Reminder: The Great Shakeout is set for This Week (Oct 15th)

 

#19,369

Not quite 3 years ago the USGS unveiled a new seismic risk map (see below), increasing the percentage of Americans at risk of experiencing a damaging earthquake to nearly 75% (roughly 240 million people).

Globally, large swaths of southern and central Europe and Asia - and significant portions of South America, Africa, Oceania and Canada - are at risk as well.

GEM_Global-Seismic-Hazard   DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20208536 (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)

Publication:

Pagani M, Garcia-Pelaez J, Gee R, et al. (2020) The 2018 version of the Global Earthquake Model: Hazard component, Earthquake Spectra, vol. 36, no. 1_suppl, 2020, pp. 226–251. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/8755293020931866

Data:

Johnson, K., Bayliss, K., Villani, M., Brooks, C., Styron, R., Simionato, M., Chen, Y., Rood, A., & Pagani, M. (2026). Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Seismic Hazard Map (v2026.1). [Data set] Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/ zenodo.8409646

While yearly totals fluctuate, on average the USGS expects approximately 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 -7.9 per year - and one of magnitude 8.0 or greater.

Over the past 4 months we've seen 7 Magnitude 7.0+ quakes, but that came after a nearly 2 month lull. Despite the internet clickbait hype machine, we are still well within expected norms.

But the fact remains, billions of people around the world live in active seismic zones, and knowing what to do during - and after - an earthquake can be lifesaving information. 

Eighteen years ago (Nov 2008) Shakeout.org held the first their first event - dubbed The Great Southern California ShakeOut - which involved over five million participants across the region. 

Since then, that event has grown - first nationally - and then internationally, and now it encompasses numerous states, territories, and a number of other countries.

This year's International ShakeOut Day is October 15, when millions of people worldwide will participate in earthquake drills at work, school, or home!

At 10:15 a.m. (local time) on 10/15, you can join millions of people across the world practicing earthquake safety.

While we encourage participation with everyone, you can register your ShakeOut drill for any day of the year, and drill at a time of your choice. You can also include people in multiple locations through video conferencing.

While I don't have to worry much about earthquakes where I live (I make up for it with hurricanes. sinkholes, and alligators), I put high value in being prepared for all natural disasters, and I strongly urge others to do so as well.

If you live in, work in, or ever plan to visit a seismically active area, I strongly would urge you, your family, and your employees take part in these yearly drills.

Once the shaking stops, you'll have to find ways to cope with the aftermath.

While the government will send help, you could find yourself pretty much on your own for several days and living in less than comfortable conditions for weeks (see #NatlPrep: 75% of Americans At Risk Of Experiencing A Damaging Earthquake).

For starters - and as a bare minimum - every household should have a disaster plan, a good first aid kit (and the knowledge to use it), an emergency battery operated NWS weather radio, and emergency supplies to last at least 72 hours during a disaster.

While 72 hours is an admirable start, I wouldn't feel comfortable stopping there. Here in the United States many agencies and organizations recommend that households work towards having a 10-to-14 day supply of food, water, and emergency supplies on hand.

In addition to earthquakes, there are nearly a dozen `very high risk' volcanoes in the continental US (4 in Washington, 4 in Oregon & 3 in California), along dozens of `lesser' threats. While earthquake damage is generally localized, volcanic eruptions can affect property and populations thousands of miles away.

Over the years we've looked at a number of scientific or review articles on earthquake risks, including: 

(JGR) Cajon Pass and the Southern San Andreas Fault System: Earthquake Cycle Stress Accumulation and Present-Day Loading

Dr. Lucy Jones: `Imagine America Without Los Angeles’
California Quakes : Concrete Concerns

OSU: Pragmatic Action - Not Fatalism - In Order To Survive The `Big One’

Estimating The Economic Impact Of A San Andreas Quake

#NPM26: Making Preparedness a Priority

 

Note: This is the 29th day of National Preparedness Month. Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NatlPrep #BeReady or #PrepMonth hashtags

.

This month, as part of NPM26, I’ll be rerunning some updated preparedness essays, along with some new ones.

#19,353

Over the summer - and most particularly the past 4 weeks -  we've looked at a number of personal preparedness scenarios (see links below), covering topics such as earthquakes, severe weather, prolonged power outages, and even pandemics. 

#NPM26: It's a 12 Volt Life

#Natlprep 2026: Pandemic Planning At Both Ends of the Spectrum

#NPM26: Preparing For An El Niño Winter

#NatlPrep: 75% of Americans At Risk Of Experiencing A Damaging Earthquake

September Is National Preparedness Month (#NPM26)

We've also looked at a number of governmental concerns and/or reports; with an emphasis on this winter's El Niño, an increasingly stressed power grid, risks to the global food supply, and a plethora of other threats. 

California Declares State of Emergency to Bolster Statewide El Niño Preparedness

FAO: Expect The Unexpected - Guidelines on Emergency Response Preparedness in Agriculture in Europe and Central Asia

NERC Reliability Report: Large Computational Load Risks Due to Voltage Sensitivity

UK National Risk Register 2026 - Urges Citizen Preparedness

NERC Issues Level 3 Alert As Grid Faces `Unprecedented Challenges' Due to Surge In Large Power Consumers

 
While I can't tell you what untoward events may happen in the months ahead, or when or where they might occur, it is a pretty safe bet that some - potentially large - number of people will be affected by one or more local or regional disasters. 

How they will cope with whatever comes will depend in large part on how well they've prepared. 

While I'm a huge proponent of having a good first aid kit (or three), emergency power options, and a full pantry, I can think of no prep more valuable than having one or more `disaster or flu' buddies on whom you can rely in an emergency.

Simply put, a network of family, friends, and neighbors to whom you can turn for help in a emergency, who can turn to you for if they need it. My disaster buddy and I have saved each other's bacon more than once. 

Most disasters boil down to unscheduled camping - for days, or sometimes weeks - in your home, in a community shelter, or possibly even in your backyard. So having the right gear - before an emergency arises - can make life far easier.

Every year I publish a long list of preparedness items that I've either bought for myself, or as gifts for other people. While I'll update that list for the holidays, you'll find my most recent list at The Gift of Preparedness 2025.

Since being sick with the flu, of COVID, during an emergency can seriously degrade your ability to cope, I've long recommended staying current with yearly vaccines (see #NatlPrep: Giving Your Preparedness Plan A Shot In The Arm).

Which is why later today I'll be getting both the fall flu and COVID shots from my local pharmacy. I'm also current with my tetanus shot, and pneumonia vaccines. 

Long time readers know I love to tinker with solar panels and emergency power options, and I've put together some low cost systems for myself, and for a couple of friends (see Emergency Solar Power: Revisited).

For as little as $100, you can buy off-the-shelf plug-and-play components to keep phones charged, and a couple of LED lights powered.  Double that, and you can have comms, fans, and an emergency shortwave radio.

My older (circa 2019) basic $200 kit

While solar generators are the preparedness rage, a system capable of running refrigerators, TVs, and other appliances for more than a few hours can run into the thousands of dollars.  For me, that isn't an option. 

In 2024 I described building a rudimentary LiFePo4 power station (see picture below), which packs a whopping 600 Watt/hour capacity. LiFePo4 batteries are lighter than lead/acid, are far less dangerous, and can be charged and discharged (fully) thousands of times.

My system featured dual 12V Car Cigarette Lighter Sockets, 2 USB outlets, and I added a small 110v inverter (which I will probably never use).  I have both a wall charger and a 100 watt solar panel to keep it charged. 

I now have 3 of these battery systems, and 2 solar panels. They won't run my fridge or big-screen TV, but they will keep lights, radios, MP3 player, fans, DVD player, and other creature comforts going for weeks or even months.  

And most importantly, there is enough redundancy built into these systems than if one (or even two) should fail, I'm not left in the dark.  The old prepper's adage, that `one is none, and two is one' applies. 

I've also got 60 gallons of water stored, water filters, a full pantry, a propane stove, and enough books (audio & physical), MP3 radio shows/podcasts, and DVDs to keep me from going stir crazy for months if need be. 

While my investments have been small, they have already paid off, since I've been without power twice in the past 10 years - each time for several days - thanks to Hurricanes Irma (2017) and Helene & Milton (2024).  

The road to preparedness needn't be terribly expensive, but it's a journey you need to start before the next crisis occurs.  

So . . . if a disaster struck your region today, and the power went out, stores closed their doors, and water stopped flowing from your kitchen tap for the next 7 to 14 days . . . do you already have:

• A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
• A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
• Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
• A way to provide light when the grid is down.
• A way to cook safely without electricity
• A way to purify or filter water
• A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
• A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
• An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
• Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
• A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout

If your answer is `no’, then I would suggest the time to start preparing
is now.

EM&I: Limited added benefit of seasonal influenza vaccination before A(H5) vaccination in mice and ferrets challenged with A(H5N1)

 

Credit ACIP/CDC

#19,345

One of the biggest challenges during any future H5Nx pandemic would be the rapid production and timely deployment of a two-dose (given 30 days apart) H5 vaccine to billions of people (see Referral: SCI AM - A Bird Flu Vaccine Might Come Too Late to Save Us from H5N1).  

While it's not a new idea (see 2008's Seasonal Flu Vaccine May Offer Some Protection To H5N1), the notion of using the existing seasonal flu vaccine as either a `stop-gap measure' - or as a `prime-boost' for the first pandemic jab, during the opening months of an H5 pandemic - has persisted. 

An early, encouraging 2010 study in the journal Vaccines (Seasonal influenza vaccine elicits heterosubtypic immunity against H5N1 that can be further boosted by H5N1 vaccination) reported:

Recent findings indicate that seasonal influenza vaccination or infection of healthy humans may contribute to heterosubtypic immunity against new influenza A subtypes, such as H5N1. Here, we investigated whether seasonal influenza vaccination in a mouse model could induce any immunity against the H5N1 subtype.

It could be demonstrated that, largely due to the H1N1 component strain A/NewCaledonia/20/99, parenteral immunization of mice with a trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine elicited heterosubtype H5-reactive antibodies able to confer partial protection against H5N1 influenza virus infection.

Furthermore, the trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine was found to be compatible with a whole virus H5N1 vaccine in a heterologous prime-boost immunization regimen, achieving superior efficacy compared to a single immunization with an equivalent low-dose of the H5N1 vaccine.

More recent evidence remains both mixed and modest - and has often relied on ferret or mouse models (which may not fully apply to humans) -  including:

Nature Comms: Adjuvanted Influenza Vaccination Increases Pre-existing H5N1 Cross-reactive Antibodies

mBio: Low levels of influenza H5N1 HA and NA antibodies in the human population are boosted by seasonal H1N1 infection but not by H3N2 infection or influenza vaccination

EID Journal: Effect of Seasonal Influenza Vaccines on Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Clade 2.3.4.4b Virus Infection in Ferrets

EID Journal: Investigation of Influenza A(H5N1) Virus Neutralization by Quadrivalent Seasonal Vaccines, United Kingdom, 2021–2024

Note: Regardless of whether the seasonal flu vaccine directly protects against H5N1 infection, there are still good reasons to get the jab, prior to - and even during - an H5Nx pandemic.

1. It still may provide some small boost to your immune response.  Neutralizing antibodies aren't the only immune defense against infection. 
2. It could help prevent a co-infection with H5N1 and seasonal flu, which has the potential for being more severe.
3. Co-infections could also help generate a reassorted `hybrid' virus (see Preprint: Intelligent Prediction & Biological Validation of the High Reassortment Potential of Avian H5N1 and Human H3N2 Influenza Viruses).

While it may not be the last word on the topic, today we've a study in EM&I from researchers at the CDC's NCIRD Influenza Division, which frankly, offers little encouragement on the effectiveness of using seasonal flu vaccines as a `prime-boost' for H5N1 vaccines. 

I've only reproduced the abstract and a few excerpts, so follow the link to read the report in its entirety.  I'll have a brief postscript after the break.

Limited added benefit of seasonal influenza vaccination before A(H5) vaccination in mice and ferrets challenged with A(H5N1)

Masato Hatta , Ying Huang , Jeremy A. Duke , Joseph R. Rouse , Chenchen Feng ,
Xudong Lin , show all
Article: 2731495 | Received 29 Jun 2026, Accepted 05 Sep 2026, Published online: 21 Sep 2026
 https://doi.org/10.1080/22221751.2026.2731495

Limited A(H5)-specific vaccine supply is expected early in a potential A(H5N1) pandemic, raising the question of whether licensed seasonal influenza vaccines could enhance protection when administered before A(H5) vaccination. We evaluated this strategy in mouse and ferret models using clade 2.3.4.4b A(H5N1) viruses.

Seasonal influenza vaccination induced antibodies to seasonal haemagglutinins but did not induce detectable antibodies against A(H5) and did not consistently enhance A(H5)-directed antibody responses after A(H5) vaccination.

In lethal challenge studies, seasonal vaccine priming before A(H5) vaccination was associated with improved outcomes compared with A(H5) vaccination alone in one of three mouse experiments, but this effect was not observed in the other two mouse experiments or in ferrets. These findings suggest that seasonal influenza vaccine priming provides limited added benefit to A(H5) vaccine-mediated protection against A(H5N1) under the conditions tested.

(SNIP)

Accordingly, clinical studies are needed to further evaluate the strategy of administering seasonal influenza vaccine prior to A(H5) vaccination. However, such studies would likely rely on immunological endpoints rather than direct assessment of protection. Evidence of cross-reactivity alone should therefore be interpreted cautiously when informing decision-making, as it may not reliably predict protection against severe or lethal A(H5N1) infection.

In the absence of a clear added benefit, prioritizing seasonal influenza vaccination as a priming strategy to enhance protection against A(H5N1) during the early phase of a pandemic may offer limited value, particularly when resources may need to be directed toward A(H5)-specific vaccination and other countermeasures. Continued efforts to improve the development, availability, and deployment of antigenically similar A(H5) vaccines should remain a priority for pandemic preparedness [13,14].

       (Continue . . . )

Although the prospect of using seasonal vaccine as a bridge - or as a primer for a first H5 dose - remains biologically plausible, the evidence of its effectiveness has been both inconsistent and weak. 

Today's CDC study reports that prior seasonal vaccination offered little reproducible improvement over H5 vaccination alone (at least, in mice and ferrets). While disappointing, it is hardly unexpected. 

Which suggests that during the opening months of any novel flu pandemic we will (once again) have to rely on NPIs (Non-pharmaceutical Interventions) like social distancing and face masks - and our limited supply of antivirals -  while a strain-specific vaccine is produced and deployed.

For some specific preparedness advice, you may wish to revisit #Natlprep 2026: Pandemic Planning At Both Ends of the Spectrum. 

#NPM26: It's a 12 Volt Life

CDC Infographic

Note: This is the 20th day of National Preparedness Month. Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NatlPrep #BeReady or #PrepMonth hashtags.

This month, as part of NPM26, I’ll be rerunning some updated preparedness essays, along with some new ones.

#19,341

Most disasters boil down to unscheduled camping - for days, or sometimes weeks - in your home, in a community shelter, or possibly even in your own backyard.

Preparedness can not only make that process possible, it can make it far less miserable as well. 

But, as anyone who has ever tried to buy a loaf of bread or a gallon of milk after a hurricane or blizzard warning has been issued already knows, prepping has to be done well before a disaster looms.

And quite frankly, given the rates of inflation and other global uncertainties, it seems likely that whatever you'd pay today for prep items will be higher in the future.  And that assumes they will still be available. 

If you have unlimited funds, and plenty of room, you can prep in style.  But most people are constrained by limited budgets, and other restraints, and so this list is primarily for them. 

Living in hurricane country, my biggest concerns revolve around prolonged power outages, which also can impact other utilities (including water, sewer, and internet). 

• Following last 2024's one-two punch from Hurricanes Helene & Milton, I got my power back after only 4 days (although internet took a week). Before that, I went nearly a week without power following Irma in 2017, but many people had it far worse (most of Puerto Rico was without power for months after hurricane Maria in 2017).

• Not quite five years ago, in February of 2021, 3 successive winter storms swept across Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma, causing the worst collapse of the Texas energy grid on record (see Texas: The Latest - But Not The Last - Grid Down Crisis), resulting in hundreds of deaths (see City of Austin & Travis County 2021 WINTER STORM URI AFTER-ACTION REVIEW).

• And just last July, the U.S. Department of Energy published a 73-page report that warns that if current schedules for retirement of reliable power generation (especially baseload) continue, without enough firm replacement, the risk of blackouts in 2030 could increase by 100× over current levels.

While those with tens of thousands of dollars to spend can have a whole-house solar system or generator - one capable of running freezers, refrigerators, and air conditioners - even a small budget system can make life without grid power a little more bearable.

My minimum goal is to have enough sustainable power for lights, radio, phone charging, a personal MP3 player, and fans. Trying to run appliances, HVAC, or other high-draw devices is simply beyond my budget (but if you have enough money . . . . it can be done ).

The following is an example of how one can put together a basic plug-and-play mini solar power system for around $100; one that will keep phones, lanterns, and some mini-fans charged and running for days.

While I'm not recommending specific brands or suppliers, these photos are all typical of items I've purchased and used myself. 

This is my `bug out' solar kit; What I would grab if I had to abandon my home - and the bulk of my preps - in a hurry (note: I have 2 rechargeable USB batteries and an MP3 player). It all fits in a tiny duffle bag that weighs less than 5lbs. 

For a bit more money you could go for a slightly bigger solar panel, additional USB battery banks, and maybe a personal MP3 player, walkie-talkies, and an emergency radio.  As the following photo illustrates, this type of modular system can be expanded over time.

The biggest downside to these types of setups is you are limited to USB (typically 5 volt) appliances. Fine for flashlights, phones, and MP3 players, but not nearly as versatile as a 12 volt system. 

For 12v/110v power, you could opt to buy a Jackery, Bluetti, EcoFlow, or similar `Solar Battery' setup, but it would set you back $400 -$1000+ (plus solar panel). And if it breaks, you don't have many options beyond sending it back for repair.

However, if you build your own - and keep a few spare parts on hand - you should be able to to keep it running yourself. (note: If you aren't comfortable working with these types of components, get help from someone who is). 

In 2024 I described building a rudimentary LiFePo4 power station (see picture below), which packed a decent 600 Watt/hour capacity. LiFePo4 batteries are lighter than lead/acid, are far less dangerous, and can be charged and discharged (fully) thousands of times.

My system featured dual 12V Car Cigarette Lighter Sockets (for CPAP, Electric cooler/fridge, or Inverter), 2 USB outlets, and I added a small 110v inverter. It is recharged by a 100 watt solar panel (shown on left). 

After my last hurricane I endeavored to improve my 12-volt battery bank (for build details, see Post-Milton Improvements To My Power Preps)

Weighing in at less than 15 lbs, this 50 amp/hr (600 watt/hour) setup is self contained, with storage for cables, a wall charger, and a small 110v inverter. All you need to add is a solar panel (100 watt or better).

The plastic carrying case was $12 at Harbor Freight, the 50 amp/hr battery was $109 on Amazon, and the rest of the build (solar charge controller, cables, lighted output panel, inverter) added about $60. 

All in, including taxes, this can be assembled in a couple of hours for less than $200.  I built a second, lighter weight and smaller version using a 20 amp/hr LiFePo4 battery (240 watt/hours) for less than $140. Something to keep on the bedside table.

Whether home built, or store bought, these `solar generators' can greatly expand what you can do during a prolonged blackout. They can recharge any USB item, run most 12 volt appliances, and some can power small 110 volt appliances for a short period of time. 

Even without the 110 volt output, which on small systems provides limited value, these setups can power a lot of useful items. 

Two years ago I purchased some very nice 4-packs of LED lanterns, and some USB battery powered water pumps that attach as a faucet to large water jugs. Just three days after they arrived I endured a 3-day water outage at home, and found the faucets actually worked pretty well.

Every home should have a battery operated radio (with NWS weather band), yet many do not. Some are available with crank or solar charging, but most have rechargeable batteries via a USB port.  



A 12 volt system (of sufficient size) can power a mini-fridge, or electric cooler,  and can not only keep food from spoiling, and drinks cold, it can keep medications like insulin cool.   

As for entertainment - which should not be discounted during a prolonged power outage - while a USB setup will power and charge a personal MP3 player, a 12 volt system can run a DVD player. 

As an aside - I've collected (public domain) OTR (Old Time Radio) shows since the early 1990s, and have literally thousands of hours stored on CDs in MP3 format. The Internet Archive has a huge repository where you can download them for free, along with thousands of audiobooks.

I keep a couple of MP3 players filled with these shows and with audiobooks in my bug-out bag. When the power and internet were down, they have provided me with hours of entertainment.

Over the years I've bought several cheap MP3 players ($20-$30) and filled them with thousands of hours of these shows (mostly from the 1940s and 1950s), giving them as gifts. And the nice thing is, you don't have to wait for an emergency to enjoy them.

Admittedly, since I lived happily for nearly 15 years aboard boats (2 sailboats, 1 power boat) here in Florida - where 12 volts ran just about everything - I may be a bit more amenable to the 12 volt life than others.  

But despite its obvious limitations, it sure beats cursing the darkness.  

#Natlprep 2026: Pandemic Planning At Both Ends of the Spectrum

 

Note: This is the 16th day of National Preparedness Month. Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NatlPrep #BeReady or #PrepMonth hashtags.

This month, as part of NPM26, I’ll be rerunning some updated preparedness essays, along with some new ones.

#19,336

Next week (Sept 25th) the U.N. will host a meeting for world leaders in New York City for the purposes of pandemic planning, which will be broadcast live on UN Web TV.  

As this is a 1 day meeting, and it comes amid headwinds from several directions, it isn't clear exactly what will come from it.

Earlier this month, The Lancet published a comment (excerpts below) on this upcoming meeting, which discussed some of the many challenges it faces.

From commitment to governance: what should the 2026 UN high-level meeting on pandemic preparedness deliver?

Nelson Aghogho Evaborhenea,b Send email to nelsone@ruc.dk ∙ Maureen Lubac,d ∙ Hawi Getnet Degue ∙ Marc Bosonkief ∙ Douglas Muthinji Wanjag ∙ Pimchanok Ratanapisesh ∙ et al.  Article Info

Published September 4, 2026
DOI: 10.1016/j.langlo.2026.104070 External Link Also available on ScienceDirect External Link
Copyright: © 2026 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
 
Download PDF 

In September, 2026, world leaders will convene in New York for the second UN high-level meeting on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response (PPPR).1 The first high-level meeting produced a political declaration that reaffirmed commitments to strengthen pandemic preparedness and advance equity, catalysed the WHO Pandemic Agreement negotiations, and emphasised a whole-of-government and society approach to PPPR.1 Since then, member states have amended the International Health Regulations, adopted the Pandemic Agreement, expanded preparedness financing mechanisms, and proposed reforms to the broader global health architecture.

These developments represent substantial progress. However, the environment in which they must now operate has changed profoundly.

Geopolitical competition has intensified, multiple crises have diverted political attention and financial resources, official development assistance and multilateralism have come under increasing pressure, and the withdrawal of the USA from WHO has accelerated a turn towards nationalism and bilateral approaches to pandemic preparedness,2 adding another layer to an already complex architecture.

Meanwhile, regional institutions have assumed greater responsibilities for PPPR.3 In Africa, for example, the revised statute of Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) adopted in 2022 expanded the Africa CDC’s mandate and gave it authority to declare a Public Health Emergency of Continental Security, a power Africa CDC exercised during the 2024 mpox outbreak and again during the ongoing Ebola outbreak, alongside WHO’s declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Without meaningful coordination, parallel initiatives risk creating overlapping mandates, fragmented financing, and competing expectations relating to surveillance, pathogen sharing, data governance, and equitable access to medical countermeasures.4

Against this backdrop, the credibility of the high-level meeting should not be measured on the basis of yet another ambitious political declaration, but instead, on the basis of whether the meeting delivers a credible governance framework that aligns ongoing reforms, strengthens their coherence, and translates political commitments into sustained preparedness. We outline three priorities.

       (Continue . . . )

The expectation is that these world leaders will adopt a non-binding "political declaration" on preventing and preparing for future pandemics which was drafted over the summer. While long on good intentions, this document lacks much in the way of `teeth' (enforcement mechanisms, dedicated funding, or even a detailed roadmap).

Meanwhile, public health entities and researchers around the world continue to sound the alarm. A few (of many) examples: 

• In April of 2025 the ECDC published ECDC Guidance: Recommendations for Preparedness Planning for Public Health Threats

• In July 2025 Switzerland Unveiled a New Pandemic Plan

• Also in 2025, Canada announced plans to Purchase 500,000 doses Of H5N1 Vaccine and the EU announced plans to purchase up to 27 million doses. 

• Last December the ECDC published Pre-pandemic Guidance: Strategies to Fight Avian and Swine flu in Humans

• And just last month we looked at Referral: Two Related Papers (PNAS & The Lancet) on Preparing for The Next Pandemic

Whether these plans - or the vaccines and antivirals being stockpiled - will be adequate or appropriate for the next global health crisis remains to be seen. As we've seen before, No Pandemic Plan Survives Contact With A Novel Virus.

But having a framework for dealing with a crisis, and running realistic exercises, can be invaluable when the next pandemic strikes.

Most of these pandemic plans are created by - and for - national governments.  What planning may be going on at state/province/or local levels - or for the private sector - is harder to discern. 

But as many people learned to their cost during the last pandemic, it is just as important to be prepared on the individual, family, and neighborhood level.

Sadly, over the past few years much of the public guidance that was once heavily promoted by the CDC and HHS on pandemic preparedness has been expunged from their websites. 

It's as if the first rule of pandemic preparedness in the 2020's is . . . we don't talk about pandemic preparedness.

Buried in the CDC's archives, however, are a number of useful documents, including these from 2017 (download them while they are still available):

• Get Your Household Ready For Pandemic Flu {PDF - 16 pages]
• Get Ready for Pandemic Flu: Educational Settings [PDF – 16 pages]

• Get Ready for Pandemic Flu: Workplace Settings [PDF – 16 pages]  

In addition to the advice offered in these (and other) guidance documents, I'd like to offer 5 things you can do today to prepare for a possibility of seeing another pandemic sometime in the reasonably near future.

1. Get, and become, a `Flu Buddy'

The first item is one we've discussed often (see Yes, We Have No Pandemic . . . But Line Up A Flu Buddy Anyway). I first fleshed out the idea in a 2008 blog called Lifelines In A Pandemic.

A `Flu Buddy’ is simply someone you can call if you get sick, who will then check on you every day (by phone, social media, or in person), make sure you have the food and medicines you need (including fetching prescriptions if appropriate), help care for you if needed, and who can call for medical help if your condition deteriorates.

Those people who care for others, like single parents, also need to consider who will take care of their dependents if they are sick.

2. Avail yourselves of the vaccines that are available now.

While the evidence is limited, there are some studies suggesting that getting the seasonal flu vaccine may give you some small degree of protection against the H5N1 virus. Even if it doesn't, it may reduce your chances of having a dual infection, which could either be more serious, or even lead to a reassortant virus.

COVID remains a threat, and a dual COVID-flu infection can be worse than either one alone, so if you can get one - keeping current with that vaccine makes sense as well.

Since bacterial co-infections are common with influenza, getting the latest appropriate pneumonia vaccines can also a smart move. In 2023, I also updated my Tetanus shot (Tdap), and those over 75 will want to consider the RSV vaccine.

3. Get a Dr. Checkup, Renew Rx Meds, & Handle any Medical Issues

Over the past 3 years I've endured two 21-day scalp and face field treatment (Fluorouracil) following my skin cancer surgery in 2024 (and again in 2026). 

I also got my Rx meds renewed, and have laid in a stock of any OTC meds I might need.

4. Stock up on PPEs or other supplies you might need

I went into COVID with an existing supply of N95 masks and gloves, and I refreshed my stocks in 2022, but if you don't already have all the N95/KN95 or other personal protective gear you would want or need during a pandemic, now is the time buy them.

Once a crisis begins, it is often too late to stock up. And that goes for any preparedness supplies or gear you might desire in an emergency (Hand Sanitizers/OTC meds/etc.)

5. Be prepared to Shelter in Place

If there was one lesson from the opening months of COVID, it is that many of us may elect - or be forced - to stay home, and avoid public places. Supply chains may be compromised, and there may be runs on `necessities' leaving some store shelves bare.

We see this every year before blizzards and hurricanes, and so it makes sense - whenever possible - to keep a stocked pantry, along with the other staples of life.

 
Last winter, in The Gift of Preparedness 2025 we looked a number of items that might make life more bearable during an extended `bug-in' situation.The good news is, much of what you need to do now to prepare for a pandemic would hold you in good stead for any prolonged emergency or disaster. Frankly, there is not much here I wouldn't do to be prepared for hurricanes, blizzards, or earthquakes.

And if we get lucky, and no pandemic (or other emergency) occurs in the near term, I'll count my blessings - and sleep much better at night - knowing I'd done everything I could to be prepared.

And as a wise man once said:

“Everything you say in advance of a pandemic seems alarmist. Anything you’ve done after it starts is inadequate." - Michael Leavitt, Former Secretary of HHS

#NPM26: Preparing For An El Niño Winter

Credit NOAA

Note: This is the 5th day of National Preparedness Month. Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NatlPrep #BeReady or #PrepMonth hashtags.

This month, as part of NPM26, I’ll be rerunning some updated preparedness essays, along with some new ones.

#19,324

Two years ago I was forced to evacuate (for the 3rd time in 10 years) from my west-central Florida home due to the approach of hurricane Milton, which passed 50-60 miles to my south. 

While I live roughly 40 miles inland, and at a high (for Florida) elevation, we saw prolonged hurricane force winds, massive tree damage, and - thanks to 14" of rain in a few hours - a 500 year-flood.

It took 4 days for the water to recede enough for me to return home. Luckily I had a `disaster buddy' who took me and my cat in for the duration. I was lucky, my home wasn't flooded, although some only a hundred yards away were. 

It took 4 days to get power back on, and a week to get internet (see Signs of Life).  While my home took substantial wind damage, it was inland flooding that caused the worst damage to my community. 

Now, imagine that sort of rain dump happening - perhaps repeatedly - this winter in California.  That's the growing concern for state officials (see ABC-7 News  'Super El Niño' strengthens, triggering preparations for possible flooding in LA County).

Depending on the intensity, duration, and frequency of such storms, it could even lead to an ARkStorm event, which we first looked at 15 years ago in ARkStorm: California’s other "Big One".

While it sounds like the plot from a bad made-for-cable Sci Fi film, this actually comes from the USGS Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) analysis of a winter storm scenario with historical precedence.

From the USGS website: 

Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years.

USGS Video On ARkStorm

We returned to this topic in 2022's California's ARkStorm Scenario Revisited, after the USGS released an updated assessment; one that suggested that as the climate grows hotter and dryer, it increases the odds of seeing another catastrophic ARkStorm event. 

Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood
XINGYING HUANG AND DANIEL L. SWAIN 
SCIENCE ADVANCES
12 Aug 2022
Vol 8, Issue 32
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abq0995

Abstract

Despite the recent prevalence of severe drought, California faces a broadly underappreciated risk of severe floods. Here, we investigate the physical characteristics of “plausible worst case scenario” extreme storm sequences capable of giving rise to “megaflood” conditions using a combination of climate model data and high-resolution weather modeling.

Using the data from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, we find that climate change has already doubled the likelihood of an event capable of producing catastrophic flooding, but larger future increases are likely due to continued warming. We further find that runoff in the future extreme storm scenario is 200 to 400% greater than historical values in the Sierra Nevada because of increased precipitation rates and decreased snow fraction. These findings have direct implications for flood and emergency management, as well as broader implications for hazard mitigation and climate adaptation activities.

       (Continue . . . )

This is an extreme scenario - and remains a low probability event despite this winter's El Niño - but even something less severe could cause considerable damage, and potentially loss of life. 

So, the question is, how ready are you and your family for severe weather this winter?  The LA County website  advises:

LA County is preparing its flood control and emergency response systems now. Crews are inspecting and maintaining dams, debris basins, channels, storm drains, and pump stations; monitoring burn areas, hillsides, and other areas at risk of flooding and debris flows; and preparing for evacuations, emergency shelter, and other storm response. County teams are also preparing to assist people experiencing homelessness, older adults, and others who may need additional help during severe weather.

Here’s what residents can do now:

• Sign up for emergency alerts: Go to alert.lacounty.gov to receive emergency notifications, including evacuation warnings and orders.
• Know the risks where you live: If you are near a hillside, canyon, recent burn area, or area that can flood, learn your flood and mudflow risk before a storm.
• Make an evacuation plan: Know where you will go and how you will get there if you need to leave quickly.
• Have supplies ready: Keep enough food, water, medications, and other essentials for up to 10 days.
• Prepare your home: Clear gutters, downspouts, and storm drains, fix roof leaks, and get sandbags before heavy rain is in the forecast.
• Consider flood insurance: Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage. Flood insurance is separate and can take at least 30 days to go into effect.
• Need help with mud or debris flow risk? Call LA County Public Works at 1-800-933-0930 to speak with an engineer.
• Know someone experiencing homelessness who needs help? Visit homeless.lacounty.gov/get-help/

But it isn't just California that could be impacted by a strong El Niño.  

Here in Florida - where we are enjoying the quietest Atlantic Hurricane Season in recent memory - we've a history of seeing strong winter storms during El Niño years, including the tornado outbreak of 1998 which killed 42 people. 

Predicting exactly where unusual or severe weather will occur this winter due to El Niño is impossible, but generally, the jet stream across the United States shifts storm tracks to the southern tier of states. 

While this doesn't guarantee that other areas will get a free ride this winter, it does suggest that California may be unusually wet, and ice storms and blizzards may be more likely to develop across the deep south this coming winter. 

Exactly where that may happen is unknowable, but five years ago (Feb 2021) 3 successive winter storms swept across Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma, causing the worst collapse of the Texas energy grid on record (see Texas: The Latest - But Not The Last - Grid Down Crisis).

At least 4.5 million homes were without power during a week of bitter winter temperatures, resulting in hundreds of deaths and tens of billions of dollars of damage (see City of Austin & Travis County 2021 WINTER STORM URI AFTER-ACTION REVIEW).

While I can't tell you where the next natural disaster will strike, or how bad it will be, being prepared for whatever comes is your best defense. 

So, if the grid goes down, or flood waters rise, or the ground begins to shake . . . do you already have?

• A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
• A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
• Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
• A way to provide light when the grid is down.
• A way to cook safely without electricity
• A way to purify or filter water
• A way to handle basic sanitation and waste disposal.
• A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
• A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
• An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
• Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
• A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout

If not, you've got some important work to do.  A good place to get started is by visiting Ready.gov.