Credit NIAID
# 7075
Reuters is reporting that Gregory Hartl of the World Health Organization, at press conference this morning, has stated that there is no sign of `sustained human-to-human transmission’ of the H7N9 virus in China.
Although a modification from previous statements (by the addition of the the qualifier `sustained’) – this isn’t really a major shift.
We’ve had suspicions that some limited H-2-H transmission may have occurred since as early as last Sunday, when we learned that 2 sons of one of the first victims were hospitalized, and one died (but as yet, neither have been proven to have caught the virus).
More than just semantics, in practical terms the difference between limited and sustained H-2-H transmission is huge.
As I discussed in my last blog (see China Reports 6th H7N9 Fatality) the basic reproductive number (R0 – or the virus’s ability to spread) largely determines any outbreak’s fate.
Limited transmission would produce a low R0.
While today’s announcement is somewhat reassuring, these are still early days, and data is still coming in.
This from Reuters:
No sign of sustained spread of H7N9 between humans : WHO
(Reuters) - The World Health Organization said on Friday that there was no sign of "sustained human-to-human transmission" of the H7N9 virus in China, but it was important to follow up on some 400 people who were in close contact with the 14 confirmed cases.
"We have 14 cases in a large geographical area, we have no sign of any epidemiological linkage between the confirmed cases and we have no sign of sustained human-to-human transmission," WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl told a news briefing in Geneva.
