#18,832
While its been a relatively quiet opening two months of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, we have seen 4 named storms, and we are still more than a month from the historical peak of the season (Sept 10th).
Early season storms tend to form in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean, but as ocean temperatures rise late in summer, and winds aloft become more favorable, hurricanes tend to form farther to the east, giving them more time grow before encountering land (see below).
Last May we looked at the pre-season forecast from NOAA which predicted an above-average season, and this past week they updated their forecast.
Prediction remains on track for above-normal Atlantic hurricane season
NOAA urges advanced preparations
August 7, 2025 —
As the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season enters its historical peak, atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to favor an above-normal season as NOAA first predicted in May.
Forecasters from NOAA’s National Weather Service updated the number of expected named storms to 13-18 (with winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 5-9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 2-5 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).
The adjusted ranges are for the entire season from June 1 though November 30, and are inclusive of the four named tropical storms that have already formed. In the Atlantic basin, a typical hurricane season will yield 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three become major hurricanes.
The likelihood of above-normal activity is 50%, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 15% chance of a below-normal season. This updated prediction is similar to the initial outlook issued in May.
As we've discussed often in the past, you don't have to live right on the coast to be affected by a land falling hurricane. High winds, inland flooding, and tornadoes can occur hundreds of miles inland.
From Escambia County Hurricane Preparedness Information
While South Florida and the northern Gulf coast are at highest risk, even those areas not shaded in – even hundreds of miles inland – can still feel the effects of a hurricane.
As we discussed last May in National Hurricane Preparedness Week 2025, the time to prepare is now, before the next storm forms. This from NOAA's Hurricane Preparedness Week Social Media Plan.
#HurricaneStrong #HurricanePrep
Please help the NWS spread the word about Hurricane Preparedness Week (May 4-May 10, 2025) on social media! Everyone is welcome to use the text and images provided below to help the NWS build a Weather-Ready Nation.
While there are a number of excellent internet resources for hurricane information (I personally follow Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, and Mike's Weather page), there are also a lot of slickly produced clickbait YouTube sites that post highly questionable or irresponsible content.
As always, Caveat Lector.
Your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.
For some of my past blogs on emergency preparedness, including how to set up a small solar power system, you may wish to revisit:If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov, and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.
