#18,737
Over the past few weeks we've been seeing reports of increasing COVID activity, particularly in Asia, and three days ago we looked at a WHO Risk assessment on a recently emerged variant (see WHO TAG-VE Risk Assessment On COVID VUM (Variant Under Monitoring) NB.1.8.1) that is behind some of this surge.
As we've discussed ad nauseum over the past few years (see here, here, here, here, etc.), 90% of the world's nations no longer report COVID hospitalizations or deaths, making it very difficult to track changes in the evolution and behavior of new variants.
Despite evidence that repeated COVID infections increase the risks of developing `long COVID', and other sequelae (see Brain, Behavior & Immunity: COVID-19 may Enduringly Impact Cognitive Performance and Brain Haemodynamics in Undergraduate Students), governments around the globe have opted to minimize the threat, in order to `move on' from the pandemic.
While the WHO still produces a monthly COVID-19 epidemiological report, today they've published an unusual post-pandemic DON (Disease Outbreak News) update on the global COVID situation.
The rub is, they cite `very limited data' submitted by member countries as preventing them from being able to fully evaluate the impact of this new wave.
Despite these challenges, the WHO states the `global public health risk associated with COVID-19 remains high'.
I've only posted some excerpts from the report, so follow the link to read it in its entirety. I'll have a postscript after the break.
COVID-19 - Global Situation
28 May 2025
Situation at a glance
Since mid-February 2025, according to data available from sentinel sites, global SARS-CoV-2 activity has been increasing, with the test positivity rate reaching 11%, levels that have not been observed since July 2024. This rise is primarily observed in countries in the Eastern Mediterranean, South-East Asia, and Western Pacific regions.
Since early 2025, global SARS-CoV-2 variant trends have slightly shifted. Circulation of LP.8.1 has been declining, and reporting of NB.1.8.1, a Variant Under Monitoring (VUM), is increasing, reaching 10.7% of global sequences reported as of mid-May. Recent increases in SARS-CoV-2 activity are broadly consistent with levels observed during the same period last year, however, there still lacks a clear seasonality in SARS-CoV-2 circulation, and surveillance is limited. Continued monitoring is essential. WHO advises all Member States to continue applying a risk-based, integrated approach to managing COVID-19 as outlined in the Director-General’s Standing Recommendations [1]. As part of comprehensive COVID-19 control programmes, vaccination remains a key intervention for preventing severe disease and death from COVID-19, particularly among at risk groups.
Description of the situation
There has been an increase in SARS-CoV-2 activity globally, based on SARS-CoV-2 data reported to the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS) from sentinel surveillance sites. As of 11 May 2025, the test positivity rate is 11% across 73 reporting countries, areas and territories. This level matches the peak observed in July 2024 (12% from 99 countries) and marks a rise from 2% reported by 110 countries back in mid-February 2025 (Figure 1). The increase in test positivity rate is mainly being driven by countries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, the South-East Asia Region, and the Western Pacific Region.
Countries in the African Region, European Region, and the Region of the Americas are currently reporting low levels of SARS-CoV-2 activity with percent positivity from sentinel or systematic virological surveillance sites ranging from 2% to 3%. However, some areas—particularly in the Caribbean and Andean subregions in the Region of the Americas showed increasing trends of SARS-CoV-2 test positivity as of 11 May. Publicly available wastewater monitoring data from countries in the European Region and the Northern America subregion remain low and, at present, do not indicate any upward trend in SARS-CoV-2 activity as of 11 May 2025.
The reporting of COVID-19 associated hospitalizations, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions, and deaths is very limited from the countries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, the South-East Asia Region, and the Western Pacific Region and does not allow for evaluation of the impact on health systems by WHO.
(SNIP)
WHO risk assessment
As per the latest WHO global risk assessment, covering the period July-December 2024, the global public health risk associated with COVID-19 remains high. There has been evidence of decreasing impact on human health throughout 2023 and 2024 compared to 2020-2023, driven mainly by: 1) high levels of population immunity, achieved through infection, vaccination, or both; 2) similar virulence of currently circulating JN.1 sublineages of the SARS-CoV-2 virus as compared with previously circulating Omicron sublineages; and 3) the availability of diagnostic tests and improved clinical case management.
SARS-CoV-2 circulation nevertheless continues at considerable levels in many areas, as indicated in regional trends, without any established seasonality and with unpredictable evolutionary patterns. WHO produces global COVID-19 risk assessments every six months; the global risk assessment covering the period January-June 2025 is currently under development.
WHO continues to monitor emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants and undertakes risk evaluation for designated variants of interest (VOI) and VUMs with the support of the Technical Advisory Group of Virus Evolution (TAG-VE). Evaluation of the currently predominant VUM, LP.8.1, and the most recently designated VUM, NB.1.8.1, suggests no increased public health risk posed by these variants compared to other circulating variants.
To permit robust COVID-19 risk assessment and management, WHO reiterates its recommendations to Member States to continue to monitor and report SARS-CoV-2 activity and burden, public health and healthcare system impacts of COVID-19, strengthen genomic sequencing capacity and reporting, in particular information on SARS-CoV-2 variants [6], promptly and transparently to support global public health efforts.
While predicting what COVID will do next is a mug's game, we do know that COVID `immunity' - whether acquired from vaccines or infection - wanes over time, and vaccine uptake has continued to fall both here in the United States, and in many countries around the globe.
A summer surge is certainly possible. And even if this latest variant proves to be no more virulent than previous Omicron strains, repeated infections are problematic.
Which is why I got my 6-month COVID booster in April, and why I'll continue to wear an N95 mask in crowded, indoor, venues. Neither guarantee I'll stay infection free, but they do improve my chances.
