Globally, weekly case incidence plateaued this week (29 November - 5 December 2021), with over 4 million confirmed new cases reported, similar to the number reported in the previous week’s figures. However, new weekly deaths increased by 10% as compared to the previous week, with over 52 500 new deaths reported. As of 5 December, nearly 265 million confirmed cases and over 5.2 million deaths have been reported globally. - WHO Epi Update #69
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Despite the seemingly good news from this week's WHO Epidemiological Report on COVID, many parts of the world - including Europe, The United States, and South Korea - are seeing increasing Delta COVID activity (see chart below), and Omicron appears to be on its way.
Even without the threat of Omicron, this past week the UK registered a 12% increase in COVID cases, and with Omicron numbers doubling every 2 to 3 days, there are deep concerns that their NHS could be overwhelmed this winter.
Almost exactly a year ago, the UK was facing a different emerging COVID variant (Alpha) (see UK Health Secretary Announces A New COVID Variant) - which forced the UK, and much of Europe, into lockdown just two weeks before Christmas.
After suffering another setback with Delta in the spring, the UK shed most of its pandemic restrictions last July, vowing never to resort to highly unpopular lockdowns again.
They did keep open the possibility of a modified `Plan B' if things got too far out of hand (see The UK's Autumn/Winter Pandemic Plan `A' & `B' and Their Planned Reliance on Booster Shots).
Their pandemic plan relied heavily on the continued uptake of COVID vaccines by the unvaccinated, the rollout of booster shots to millions of people, along with bolstering the NHS, continuing to `Test, Trace and Isolate' COVID cases, and encouraging the use of antivirals (monoclonal antibodies) and other therapeutics.
While the `carrot' to this plan was a continued return to more a `normal' life, they did warn of a `stick'; a `Plan B' if `Plan A' didn't work.
And with Omicron threatening to exacerbate an already difficult situation, there are now media reports suggesting that the UK may be considering invoking `Plan B' as soon as this week.
Yesterday, we saw renewed restrictions announced in Norway, and in Hong Kong, and over the past week we've seen dozens of countries impose new travel restrictions (including the United States), due to the recent rise of Delta and the perceived threat from Omicron.
This morning, headlines in the UK are claiming that `Plan B' is now very much on the table:
Ministers expected to sign off plan B Covid rules for England - The GuardianTighter Covid restrictions could reportedly be announced for England as omicron spreads - CNBCBritain could implement COVID-19 'plan B' as early as Thursday - reports - Reuters
Plan B: Boris Johnson set to approve new Covid restrictions as omicron cases surge - The Independent
Given the unpopularity of imposing further restrictions - particularly just weeks before Christmas - pulling this policy trigger is far from an easy decision for Britain's politicians.
The fact that they are seriously considering it now speaks to just how worried they are about both their recent surge in Delta, and the impending threat of Omicron.
