A Robust Start To Avian Flu Season In Europe & North America

 

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Although we've already seen an early start to avian flu here in the United States (see Avian Flu's Unusually Active September in the United States), reports from Canada and Europe over the past couple of weeks suggest they are seeing a similar pattern. 

As the chart above illustrates, since the emergence of the clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 virus in 2020-2021, the amount of bird flu activity has varied considerably from year-to-year, with 2023-2024 showing the lowest peaks. 

Hopes that trend might continue were dashed, however, as the last 12 months (2024-2025) provided a new surge, with ample detections continuing over the summer. As in North America, Europe is now reporting an early and vigorous start to this fall's avian flu season. 

Exactly what might be driving this fall' surge in detections isn't clear, as genotype information has been slow to emerge (see Nature: Lengthy Delays in H5N1 Genome Submissions to GISAID).

While we've seen no updates from Canada in nearly a week on the situation in Alberta (see Canada: Alberta Petting Zoo Closed For HPAI H5 - Recent Visitors Asked to Monitor For Symptoms), the CFIA has added 8 new outbreaks (across 3 Provinces) in the past 5 days, making 22 since the 1st of the month. 

Despite the government shutdown, the USDA has been updating their avian flu in poultry page (although, reports may be slower to be added).  As the following chart suggests, avian flu season is well underway here as well. 

Across the pond, the UK has announced 8 outbreaks in poultry since Oct 1st, with 3 in the past 72 hours.

In Germany, hundreds of cranes have reportedly died from HPAI, a number of  farms have been affected, and yesterday the FLI issued the following short statement:

Avian influenza: FLI updates answers to frequently asked questions

10/24/2025

The rapidly developing avian influenza outbreak in Germany is generating numerous inquiries at the Friedrich Loeffler Institute ( FLI ). The updated answers to frequently asked questions ( FAQs ) explain, among other things, why cranes are a severely affected wild bird species this fall.

The FLI appeals to the public in affected areas to stay away from wild birds and not to disturb them. Please report dead wild birds to the relevant veterinary authorities.

FAQ Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (Fowl Flu), as of October 24, 2025 ( PDF )

Germany's most recent update (Risk assessment for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5 ( HPAI H5) Clade 2.3.4.4B, as of 20 October 2025 ( PDF )) cites:

Situation in Germany: Between September 1 and October 20, 2025, 15 HPAIV H5N1 outbreaks were detected in poultry in seven federal states in Germany (Fig. 1). Chickens, geese, ducks, and turkeys were affected, with production in fattening, breeding, and laying hen farms. The largest affected farm was a broiler parent flock in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania with over 35,000 birds.

This past week France raised their avian flu risk to the their highest level, and there are a growing number of reports from other European nations, including Belgium, Italy, and Spain. 

While I've no desire to try to track every outbreak across Europe or North America, it is important to note trends.  And so far, avian flu activity this fall has been robust. 

Although the risks to the general public are considered low right now, those who raise backyard poultry are presumed to be at greater risk of infection. 

Credit CDC

A couple of weeks ago, in UF/IFAS Extension: What Backyard Flock Owners Need to Know about Bird Flu (Influenza H5N1), we looked at some expert advice on protecting your flock - and your health - from avian flu. 

While it is too soon to know how this year's avian flu season will stack up against past years, it has started 30 to 60 days earlier than usual - and in recent years HPAI has surprised us repeatedly as it has expanded both its host and geographic range. 

Stay tuned, and fasten your seat belts. It could be a bumpy ride.