days another report estimated 2,500 seal deaths, and discussed the possibility that they had died from oxygen starvation due to gas (methane) emissions due to seismic activity.  

A similar event two years earlier in that region had been attributed to that scenario. 

A month later, in Russia: Mass Mortality Event (Seals) In Caspian Sea Linked To Avian Flu, we looked at a (translated) press release from the Dagestan State University which stated that (as yet unsubtyped) avian influenza A virus was detected in the carcasses of these seals, although it was too soon to say whether the virus was the actual cause of death.

In early February Russia's Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) announced they were unable to confirm those test results, and had asked the Dagestan State University to provide biological samples of what they tested. 

Since then, Russian media has been filled with conflicting reports and opinion pieces on the cause of this mass mortality event.

Some blame illegal and/or poorly run landfills, runoff from which have allegedly polluted the waters of the Caspian sea, while others have suggested gas and oil pollution or military operations are to blame. 

As Caspian seals are considered endangered, this has become a bit of a political `hot potato'. 

Again, last December we began to see reports of die offs of seals in the Caspian Sea due to `an unknown disease' (see sample below).

Seals are again dying en masse on the Turkmen coast of the Caspian Sea

December 14, 2023

On the Turkmen coast of the Caspian Sea, mass deaths of seals from an unknown disease are again observed. Experts have caught dozens of dead seals in recent days. The Turkmen authorities ordered the military to shoot seals swimming to the shore. A Radio Azatlyk correspondent reported this on December 12.

“Navy specialists are destroying seal carcasses caught at sea. Serving sailors are also involved in this,” said one of the local specialists in an anonymous conversation with our correspondent.
About 10 days ago the COMPASS Foundation - which was founded in 2022 with the stated aim to `become the single coordinator of environmental activities in Russia' - published a press release where they describe a huge drop in the population of Caspian Seals in 2023, and once again indicate that avian flu may be the cause. 

19.01.2024 

As part of the program, from April to December 2023, 6 expeditions were carried out to areas of seasonal concentration and feeding of seals.

During the expeditions, leading Russian scientists collected information about the size, age and sex structure of the seal population. The survey showed a catastrophically low density of seals in their seasonal places and a complete absence in the island rookeries in the spring, which is uncharacteristic during this period.

For objective assessment and monitoring, 4 stationary camera traps were installed in different parts of Maly Zhemchuzhny Island. According to materials from August to October, only one individual was recorded on the island.

The census results showed that the average age of dead individuals was 7.7 years - this indicates an increase in the mortality of young individuals, including pregnant females.

In December, information appeared in the media about a new wave of dumping of dead seal carcasses. For a prompt response, the working group, led by Foundation expert Vladimir Lifantiev, with the support of the oil service company NaftaGaz, went on an expedition to the Caspian coast and the island of Chechen.

Candidate of Biological Sciences, Associate Professor at the Institute of Ecology and Sustainable Development of DSU Alimurad Gadzhiev, while exploring the coast, said:
The population is not just in a critical condition, it has already passed that red line, after which it is unlikely to be restored in the near future.

The main version of the death of Caspian seals, according to the scientific group, is their infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza.
The Foundation took the initiative to include the seal in the list of rare and endangered objects of the animal world that require priority measures for restoration and reintroduction. Corresponding proposals have been sent to the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources, as well as to Rosprirodnadzor.

We've certainly seen massive die offs of seals elsewhere around the world due to avian flu (see a few examples below), making it the logical suspect.  But so far, we've seen very little concrete information on this ongoing event in the Caspian sea. 
SGSSI Statement: HPAI Confirmed in Mammals in Sub-Antarctica For The First Time

Chile: SERNAPESCA Updates Marine Mammal Deaths From Avian Influenza

Denmark: SSI Reports H5N1 In Dead Seals

CDC EID Journal: HPAI A(H5N1) Virus Outbreak in New England Seals, United States
Beyond the horrendous loss of so many mammals - and its unpredictable knock-on impacts to the ecosystem - each mammalian infection is another opportunity for this avian influenza virus to better adapt to - and potentially transmit among - mammalian hosts.

Six months ago, in Avian Flu's New Normal: When the Extraordinary Becomes Ordinary, I wrote about the numbing effect that comes with the constant barrage of HPAI H5 reports from around the world.

Things that were nearly unthinkable two years ago (e.g. Repeated trans-Atlantic introduction of avian flu from Europe, the proliferation of HPAI H5 across the length of South America, or the repeated spillovers of H5 into mammalian species) have now become commonplace.

Although the future course and impact of HPAI H5 remains unknown, nature's laboratory is open and operating 24/7, which suggests that complacency is a luxury we cannot afford.