The NERC 2025 Summer (Electrical Grid) Reliability Assessment

 

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Last month's 18-hour blackout across most of Spain, Portugal, and parts of France - which followed a nearly 48-hour grid down event in Puerto Rico two weeks before - is a reminder how easily our world can be turned upside down by an infrastructure failure, natural disaster, or malicious attack.

While the cause of Europe's blackout continues to be investigated, the fact is prolonged power outages have become increasingly common, due to the increased load on power systems and the number weather-related disasters around the globe. 

During 2024 the United States saw 27 Billion-dollar weather disasters, resulting in the deaths of at least 568 people, and economic losses of over $180 billion dollars.  Many involved prolonged power outages. 

In addition to ageing infrastructure, and ever increasing power demands, there are threats from cyber attacks (see DHS: NIAC Cyber Threat Report), solar flares and CMEs (see FEMA: Preparing the Nation for Space Weather Events), and even potential disruptions due to earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis. 

These are serious enough threats that in December of 2018, in NIAC: Surviving A Catastrophic Power Outage, we looked at a NIAC (National Infrastructure Advisory Council) 94-page report that examined the United State's current ability to respond to and recover from a widespread catastrophic power outage. 

It is the job of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) to "ensure the reliability of the North American bulk power system", a mandate given to it in 2006 as a result of the 2003 Northeast blackout which affected more than 50 million people in the United States and Ontario, Canada.

Yesterday (May 14th) NERC released their 2025 Summer Grid Reliability Assessment (54 pages, PDF), which warns:

Record Load Growth, High Temperatures Expected to Strain Grid This Summer

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Load growth is expected to drive higher peak demand this summer and could strain resources in some areas during certain periods. According to NERC’s 2025 Summer Reliability Assessment, aggregated peak demand is forecast to increase across all 23 assessment areas by 10 GW—more than double the increase from 2023 to 2024. New data centers, electrification, and industrial activity are contributing to higher demand forecasts.

While all areas are projected to have adequate resources for normal summer conditions, above-normal electricity demand, periods of low wind and solar output, and wide-area heat events that disrupt available transfers and generator availability could leave system operators short on supply in at-risk areas, the assessment finds. New resource additions—primarily solar and some batteries—are helping to meet surging load growth. However, these additions are offset by ongoing generator retirements and introduce more complexity and energy limitations into the resource mix.

Full Announcement | 2025 SRA | 2025 SRA Infographic |  2025 SRA Video 

Regardless of how it happens (natural or deliberate), or the scale (local, regional, national), our fragile power grid is the Achilles heel of our nation, and our economy.   

Most disasters boil down to unscheduled camping - for days, or sometimes weeks - in your home, in a community shelter, or possibly even in your backyard.  

 My `standard advice' is that everyone should strive to have the ability to withstand 7 to 10 days without power and water. Recommended preps include:

• A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
• A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
• Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
• A way to provide light when the grid is down.
• A way to cook safely without electricity
• A way to purify or filter water
• A way to handle basic sanitation and waste disposal. 
• A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
• A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
• An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
• Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
• A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout

Some of my preparedness blogs on how to become better prepared in case the lights go out include:

 #NatlPrep: Prolonged Grid Down Preparedness

Post-Milton Improvements To My Power Preps

The Gift of Preparedness 2024

Being prepared for prolonged power outages doesn't guarantee you and your loved ones will come through a major disaster unscathed.

But it is relatively cheap insurance, and when things go pear-shaped, it can substantially improve your chances. 

NOAA/NWS SPC: Another `High Risk' Severe Storm Day

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While we sometimes can go a year or longer without seeing a `High Risk' forecast from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), today they've issued their second in just over 2 weeks (see previous).  Although the High Risk region is relatively small, the moderate and enhanced risk areas for today are substantial.  

Somewhere between 1000 and 1200 tornadoes are reported each year in the U.S., although that number has been going up in recent years, possibly because of better detection methods. Roughly half occur between March and May, making the spring - particularly in the South and Central states - prime time for these storms. 

 During the summer, the focus for severe weather moves away from the south (Dixie Alley), and into the mid west (aka `Tornado Alley'). 

For most Americans, a severe weather event is their biggest regional disaster threat; hurricanes, tornado outbreaks, blizzards, Derechos, and ice storms affect millions of people every year. Having a good (and well rehearsed) family emergency plan is essential for any disaster.

It is important for your plan to include emergency meeting places, out-of-state contacts, and individual wallet information cards - before you need it (see #NatlPrep : Create A Family Communications Plan).

Together with adequate emergency supplies, a solid first aid kit, and an emergency battery operated NWS Weather Radio, these steps will go a long ways to protecting you, and your family, from a wide variety of potential disasters.

Because it's not a matter of `if' another disaster will strike . .  . 

It's only a matter of where, when, and how bad. 

NOAA SPC: High Risk Of Severe Storms/Tornadoes Across the South

 

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Overnight at least 25 tornadoes were reported across the Midwest, along with hundreds of reports of high winds and hail (see chart below), as was predicted 3 days ago by NOAA (see NOAA SPC: Multi-day Episode Of Severe Weather Expected Fri/Sat).

While much of the damage won't be revealed until after sunrise today, already there are media reports of multiple storm-related fatalities.  While yesterday's forecast was for a moderate risk of severe weather, today that ramps up to a HIGH risk in parts of the deep south. 

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0322 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025

...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over  parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley today into tonight...

* LOCATIONS...

•      Alabama
•      Mississippi
•      Louisiana
•      Western Georgia
•      Southern Tennessee
•      The Florida Panhandle
•      Southern Arkansas

* HAZARDS...

     Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track

     Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force

     Scattered large hail, some baseball size

 

* SUMMARY...

A tornado outbreak is expected across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous  significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening.

The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday  night.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

& ..Thompson.. 03/15/2025

Most years roughly half of all U.S. tornadoes occur during March-April-May, as winter gives way to spring and summer.  During the summer, the focus for severe weather moves away from the south (Dixie Alley), and into the mid west (aka `Tornado Alley'). 

For most Americans, a severe weather event is their biggest regional disaster threat; hurricanes, tornado outbreaks, blizzards, Derechos, and ice storms affect millions of people every year. Having a good (and well rehearsed) family emergency plan is essential for any disaster.

It is important for your plan to include emergency meeting places, out-of-state contacts, and individual wallet information cards - before you need it (see #NatlPrep : Create A Family Communications Plan).

Together with adequate emergency supplies, a solid first aid kit, and an emergency battery operated NWS Weather Radio, these steps will go a long ways to protecting you, and your family, from a wide variety of potential disasters.

Because it's not a matter of `if' another disaster will strike . .  . 

It's only a matter of where, when, and how bad. 

NOAA SPC: Multi-day Episode Of Severe Weather Expected Fri/Sat

 
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While the spring severe weather season has been relatively quiet thus far (see NOAA SPC chart below), it often doesn't really get started until March, and usually peaks in April and May. 

The Storm Prediction Center has issued an `Enhanced Risk' for severe weather across much of the Midwest and extending into the Southeast on Friday and Saturday.  While that forecast will be firmed up over the next 48 hours, for now they state:

I you haven't already, you should activate weather alerts on your cell phone, and have a NSWS weather radio as a backup. If you find yourself in a warned area, take it seriously, and seek shelter immediately.



For most Americans, a severe weather event is their biggest regional disaster threat; hurricanes, tornado outbreaks, blizzards, Derechos, and ice storms affect millions of people every year. Having a good (and well rehearsed) family emergency plan is essential for any disaster.

It is important for your plan to include emergency meeting places, out-of-state contacts, and individual wallet information cards - before you need it (see #NatlPrep : Create A Family Communications Plan).

Together with adequate emergency supplies, a solid first aid kit, emergency alerts on your cell phone or an emergency battery operated NWS Weather Radio, these steps will go a long ways to protecting you, and your family, from a wide variety of potential disasters.

As a Floridian who went through 2 hurricanes last fall, I am more than aware that we are only a couple of months from the start of the Atlantic Hurricane season - and while the worst storms aren't expected until late summer or early fall - I'm already reviewing my hurricane preps.

Because it's not a matter of `if' another disaster will strike . . .

It's only a matter of where, when, and how bad.

Emergency Preparedness: A Medicine For The Melancholy

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During 2024 the United States saw 27 Billion-dollar weather disasters, resulting in the deaths of at least 568 people, and economic losses of over $180 billion dollars.  While not the worst year on record, it was bad enough. 

Last fall - along with several million other Floridians -  I found myself under the gun for the second time in two weeks from an approaching hurricane. While I was able to ride out Helene in my home, Milton was another story (see With Milton, Evacuation Is The Better Part Of Valor).

Thanks to having a Disaster Buddy, I had a pre-arranged safe place to go. And while my home took some damage, the floodwaters - which inundated homes only a few hundred feet from mine - spared my humble abode.  It would take more than a week for my power, water, and Internet to be fully restored (see Signs of Life), but I count myself very lucky. 

Since this was my 3rd evacuation in the past 7 years, I was reasonably well prepared.  But every crisis is a learning experience, and since then I've improved my emergency preparations (see Post-Milton Improvements To My Power Preps).

Already in 2025, Southern California has endured the costliest wildfire in history, while the Southern States (Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia and Florida) experienced rare blizzard conditions. Although nowhere is completely safe, FEMA's National Risk Index For Natural Disasters (see map below) shows the historically highest risk areas in the country.

Not surprisingly, Southern California and much of Florida are among the highest risk regions in the nation. 

No one can predict what the next 11 months will bring, but the spring severe weather season is likely only weeks from ramping up, hurricane season starts again in 5 months, and earthquakes, wildfires, and floods can happen at any time. 

While most disasters are local or regional, some can be national or international in scope.

• In December of 2018, in NIAC: Surviving A Catastrophic Power Outage, we looked at a NIAC (National Infrastructure Advisory Council) 94-page report that examined the United State's current ability to respond to and recover from a widespread catastrophic power outage.

• Eight years ago, in DHS: NIAC Cyber Threat Report - August 2017, we looked at a 45-page report addressing urgent cyber threats to our critical infrastructure that called for `bold, decisive actions'. 

• Last September, in #NatlPrep: Preparing For Extreme Space Weather, we revisited the potential for grid damage from a Coronal Mass Ejection from the sun.

And of course, the elephant in the room is the potential for seeing another pandemic. On December 4th PAHO (the Pan American Health Organization) issued a strongly worded 20-page epidemiological alert on the growing number of human H5N1 cases in the United States, urging that Member states `. . . ensure preparedness for a potential influenza pandemic at all levels (14, 15).'

While we might go years before that happens again, the aggressive spread and spillover of avian flu is a genuine concern, and - like with COVID - there could be little or no warning should it happen.

Three months ago, in A Personal Pre-Pandemic Plan, I provided links to a number of useful documents - many buried in the CDC Archives - on preparing for a pandemic.  I'd suggest downloading them now, while they remain easily accessible. 

• Get Your Household Ready For Pandemic Flu {PDF - 16 pages]
• Get Ready for Pandemic Flu: Educational Settings [PDF – 16 pages]

• Get Ready for Pandemic Flu: Workplace Settings [PDF – 16 pages]  

I would also suggest - in addition to lining up one or more `flu buddies' - that if you plan to have NPIs like face masks, and hand sanitizer - that you get them now, while supplies are abundant, and costs are relatively low. 

Other preparations that would be useful in any emergency/disaster situation include:

• Having enough food and water stockpiled for 10 to 14 days
  

• Having a family communications plan

• Having extra prescription medications in case of supply chain problems

• Having written medical histories on all family members

• Consider having a Living Will and Health Care Proxy

• Take advantage of existing Flu/COVID vaccines

• Making sure you are current on other vaccines liked Tetanus, Pneumonia, etc.
• Consider acquiring emergency heating, lighting, cooking, and entertainment supplies (see The Gift of Preparedness 2024)

The physical and psychological impacts stemming from the hardships following a disaster are quite real (see Post-Disaster Sequelae), and a modicum of creature comforts can go a long ways towards mitigating their effects.

While being better prepared doesn't guarantee you and your loved ones will come through a major disaster unscathed - it is relatively cheap insurance - and it can substantially improve your chances.

And for me at least, I sleep a lot better knowing I am reasonably well prepared for . . . whatever may come. 

 

Some Last Minute Preparedness Stocking Stuffers

CDC Infographic

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Although nature never sleeps, public health reporting from government agencies and news sources tend to slow markedly over the holidays. Many science journals don't publish much in the second half of December, and things often don't return to `normal' until the second week of January. 

While blogging topics may be in short supply this week and next, I'm fairly confident a few of my readers are still scrambling for last minute gift ideas, or stocking stuffers, for this holiday season.

Each fall, during and just after National Preparedness Month, I make the case for buying preparedness items for holiday gift giving, with my most recent appeal in November (see The Gift of Preparedness 2024).

In that blog you’ll find both low cost `stocking stuffers’ along with some bigger ticket items like solar panels, battery banks, and FRS and crank radios.

With time running short, and most of our wallets running thin, I thought I’d run through my list of under $25 preparedness gift ideas. Most should be easy to find on the shelves, even at this late date.

A good place to look are the sporting goods section of big box stores, in home improvement centers, or discount stores like Big Lots.

NOTE: Products mentioned here are to provide a general idea of the type of gift, and should not be viewed as an endorsement of one brand over another.

Batteries, and battery chargers make terrific preparedness gifts. Just about everyone uses AA or AAA batteries, and you can either buy a decent quantity of disposable batteries, or go `green’ with a handful of rechargeable batteries and a charger for under $25.

When the lights go out, nothing beats having a few good LED flashlights or lanterns. And each year they get brighter, and cheaper. Most run between $5 and $10, and that beats the heck out of cursing the darkness.

A couple of years ago I bought several water filtration systems, one to keep and a couple to give to prepping buddies. LifeStraw ® weighs just 2 ounces, and this personal water filter will reportedly filter 1000 liters down to .2 microns. Not bad for around $20.



I've also added the Sawyer Mini-Filter to my preps, again about $20.



Emergency cook stoves can be had for under $20. A 1 burner propane camp stove costs about $15, add a couple of 1 pound propane cylinders (about $5 each) and you can cook for a family for a week.   Other options include `Sterno' or `canned heat' stoves, which run under $10 (plus fuel).



At about $4 each, magnesium fire starters each year make excellent stocking stuffers.


Something as simple, and as utilitarian, as a multi-function `Swiss’ army knife or a `Multi-tool’ makes a great preparedness gifts.




For emergency electrical power, I found an 80 watt cigarette lighter inverter for my car. It can power a small laptop, and has a USB charger port as well. Under $20.


And for under $10, you can pick up a cigarette lighter USB charger, that can top off your phone or mobile device.

There are a lot of combination AM/FM Weather ALERT radios available for under $25, many have alternate power options (solar, hand crank, AA batteries, etc.).  Every home and business should have at least one emergency alert radio.

This year - with flu steadily rising, COVID still hanging on, and the specter of bird flu in the wings -  safety goggles, a box of vinyl or nitrile gloves, or a box of facemasks (or N95 masks) should be in everyone’s emergency kit as well.




There are, of course, many other gift possibilities.  As we discussed last September in #NatlPrep: Prolonged Grid Down Preparedness, most disasters boil down to unscheduled camping - for days, or sometimes weeks - in your home, in a community shelter, or possibly even in your backyard.

Anything that would make that easier, or safer, makes a good preparedness item. 

While I can’t predict what the new year will bring - if 2025 turns out anything like 2024 - there's a pretty good chance that there are going to be plenty of people who will wish they had most – if not all – of these items on hand before the next disaster strikes.

Because, during any emergency, the advantage always goes to those who were prepared.

Signs of Life

Credit NOAA
 

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Sometime overnight, my internet came back to life. Considering the amount of damage my community (Zephyrhills) sustained from Milton, the restoration of my power (after 4 days) and internet after a week, border on miraculous. 

Not everyone here has power, though.  Many neighborhoods, and roads, are still under water.  Thousands of homes here are damaged, some may be total losses.  Utility trucks and crews are everywhere.   Without internet, the predominant sound your hear are chainsaws. 

I was lucky.  I had a safe place to go, thanks to my `disaster buddy'.  Over the years we've come to each others aid - for problems large and small - dozens of times.  I also had a home to come back to.  My neighborhood did not flood, although it was isolated by downed trees and flood waters for several days. 

My home took moderate damage - and sprang a few leaks - but is habitable. My gutters are gone, metal shutters stripped from the outside, but the roof held.  Everything was damp inside, as torrential rains driven by hurricane force winds, found every ingress (wall A/C units, jalousie windows, minor leaks around windows, etc.). 

All in all, I count myself very lucky. 

My preps provide us with light and NWS emergency radio information during our (relatively brief) loss of power and internet at my bug-out location during the storm.  Since returning home on Monday, they have been of greater use.

In a disaster area, cash is king.  Many stores are unable to process debit and credit cards right now.  All refrigerated food stuffs - meat, dairy, frozen foods - were lost during the storm and right now - many grocery store shelves are devoid of such luxuries. 

Yes, I could drive 12-15 miles out of the area to shop, but the roads are a mess and gasoline has been a precious commodity. Besides, I've got my hurricane canned food stash to eat out of.  

One of my neighbors is still without electricity.  I was able to lend him a propane camp stove, so they can cook.   A redundant prep, since I have a propane stove, but glad it was useful for someone. 

Without Internet, I'm fairly isolated.  No TV . . . my primary access to the outside world coming from phone calls and text messages from friends (many thanks to Sharon Sanders of FluTrackers).  

I do have a small multi-media DVD player, and an ample supply of music and movies.  A small creature comfort that I highly recommend.  I also have a personal MP3 player, and hundreds of hours of music and podcasts if needed.

My `big ticket' preps, solar panels and 12-volt LiFePo batteries did not come into play, although if I'd not had a safe place to go, they would have provided me with badly needed power for those first 4 days after the storm.  

People often ask me why I prep.  

• Why I keep 30+ gals of stored water, 2 weeks worth of canned food in the pantry, an emergency radio, (several) first aid kits, solar panels, and an array of LED lanterns, battery operated fans, water filters, and a camp stove.

• Why I have an evacuation plan, and a `disaster buddy'. 

This is my 3rd forced evacuation since 2017, and the worst disaster this region has seen in > 100 years.  As bad as is was here, it could have been far worse.  Had the storm come in 30 miles further north, the entire Tampa Bay region would have taken a terrible blow.

As it is, my neighbors further down the coast took the brunt of the storm.  Where I live, most of the damage has come from record inland flooding, which in many places has not receded. 

If we are lucky, we won't see the likes of this again for another hundred years.  But there are no guarantees of that.  

Two weeks prior to Milton, hurricane Helene passed to our west, inundating Florida's west coast with the worst coast flooding in decades. 

Nature has no memory.  We may go years without another major strike, or it could happen again next year.  My town was well inland, at a high (for Florida) elevation, and had never flooded like this before. But rainfall rates of 3 to 5 inches per hour, with some places getting 18 inches - after an extremely wet summer - was simply too much. 

The impacts last month from Hurricane Helene in Georgia and in North & South Carolina remind us that you don't have to live along the coast to suffer extreme (and unexpected) damage from these tropical systems. 

And it isn't as if hurricanes are the only threat we face (see #NatlPrep: Prolonged Grid Down Preparedness).

Earthquakes, wild fires, tornado outbreaks, blizzards, ice storms, infrastructure failures, cyber attacks, and even solar storms are all potential threats, and can affect anyone at almost any time. 

So . . . if a disaster struck your region today, and the power went out, stores closed their doors, and water stopped flowing from your kitchen tap for the next 7 to 14 days . . . do you already have:

• A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
• A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
• Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
• A way to provide light when the grid is down.
• A way to cook safely without electricity
• A way to purify or filter water
• A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
• A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
• An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
• Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
• A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout

If your answer is `no’, you have some work to do. 

Disasters often boil down to unscheduled camping - for days, or sometimes weeks - in your home, in a community shelter, or possibly in your backyard. If you think of preparedness that way, it becomes far less daunting.

 

FEMA, Ready.gov and a myriad of other state and national entities know the risks we face, and would like to see Americans adopt and embrace a culture of preparedness.

But you need to act now, before the next disaster strikes.

P.S. - I'll be slowly resuming my regular blogging schedule.  I've a lot of catching up to do, and a fair amount of work still left to do on the ground here.

MMWR: Interim Effectiveness Estimates of 2024 Southern Hemisphere Influenza Vaccines

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Although Florida is now less than 48 hours from the expected arrival of Hurricane Milton, one of my pre-evacuation preps yesterday was to get my seasonal flu shot.  Two weeks ago, in preparation for our close encounter with Helene, I got my fall COVID vaccine.  

Last year, I also updated my Tetanus shot (Tdap).  

As I've explained previously (see #NatlPrep: Giving Your Preparedness Plan A Shot In The Arm), the last thing you want to have to deal with during an emergency is being sick.  And when you are stressed, and fatigued - and maybe cooped up with a lot of other people - your chances of catching something go up. 

Admittedly, Flu and COVID vaccines only provide modest protection against infection, but they usually do a better job at reducing severe illness and hospitalization. And since severe influenza infection is linked to strokes and heart attacks, even a modest amount protection can be lifesaving. 

Yesterday the CDC's MMWR published the results of a study of this year's flu vaccine effectiveness (VE) in 5 South American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay) - which has the same components as the Northern Hemisphere's fall vaccine - and reports that it reduced the risk of hospitalization in high-risk patients by 35%.

While far from a stellar result, it is a significant reduction of risk. One that I'm more than happy to have on board, given the challenges ahead. 

I've only reproduced the Abstract and summary.  Follow the link to read the report in its entirety.  I

Interim Effectiveness Estimates of 2024 Southern Hemisphere Influenza Vaccines in Preventing Influenza-Associated Hospitalization — REVELAC-i Network, Five South American Countries, March–July 2024

Weekly / October 3, 2024 / 73(39);861–868

Erica E. Zeno, PhD1,2,*; Francisco Nogareda, MPH3,*; Annette Regan, PhD3,4; Paula Couto, MD3; Marc Rondy, PhD3; Jorge Jara, MD3; Carla Voto, MD5; Maria Paz Rojas Mena, MD5; Nathalia Katz, MD6; Maria del Valle Juarez, MPH6; Estefanía Benedetti, MPH7; Francisco José de Paula Júnior, MD8; Walquiria Aparecida Ferreira da Almeida, PhD8; Carlos Edson Hott, MBA8; Paula Rodríguez Ferrari, MSN9; Natalia Vergara Mallegas, MPH9; Marcela Avendaño Vigueras9; Chavely Domínguez, MD10; Marta von Horoch, MD11; Cynthia Vazquez, Phd12; Eduardo Silvera13; Hector Chiparelli, MD14; Natalia Goni, PhD14; Laura Castro, DrPH1; Perrine Marcenac, PhD1; Rebecca J. Kondor, PhD1; Juliana Leite, PhD3; Martha Velandia, MD3; Eduardo Azziz-Baumgartner1; Ashley L. Fowlkes, ScD1; Daniel Salas, MD3; REVELAC-i Network 

Summary

What is already known about this topic?

Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) varies by season.

What is added by this report?

In five South American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay) the 2024 Southern Hemisphere seasonal influenza vaccine reduced the risk for influenza-associated hospitalization among high-risk groups by 35%. VE might be similar in the Northern Hemisphere if similar A(H3N2) viruses predominate during the 2024–25 influenza season.

What are the implications for public health practice?

CDC recommends that all eligible persons aged ≥6 months receive seasonal influenza vaccine. Early antiviral treatment can complement vaccination to protect against severe influenza-related morbidity.

Full Issue PDF

Abstract

To reduce influenza-associated morbidity and mortality, countries in South America recommend annual influenza vaccination for persons at high risk for severe influenza illness, including young children, persons with preexisting health conditions, and older adults. Interim estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) from Southern Hemisphere countries can provide early information about the protective effects of vaccination and help guide Northern Hemisphere countries in advance of their season.

Using data from a multicountry network, investigators estimated interim VE against influenza-associated severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) hospitalization using a test-negative case-control design. During March 13–July 19, 2024, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay identified 11,751 influenza-associated SARI cases; on average, 21.3% of patients were vaccinated against influenza, and the adjusted VE against hospitalization was 34.5%. The adjusted VE against the predominating subtype A(H3N2) was 36.5% and against A(H1N1)pdm09 was 37.1%.

These interim VE estimates suggest that although the proportion of hospitalized patients who were vaccinated was modest, vaccination with the Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine significantly lowered the risk for hospitalization. Northern Hemisphere countries should, therefore, anticipate the need for robust influenza vaccination campaigns and early antiviral treatment to achieve optimal protection against influenza-associated complications.

         (Continue . . . )
 

There is still time for Floridians in the path of Milton to get the flu/COVID vaccines, as well as those struggling to deal with the aftermath of Helene. I know it may seem pretty far down your list of things to do.

But during an extended disaster, you need every edge you can get. 

#Natlprep: Vigilance Is The Key

 

Note: This is the 28th day of National Preparedness Month. Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NatlPrep #BeReady or #PrepMonth hashtags.

This month, as part of NPM24, I’ll be rerunning some updated preparedness essays, along with some new ones.

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Thirty-six hours after Helene made landfall in north Florida, more than 3 million customers remain without power across 10 states (SC, GA, NC, FL, VA, KY, WV, IN, TN), tens of thousands of families are displaced due to flood waters or damage, and rebuilding for some will take months or even years. 

As we discussed prior to landfall, some of the worst damage has occurred hundreds of miles inland, long after the system had been downgraded to a tropical storm.  And with rivers and streams still rising, and with weakened dams and levees still under pressure, the disaster is far from over. 

Losses may run into the tens of billions of dollars, and yet, it could have been much worse. Had Helene tracked just 80 miles further to the east, the entirety of the west coast of Florida would have taken a horrendous blow, and several major cities might be uninhabitable (as was New Orleans in 2005), for weeks or months. 

Adding insult to injury, this morning the National Hurricane Center has an area marked for possible development of yet another tropical system (see map at top of blog) sometime next week.   While it stands at only a 40% probability - and it may fizzle - it bears watching. 

This from this morning's 2 am Tropical Weather Outlook:

Hurricane season runs for two more months, but powerful Nor'easters and blizzards can ravage the eastern seaboard from early fall though spring.  Each year more than 1,000 tornadoes rip across the American south and mid-west. 

And earthquakes, fires, floods - and even another pandemic  - can occur at anytime with little or no warning.  It is a never-ending cycle.

In 2023, the United States recorded a record 28  Billion-dollar weather/climate disasters. 

For the past 20 years the United States has designated September as National Preparedness month, and since 2007 I've used this blog to help promote better individual and community preparedness.  As a former paramedic - and then a live-aboard sailor for > 15 years - I've learned first hand the value of being prepared to deal with emergencies. 

While no one can be completely prepared for every contingency, even a little preparedness can go a long ways towards mitigating risks.  

The time to improve your preparedness is now, before the next threat appears on the horizon. But it shouldn't be a one-and-done exercise. Ideally, preparedness is a permanent state of mind and/or lifestyle that you'll work to continually improve. 

Each year FEMA conducts a nationwide poll on preparedness, and they released their 2023 survey last December. Even though these are self-reported assessments, and `being prepared' means different things to different people, they report some small progress over the past 12 months.

It is a mixed bag, however.  More people have assembled supplies, but fewer people report practicing emergency drills or habits.  More have learned their evacuation routes, but fewer have made a plan.  And while more have tested a family communication plan, fewer report having signed up for alerts or warnings. 

I don't know where the next big disaster will occur, or when.  I only know that natural disasters are becoming bigger and more common, and the next one (even if we only consider the United States) may only be days or weeks away. 

While you can't be prepared for every eventuality, the most common scenarios involve interruptions in services (power, water, internet, banking, etc.); which may last hours, days, or even weeks.

Having basic preps (food, water, first aid kit, emergency radio, etc.) can go a long way towards easing the misery.

The goal of #NatlPrep is to foster a culture of national preparedness, and to encourage everyone to plan and be prepared to deal with an event where they can go at least 72 hours without electricity, running water, local services, or access to a supermarket.

These are, of course, minimum goals.  I consider 2 weeks a far more prudent goal. 

 So . . . if a disaster struck your region today, and the power went out, stores closed their doors, and water stopped flowing from your kitchen tap for the next 7 to 14 days . . . you are you ready with:

• A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
• A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
• Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
• A way to provide light when the grid is down.
• A way to cook safely without electricity
• A way to purify or filter water
• A way to handle basic sanitation and waste disposal. 
• A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
• A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
• An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
• Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
• A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout

If not, you've got some important work to do. A good place to get started is by visiting Ready.gov.  

Some past blogs that may help you get started include:

#NatlPrep: Emergency Preparedness For Kids & Teens

#Natlprep: Cultivating Preparedness - One Gift At A Time

#NatlPrep: When Evacuation Is The Better Part of Valor

#NatlPrep: Disaster Buddies - The Most Important Prep Of All