#18,730
It is with more than a little PTSD that I post the following 2025 Hurricane season outlook from NOAA, which once again calls for an above-normal hurricane season. Last year, over a 3-week period, my area was impacted by two memorable storms; Helene, followed by Milton (see Signs of Life).
I was lucky. My home survived (with some modest damage), and the flood waters surrounded - but never actually flooded - my home. I had a safe place to evacuate to, thanks to my `disaster buddy', and over a week or so, my power and internet were restored.
For more than 50 million Americans living in and around coastal areas (and millions more in other countries), hurricanes and their byproducts (flooding, tornadoes, lightning) are probably their greatest natural disaster threat.
From Escambia County Hurricane Preparedness Information
While South Florida and the northern Gulf coast are at highest risk, even those areas not shaded in – even hundreds of miles inland – can still feel the effects of a hurricane.
Although the peak of the hurricane season doesn't usually begin until August, June 1st marks the first day of the season (which runs through the end of November), and early season storms are not unheard of. Below are a few notable June Hurricanes, including 1957’s Audrey – a CATEGORY 4 storm.
Excerpts from yesterday's announcement from NOAA follow:
Above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures set the stage
May 22, 2025
NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.
“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.”
“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.”
Factors influencing NOAA’s predictions
The season is expected to be above normal – due to a confluence of factors, including continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. All of these elements tend to favor tropical storm formation.
The high activity era continues in the Atlantic Basin, featuring high-heat content in the ocean and reduced trade winds. The higher-heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption.
This hurricane season also features the potential for a northward shift of the West African monsoon, producing tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms.
“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens."
While this blog, and many other internet sources (I follow Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, and Mike's Weather page), will cover this year's hurricane season. your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.
These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.
